[sweetpete57@]

(YTD 7-6-1 +6.22 Units)

Still studying this weeks card, including some intriguing FCS Lines. I am pretty much the ONLY capper on here who takes time to study FCS games. My FCS record ATS this season so far is 3-1. Anywho, on to the selections...

Thursday...

AUBURN ML (-125) @ Miss. St. (2 Units)
I RARELY play MLs on games with spreads less than 3, but considering Auburn won 3-2 in this stadium last time out and there is essentially a unanimous agreement that this will be a close game, I don't mind the extra juice. I think Miss St.'s clobbering of Memphis last week gives us line value with Auburn. In fact, memphis is probably among the bottom 5 or 6 FBS programs this year, and probably won't win more than 1 or 2 games. Auburn allowed a lot of points to Ark. St., but their offense was unstoppable.

Home advantage is many times a non-factor in the SEC. I guarantee that there are at least 10,000 Auburn fans at this game, and Auburn has won in Starksburg the past 4 meetings. Auburn may allow some points, but their offensive firepower will be too much for Miss St. Auburn's defense wants to avenge for allowing so many points to Ark. St., whereas Miss St.'s defense may be over-confident just because they shut down a putrid Memhis offense.

Lets get the weekend started off on the right foot. GL everyone.

[ZBOIZ]

Auburn has no defense...none at all

[sweetpete57@]

Their defense has to be better than Memphis. Again, I think last weeks scores were misleading. SEC football is intense, and Miss St. doesn't have the offensive threat to overwhelm a sketchy Auburn defense. Again, it should be close, but Auburn will win.

[sweetpete57@]

I'm starting to like this weeks card more and more. Week 2 is always fun because the lines are lots of times based on misleading results from Week 1. I need to narrow my selections down, but these are my leans

Army -3 (hopefully it will drop back to 2.5)
Cal -10
Michigan +3.5
Ole Miss -20.5
USC -19.5
Syracuse +13.5
BGrn/Tulsa Over 62
Miami Fl +8.5
S. Car. -3
Nebraska -28

I'll also be analyzing the FCS lines once they become available on by 'book. Any input would be great, Good luck with Auburn tonight!

[Redman]

Thanks for the post. GL

[CBASS]

(YTD 7-6-1 +6.22 Units)

Still studying this weeks card, including some intriguing FCS Lines. I am pretty much the ONLY capper on here who takes time to study FCS games. My FCS record ATS this season so far is 3-1. Anywho, on to the selections...

Thursday...

AUBURN ML (-125) @ Miss. St. (2 Units)
I RARELY play MLs on games with spreads less than 3, but considering Auburn won 3-2 in this stadium last time out and there is essentially a unanimous agreement that this will be a close game, I don't mind the extra juice. I think Miss St.'s clobbering of Memphis last week gives us line value with Auburn. In fact, memphis is probably among the bottom 5 or 6 FBS programs this year, and probably won't win more than 1 or 2 games. Auburn allowed a lot of points to Ark. St., but their offense was unstoppable.

Home advantage is many times a non-factor in the SEC. I guarantee that there are at least 10,000 Auburn fans at this game, and Auburn has won in Starksburg the past 4 meetings. Auburn may allow some points, but their offensive firepower will be too much for Miss St. Auburn's defense wants to avenge for allowing so many points to Ark. St., whereas Miss St.'s defense may be over-confident just because they shut down a putrid Memhis offense.

Lets get the weekend started off on the right foot. GL everyone.

Sorry, but that couldn't be any further from the truth. SEC home advantage plays a huge role.

[sweetpete57@]

I used to think it did too, but most of these SEC teams have supportive fans that bring upward of 10-20,000 depending on the venue. In fact the only time Miss St. has beaten Auburn the last 9 yrs was in Auburn. The Year Florida won the Title, their only loss was at HOME to Ole Miss. Georgia has always been outstanding on the road under Coach Richt. I'm telling ya, check out the stats. Lots of underdogs pulling unexpected wins in the SEC.

[sweetpete57@]

Gotta Love starting off the weekend on a winning note! Looks like the majority of people on here took Miss St. What a shame. In reality, Auburn should have won this game by more, but there must have been an invisible electric fence at the red zone that the Auburn didn't want to cross in the second half. Horrible offensive play calling, but I'm no offensive coordinator.

Anywho, not touching WV/Marshall. WV should roll, but they tend to play down to lesser opponents. My make a play on Houston, but will post weekend picks Friday afternoon. Congrats to anyone who listened to me on taking Auburn!

YTD 8-6-1 +8.22 Units

[JC2008]

Good job Sweet Pete. Good luck on your future plays, I look foward to them!

[sweetpete57@]

Thanks JC!

[daprospecta]

Hey D.C. what is your unit system?

[sweetpete57@]

Hey D.C. what is your unit system?

Mine is the standard $100, but i prefer using units. When I start losing, I don't like to see that negative money amount

[sweetpete57@]

Before my selections, it should be noted that BetOnline offers reduced juice Friday afternoons, so my lines may reflect that. For instance, Army was -3 +100, and I bought .5 pt. 5Dimes also offers reduced lines but usually not until 12-18 hours before the games start. If no juice is noted, it is the standard -110. Good Luck this weekend folks.

Pick #1
ARMY -2.5 vs Hawaii (6 Units)
I don't care about Hawaii's QB, Army's struggle against 0-12 EMU, or whatever. The fact is, Hawaii is playing this game at 6AM local time and that IS the key factor. These aren't disciplined cadets starting a game that early. No, these are a bunch of halfwit Polynesians who go to a "university" where the most popular major is surfing. And even if that weren't a factor, Hawaii's defense was incapable of stopping USCs ground game, and all of a sudden they'll be able to stop a triple option? Um no. Hawaii's defense will be too busy flopping their flowing long hair around trying to figure out if the QB, FB, or RB is carrying the football. I'm not one of those "Bet 100 Units" bullshitters, so 6 is as high as I'll go on any game. Army wins 35-21.

Pick #2
CAL -10 vs. Colorado (-105) (4 Units)
Apparently shutting down an inept Colorado St. running game last week means that Colorado will be a force to be reckoned with in the Big 12, according to the linesmakers. Cal may end up being the best team in the Pac 10, but they always seem to choke once they get noticed. Lucky for us, nobody is giving them respect yet, so expect them to tear Colorado's defense to shreds. The only thing Coach Hawkins has done right at CU is show the world why you don't make your own son the starting QB at a Big 12 school. Cal wins 45-17

Pick #3
S. CAROLINA -3 vs Georgia (-105) (2 Units)
I was leaning towards Georgia before it was announced that AJ Green was suspended. Georgia seems to shine when nobody expects much out of them, and this is one of those years. Coach Richt has always been a force on the road, but the reality is, S.Carolina is the more experienced team, with a more experienced QB, and more offensive weapons. Spurrier makes a huge statement this game, and shows the Gamecocks could be the frontrunner for the SEC East. S. Carolina wins 31-17

Pick #4
SOUTH FLORIDA +16 @ Florida (-105) (2 Units)
I think Florida showed us last week that the post-Tebow era may not start so great. Clearly being ranked #4 preseason was just a tribute to what the team has done the past 4 years. South Florida is a talented team with a dangerous QB. Their defense is rather inexperienced, but I can't imagine that Miami (OH)'s D was exactly the 2000 Ravens when they shut down Florida last week. USF won at Florida St. last year, so don't expect them to be a pushover just because it's hostile territory. I really wouldn't be surprised if USF pulled the upset, but then again, Florida is probably much better than they played LW. Florida wins 24-20

Pick #5
NEBRASKA -28 vs. Idaho (-105) (2 Units)
Idaho was a pleasant surprise last year and looked great at times, that is until they played tough opponents. The allowed 70 to Nevada, and 63 to Boise St., their toughest 2 opponents. They lose their top rusher and receiver, and don't have enough weapons to threaten a tenacious Husker defense. Expect a down year for the potato-sackers, and watch Nebraska destroy another weak non-conference opponent. Nebraska wins 49-10.

Pick #6
MICHIGAN +3.5 @ Notre Dame (-105) (2 Units)
Quite simply, Michigan's QB Robinson is going to give ND fits all day. Just because the Irish may have finally found themselves a good coach, and just because they won their first game does not make this team a BCS contender. Coach Rodriguez saved his ass by winning vs. UConn, but it'll take a lot more than that to get the Big Blue Faithful back fully in his corner. QB was a huge question mark going into the season, but with Robinson, the Wolverines may have themselves a solid team. Michigan wins 27-21

Pick #7
MIAMI (FL) +8.5 @ Ohio St. (2 Units)
Two dangerous QBS. SHould be fun. Miami was a solid 4-2 on the road last year, and also upset then Top-10 Oklahoma at home. They aren't afraid of the big boys. They return the key elements of their offense from last year, and will be able to beat up a rather inexperienced Ohio St. DL. I think Pryor is the real deal, but the spread is just too high here. Miami will be able to put up enough points to keep it close. Ohio St. wins 34-28

Pick #8
TOTALS Play of the Week--- B. GREEN/TULSA +62.5 OVER (1 Unit)
I hate playing totals in college, but there's really nothing to analyze here. Tulsa has a strong offense, and absolutely no defense. Did you see their 'coverage' on that Hail Mary last week? I would have bet on the Over if the line were 72.5.

Pick #9 & 10
FCS Plays of the Week
ARIZONA -38.5 vs. Citadel (-120) (1 Unit)
Arizona will, contend for the Pac-10 title this year and absolutely destroyed Toledo last week. The Citadel is in the lower half of an FCS conference, and apparently enjoys being fodder for top notch FBS schools every year. It'll be hard for 'Zona not to put up 50 points, and i don't see the Citadel scoring at all. Arizona wins 56-0

COLGATE +10 & Furman (-120) (1 Unit)
Colgate is a top 25 FCS school (whatever thats worth) and is coming off a tough win last week. They're expected to win the Patriot League. Furman is a solid opponent, but this is their first game, and may be a little rusty. This will be a tough opening game for them, and I wouldn't be surprised if Colgate wins outright. It should be noted that 2 minutes after i got +10, the line dropped to +8 on 5Dimes. Colgate wins 31-24.

Ok, gotta go. Probably lots of typos, no time to proofread. Feel free to give me any feedback. Good luck this Saturday, gents!

[ackem19]

In regards to Hawaii not being able to stop the Triple Option, don't forget, they upset Navy last year when nobody thought they could stop the triple option. They did however allow 248 against Navy and they were playing in Hawaii. I believe that 6am factor will be the biggest problem for Hawaii. Should be an interesting game though. GL to you sir.

[sweetpete57@]

thanks. GL to you too. I wonder what % of the public is on Hawaii. seems like 80% of this forum is

[Pride]

The game is being played at home and on 9/11. They will be incredibly inspired for this game. Simple rule in sports is never to bet against a team playing inspired at home due to a jersey retirement or a special event of some kind.

I am with you with Army

[sweetpete57@]

Good call, Pride. I totally forgot about the 9/11 factor. It's all adding up to an Army route. I may place a bet on Air Force too. Everyone is pounding BYU in that game though. Air Force never beats BYU or Utah, so I'll still probably stay away from it.

[Pride]

One thing you may want to note is that the early start will not be as much of a problem as you make it out to be. UH practices at 6am back home so the start time shouldn't matter too much. There is definitely the possibility of some lag coming into play but seeing how UH arrived a few days early I predict the effect to be minor.

I will probably wait till close to game time to make a bet if I play this game but I am strongly leaning towards army. Inspiration is a powerful thing

[GoggsViggs]

Yup, go army! With u bro, BOL

[sweetpete57@]

thanks, goggs! good luck

[Redman]

I'm along for the ride. Thanks for the picks.

[sweetpete57@]

GL this week Redman! 14-0 Hawaii. Yikes. C'mon Army, do it for the 9/11 Victims!

[sprn]

I'm on Army too, BOL!

[sweetpete57@]

Well, the Army game isn't looking too good. I stand by my logic, but sometimes things just don't work out. USF and S. Car. looking good though. Can't win 'em all.

[sweetpete57@]

Here we go. Army is down 21-7 at Half. Time for my time-zone betting strategy to take effect. Let's do this, Cadets!

[sweetpete57@]

2 straight TDS Army only down 21-14! Let's do this!

[sweetpete57@]

21-21. That's right.

[sweetpete57@]

21 points for Army in less than 10 minutes in the 3rd quarter... Let's see, what I was saying about Hawaii's shit defense and the 6AM start?? Oh, I'm sure its just coincidence.

[RANDAZZO]

Do you like the Mich ML?

[sweetpete57@]

Do you like the Mich ML?

Oh yeah, definitely, but getting 3.5 is sweet because it allows for that FG loss, which is quite possible in a close game like this. BTW, weather is going to suck apparently, so who knows how that will affect everything. I NEVER play the ML on a Dog of 3 pts or more. Just my own discretion. Good Luck!

[RANDAZZO]

Thanks.

[sweetpete57@]

Gamecocks win. 1-0.

[sweetpete57@]

Well, Army, you made it interesting, but Congrats to Hawaii for proving me wrong on the time zone factor. Their defense turned it up in the 4th.

[sweetpete57@]

Early games turing sour. Thanks Nebraska, for throwing in the towel in the 2nd half. Lots more games ahead. I just need Cal to do what I expect them to do.

[sweetpete57@]

Well, it's a shame Army blew it, otherwise I'd be in a different mood. Effective immediately, 4 units will be my biggest play for now. that was a $1260 turnaround for me, and its not smart to put too much on one game. Oh well, for Week 2, I went 5-6... -4.3 Units. YTD I am now 12-12-1 (+1.92 Units). Oh well, still up for the year. What a crazy day of football!

Wins
AUBURN---close game as expected
S. CAR---pretty easy cover
CAL--Blowout, should have bet more!
MICHIGAN--Spread never really in doubt. Solid cover.
ARIZONA---Easy cover

Losses:
ARMY--awful start, blew two 4th quarter chances to take lead. still, I give Hawaii credit for playing 4 quarters
MIAMI---looked good for most of the game, horrible red zone INT was the key point spread play
NEBRASKA---1st half blowout, tanked in the 2nd half.
S. FLORIDA---looked like an easy cover in the 1st half, Florida finaly woke up this year in the 2nd half
COLGATE---Horrible pick, nothing to analyze
Tulsa/BGrn OVER---41 first half points, only 12 in the 2nd half. I stand by that pick.

I totally stand by 10 of my 11 picks. Yeah, I lost money this week, but I'm not worried. There were people in this forum saying that TENN, VANDY, BYU, FLOR ST. & GA TECH were locks! They all got whooped vs. the number. See ya guys next week. Thanks for reading my thread!