[Willie Bee]

Army (14) to sink Navy with solid air attack

Game Time: 12/01/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The 108th meeting between the two academies has the potential for a seesaw offensive affair. Take Army and the 14 points this afternoon when they take on Navy.

This will be the 108th installment of the Army/Navy rivalry, and it looks to be a good one for the first time in quite some time. Navy has currently won five consecutive meetings against Army, which ties the longest winning streak in the history of this series. Last season the Middies posted a 26-14 win over Army, pushing their overall lead in the series to 51-49-7.

The Midshipmen are coming off a win over Northern Illinois and have already accepted an invitation to play in the Poinsettia Bowl on December 20th. With Army only registering three wins on the year, this is their bowl game and they will most definitely give it everything they’ve got.

Army can’t stop the run (229 YPG allowed) and Navy can’t stop the pass (279 YPG). It just so happens that the Cadets excel in the passing game offensively, while the Midshipmen lead the county in rushing YPG (458 YPG). Each club boasts superstars on the offensive side of the ball. WR/KR/PR Jeremy Trimble is going to have a monster of a game, while all the Middies backs and QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada will most certainly shine.

The Over has been a cash cow in Navy games this year going 7-3 ATS, and the Over is a shining 8-1 ATS in the Middies' last nine neutral site games. The Over has also cashed in nine of the last 13 times the Cadets have taken on a +.500 opponent.

As for the pointspread, Navy is deemed 14-points better than Army. They’ve had trouble covering the spread in Paul Johnson’s sixth season at the helm going a bankroll depleting 3-8 ATS. I’ve seen enough of Navy’s defense this year to know that the Cadets passing attack will be successful, and the 14-point cushion they’ll be working under is more than enough for me to comfortably put my money on them. Navy’s allowed too many teams to hang around with them all season long, and there’s no reason to believe that doesn’t happen here again. Especially with this being such an emotional contest for both clubs.

This is an annual treat that diehard CFB fans should never miss. The game is played with so much emotion and it’s a wonderful representation of what collegiate sports are all about. This will be nip and tuck much like last year's game was, so grab the points as the Cadets cover for the second year in a row.

Free Pick: Army +14 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

On Oklahoma (-3) to win Big 12 vs. Missouri Tigers

Game Time: 12/01/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

Oklahoma is all that stands in the way of Missouri crashing into the BCS Championship. Sorry, Tigers, but the Sooners will crash your party a second time.

Missouri’s only loss all season was at Oklahoma and the Sooners may keep the Tigers out of the National Championship game. Missouri is a good team, but they are far from being the best team in the nation and they aren’t even the best team in their conference.

The Tigers are good offensively, rating at 1.0 yards per play better than average (6.4 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but Mizzou is just 0.4 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team). The Sooners, meanwhile, have been 1.2 yppl better than average on offense (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) and 0.7 yppl better than average defensively (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team).

Oklahoma isn’t as good as their season stats since their defense hasn’t been quite as good without DE Auston English the last four games (although English may play this week) and the Sooners’ offense is 0.1 yppl worse without RB DeMarco Murray and his 6.0 ypr. Also, the great numbers of quarterback Sam Bradford (8.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback) aren’t as good if you exclude the early season games he ran up his numbers against bad defensive teams North Texas, Utah State, and Tulsa.

Still, the Sooners’ attack is still 0.8 yppl better than average after adjusting for those factors. Oklahoma out-gained Missouri 5.9 yppl to 5.3 yppl in Norman but my math model projects only a 0.2 yppl advantage in this game. Where Oklahoma has an advantage in this game is in special teams and my math model favors the Sooners by 4½ points. Oklahoma-32, Missouri-28

Free Pick: Oklahoma -3 (-105)

© Copyright 2007. Reprinted with permission of the author.

[Willie Bee]

On Oregon State -1 at Oregon

Game Time: 12/01/2007 04:30 PM

By: Ted Sevransky | who2beton.com

Oregon's season has gone into an irreversible spiral down the tubes since QB Dennis Dixon was injured. Back the Oregon State Beavers today when they take on the Ducks.

Dennis Dixon has made quite a case for himself as the Heisman winner since he got hurt. Yes, you read that sentence correctly – Dixon’s absence has proven what a difference maker he was for the Ducks.

Before Dixon got hurt in the first quarter of the Arizona game on Nov 15, the Ducks had the most potent offense of any major conference team in the country. They’d put up 48+ in more than half of their games, gaining more than 250 yards on the ground and 225 through the air on average.

Brady Leaf got the nod when Dixon went down. Much like his maligned older brother Ryan, Brady struggled mightily when put in the spotlight. He, too, got hurt, leaving untested third and fourth string redshirt frosh QB’s Cody Kempt and Justin Roper to split time against UCLA last week. The results were predictable: Oregon got shut out. Now a team that was thinking national championship only two games ago in danger of finishing in sixth place in the PAC-10!

Mike Belotti’s teams have a long history of responding poorly to adversity. Last year the Ducks were 7-2 when they got blasted by USC. They lost their final three games of the season to finish at 7-6. We saw a similar late season collapse in 2004, when three season ending losses turned a promising season into a 5-6 disaster. In ’02 the Ducks were 7-2 before closing out the campaign with four consecutive defeats. With no quarterback, and a track record like the one described above, it’s not hard to make a case for another Duck meltdown here in 2007.

Meanwhile, very quietly underneath the radar, Oregon State has won five of their last six, the lone loss coming at USC. The Beavers have one of the strongest rushing defenses in all of college football, holding foes to 64 rushing yards per game (1.9 yards per carry) for the season. Mike Riley loves to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks; that's bad news for the Ducks young signal callers here. And while the Beavers are playing without their starting QB as well, backup Lyle Moevao has rebounded nicely from some early season struggles, guiding the Beavers to victory in each of his two starts.

Look for Moevao to make it three in a row with a win in Eugene on Saturday. Take Oregon State.

Free Pick: Oregon St. -1 (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Stanford Cardinal +13 to keep pace with California Golden Bears

Game Time: 12/01/2007 07:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com


California is reeling after peaking at number two, as they have lost five of six games while going 0-6 ATS. Underdog Stanford should be the more inspired team here.

Two struggling teams get together when the California Golden Bears meet the Stanford Cardinal this Saturday, but we feel that this game means more to Stanford, so look for a nice effort by the 13-poiont home dog.

California had national title aspirations entering this season, and those hopes were raised when the Golden Bears won at Oregon earlier this year, climbing to number two in the country in the process. However, beginning with a 31-28 home loss to the Oregon State Beavers where a win would have put them at number one, the Bears have inexplicably lost five of their last six games to fall to 6-5 on the season. Furthermore, the lone victory during this stretch was a narrow three-point win over the Washington State Cougars, meaning that Cal is on an 0-6 run against the spread. Given there high hopes earlier in the year, it is doubtful that winning this ancient rivalry game vs. a seemingly inferior opponent would do much to salvage their season.

On the other hand, nothing was expected from the Cardinal this year, yet they still managed to pull off possibly the biggest upset in football history by knock of the then top ranked USC Trojans on the road as 39-point underdogs. Stanford even posted another road conference win at Arizona, although they have since lost four games in a row including a loss to pitiful Notre Dame last week. Still, Stanford could erase the memories of the past month with another huge effort here, which is not impossible given California’s state of mind.

The Cardinal did cover as 30-point underdogs on the road in a 26-17 loss last season, and we look for them to again hang within single-digits here at home this year.

Free Pick: Stanford +13

[Willie Bee]

Play Navy -14 to ground Army

Game Time: 12/01/2007 12:00 PM

By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

Navy owns the No.1 rushing attack in the land, and they'll grind up yardage and points today against a porous Army rush defense. Play the Midshipmen as faves vs. the Cadets.

With its fifth straight Commander-in-Chief's Trophy on the line and off a bye, Navy will go for the jugular early against Army. On paper, this has all the technical ingredients needed for a blowout. Forget about the fact that the Midshipmen own a 17-9-1 ATS record in this series dating back to 1980. That's just icing on the cake. Instead, focus on the following team trends.
Play Navy -14 to ground Army

Since 1997, Army has been at its worst posting a dismal 48-67-1 ATS record including a miserable 3-19 ATS in this set running with rest. In addition, when matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .600, the Cadets have dropped 37 consecutive games straight up!

Meanwhile, since 1984 Navy has been in a zone when matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up loss notching a sizzling 70-29-1 ATS record. In this role on foreign soil or at a neutral site, the Middies improve to an amazing 48-13 ATS!

The Midshipmen rushing offense is ranked No. 1 in the country chewing up an average of 357.4 yards per game. This vicious ground attack will absolutely destroy a Cadets defensive front seven that has surrendered an average of 228.6 yards per game overland. Take Navy.

Free Pick: Navy -14 (-101)

[Willie Bee]

Arizona Wildcats (+7) vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Game Time: 12/01/2007 08:00 PM
By: Doc's Sports | 10starpicks.com

Arizona State's chances for a Rose Bowl bid will likely have been shot to hell when this one begins. Take Arizona and the points in this year's edition of the Territorial Cup.

It’s the annual Territorial Cup meeting between Arizona and Arizona State. The Sun Devils will know their Rose Bowl fate by the time this game kicks off and will likely have seen that USC destroyed UCLA. Thus, the best ASU can hope for is a trip to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego.

Arizona is playing for Coach Mike Stoops' job and an outside chance at receiving a bowl bid if they can even their record up at 6-6. The Wildcats have won three straight games and will not have played a game in 15 days since beating Oregon in mid-November. In those contests they have scored 48, 34, and 34 points and should be able to light up the scoreboard against a suspect Sun Devils defense.

This is a classic shootout type of game and with ASU having nothing to play for, they will be likely to survive this battle. ASU-38, Arizona-37.

Free Pick: Arizona +7 (-108)

[Willie Bee]

Louisiana Tech +7½ at Nevada

Game Time: 12/01/2007 04:05 PM
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV, will be the site for this week's WAC finale between the host Wolf Pack and Louisiana Tech. Back the visiting Bulldogs as the underdogs in this one.

Nevada sits at 5-6 after a crushing loss to San Jose State last week with a missed field goal late costing the Wolf Pack a chance at overtime. Just three bowl bids are allocated to the WAC but if Hawaii plays in a BCS game, the winner of this game would move into the #3 slot in the WAC at 6-6.
Louisiana Tech +7½ at Nevada

Although Nevada is a very strong team at home, the Wolf Pack have not played well in recent games, failing to cover in four of the last five. Louisiana Tech meanwhile has shown great improvement and actually gave the three top teams in the WAC very tough games.

The defensive numbers may be similar but the Bulldogs should have the edge as Louisiana’s Tech numbers are inflated by blowout non-conference losses to LSU and California. Nevada has to be emotionally drained after back-to-back losses and the chance for a bowl trip means more to Tech than to a Nevada program that has played in bowls the last two years.

Free Pick: Louisiana Tech +7½ (-110)

[greek]

how come you army on first pick , navy on last pick?

[Willie Bee]

Back Beavers (-1) to topple Ducks

Game Time: 12/01/2007 04:30 PM
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com

Oregon State is playing its best ball of the season while Oregon's season has gone in the dumps the last few weeks thanks to QB injuries. Back the Beavers against the Ducks.

Ever since Dennis Dixon tore his ACL prior to the Arizona game and went down against the Wildcats, Oregon knew it was in trouble. After losing that game and then losing to UCLA while scoring no points, any chance of a Pac-10 title and any sort of big bowl were gone. The Ducks have tossed in the towel and while they will try to win this game, the energy will not be close to the same if they were still in position to be playing for something.

Oregon St. meanwhile is playing its best football of the season as it has won five of its last six games with the only loss coming three games back at USC, arguably one of the top teams in the country right now. The offense could not get much going against the Trojans but the defense was solid as usual. The Beavers are banged up as well but coach Mike Riley said Thursday that tailback Yvenson Bernard will be a “game time decision” and that would be an even more of an edge.

Riley might be without his starting quarterback, but Oregon is in worse shape. Oregon has lost starter Dixon for the season, and backup Brady Leaf has two sprained ankles. Third stringer Nathan Costa has a knee injury and is out so it is up to fourth stringer Cody Kempt. The Ducks finished with 146 total yards last week against UCLA and while it could get better with another week of preparation, it won’t be easy.

Add RB Jonathan Stewart to the injury list as he had a bad toe but will play. A non-100 percent Stewart is not good considering that the Beavers come in with the top ranked rushing defense in the country. They have allowed 100 yards or more only three times all season long and a lot of that is due to 550 yards in losses thanks to 41 sacks, third best in the country so Kempt could be in for a long day.

The visiting team hasn't won the Civil War game since the Ducks beat the Beavers 49-13 in Corvallis in 1996, but this could be the year that string is finally broken. Play Oregon St. Beavers for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Oregon State -1 (-103)

[PerfecTrader]

how come you army on first pick , navy on last pick?

lmao good point

[chandler1981]

how come you army on first pick , navy on last pick?

Because it is 2 different handicappers free plays. He is lising everyones free picks. Fade most of em. These guys suck.

[Willie Bee]

Well, good luck fading both Army and Navy

[Capwizards]

lol...Check my Army Nay post for my play. Navy 1H is a nice play for that game.

[greek]

thanks most free picks lose anyway , your right