[Razz]

Rutgers +2.5
Indiana +8 (This opened 10? Damn.)
Colorado +4.5
Florida -7
Purdue -6.5
Illinois +3.5
LSU -10.5

[BuddyBear]

I like Indiana...will probably play them. The only thing holding me back is Indiana is the worst home dog bet there is in the country (sample size > 25) over the last 7 years (8-18 ATS) and if you go back even farther you'll see they have always been bad as a home dog (15-32 ATS since 1992). That might explain the high opening line. I still think Indiana is the right side. They fall into some tremendous systems this weekend though despite their poor history as a home dog:

Play Against - Any team (PENN ST) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)

Play Against - Road favorites (PENN ST) - a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 37 points or more last game. (36-11 since 1992.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)

Play On - Any team (INDIANA) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, with a winning record on the season. (90-46 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.2%, +39.4 units. Rating = 2*)

[Illusion]

I also love the Hoosiers. Should have grabbed it when 10 was out there.

[Razz]

By the way, these aren't my plays if anyone thought that, just some overreactions IMO (U Dub +11 is another one). No way in hell Rutgers or Illinois should be a dog. The LSU/Auburn line is a joke too, the Bengal Tigers will be a play for me, and would have been up to -14. Auburn is going to be lucky to get 3 points.

That's interesting about Indiana being the worst home dog in the nation. And for what it's worth, I think Penn State has a very good chance of winning out and possibly still winning the Big 10. But if they're ever to struggle, this would seem to be the week.

[onlooker]

Out of those teams you posted Razz, I like Indiana, Colorado and Purdue.

[pags11]

the Auburn vs. LSU line is not an overreaction...it's just reality setting in...

[BigBollocks]

They might be overreactions on your end Razz, but few of the lines you list are inflated like you may believe. I know you're relatively young, but people have blindly had this logic for years. "Bet on teams after losses, because they'll be soooo pissed off the next week" often seems to be the general consensus. Often times said teams just aren't as good as previously thought, or tend to take losses as negative instead of positive motivation the following week.

I had a buddy that used to work for the LVSC, and they would regularly inflate lines for a previously top ranked team coming off of a loss for the very reason you believe is groundbreaking thought. I can remember several years back him saying they had further padded a Texas line after they had just come off a loss because the general consensus would be that they would further pour it on Baylor or someone like that.

I know you love the game and probably already know this deep down, but virtually any tactic that you brainstorm that you believe is the new innovative way to take down every sportsbook has most likely been thought of and accounted for years before. It never hurts to pull up old stats and plug numbers to test any new theories you might have though. GL and I hope you do come up with some previously unknown way to make a fortune buddy....

[pags11]

I agree 100% bollocks...the fact that many gamblers are stubborn often works against them (and books know this and use this to their advantage)...the term I always use is not to throw good money away after bad...what I mean by that is that you have a team that lets you down one week and the next week you immediately jump back on them, thinking that they will "bounce back", "will be more motivated" or are "due"...often times it is the opposite, as once a team shows a propensity for not covering the number, their tendency will be more likely to continue that trend rather than reverse it (especially if they are or were a very high ranked and/ or public team)...the bottome line for me in the LSU vs. Auburn game is that LSU may not be as good as everyone has made them out to be combined with the fact that Auburn may be better than everyone is giving them credit for...I've read many posts the last three or so weeks about lines "being short" or "teams that will kill the other team", but the reality is that these are in-conference games where teams and coaches know eachother well and these games are very hard fought...in this particular portion of the season, it's very important to be careful when you decide to lay points...ultimately, a line that can appear to be "short" on Monday, often is not come Saturday afternoon or evening...

[BigBollocks]

I agree 100% bollocks...the fact that many gamblers are stubborn often works against them (and books know this and use this to their advantage)...the term I always use is not to throw good money away after bad...what I mean by that is that you have a team that lets you down one week and the next week you immediately jump back on them, thinking that they will "bounce back", "will be more motivated" or are "due"...often times it is the opposite, as once a team shows a propensity for not covering the number, their tendency will be more likely to continue that trend rather than reverse it (especially if they are or were a very high ranked and/ or public team)...the bottome line for me in the LSU vs. Auburn game is that LSU may not be as good as everyone has made them out to be combined with the fact that Auburn may be better than everyone is giving them credit for...I've read many posts the last three or so weeks about lines "being short" or "teams that will kill the other team", but the reality is that these are in-conference games where teams and coaches know eachother well and these games are very hard fought...in this particular portion of the season, it's very important to be careful when you decide to lay points...ultimately, a line that can appear to be "short" on Monday, often is not come Saturday afternoon or evening...

Very true and well stated as usual pags. Now we just need someone to come in and say that they just invented this new spanking fresh concept of "fading the public," and we'll have our inventing the wheel handicapping bases covered for the week

[NEP Dynasty]

Razz, Rutgers is going to get obliterated.

[Razz]

people have blindly had this logic for years. "Bet on teams after losses, because they'll be soooo pissed off the next week" often seems to be the general consensus.

That doesn't have anything to do with it. That's more the logic that people playing Texas or USC last week would have.

None of these overreactions has anything to do with teams being pissed. LSU should be at least a 2 TD favorite. They would have been 17 last week, but the line is a TD less because the officials stole a game from them? They've been the best team in college football all year by a wide margin, and if they win out, they'll win the national title. Their dreams aren't crushed at all, but the line is.
Auburn cannot move the football, let alone at LSU at night. There's no chance they score more than 10 points in this game. Auburn's defense is awesome, but once the offense starts going three-and-out every possession, they'll fold. I mean, I want Auburn to win as a fan, but I'm also a realist.
Let's put it this way, I was offered a ticket at face value to go with some of my AUB friends, and I said no. Not because I don't like them, not because I don't like visiting college football meccahs, but because I don't want to deal with drunk LSU fans taunting us when we leave halfway through the third quarter of a 24-0 game. That's about what I expect.

Florida can still win the SEC West, wants to honor their fallen teammate, etc., and has had a bye week to prepare for a team in a tremendous flat spot. I'm not playing Florida - the points, but the line is short (though this is the smallest overreaction of the 7) and I believe they'll win by DD.

I had Rutgers, Colorado, and Illinois all the favorites in their games. They may all lose, but taking points with any or all of those three is a good bet IMO.

Rutgers has proven more the past two years than USF, and while I respect what USF has done this year, it took them OT to beat Auburn, it took until the final minute for them to beat FAU, I'm not sure they're 50/50 to win at a well-coached, strong defensive team that has the best offensive player on the field. These are similar programs, and getting three with the home team against the team with all the pressure in the world for the first time in history ... I like that.

Colorado would have been favored in this game before losing like it did at K State. That was a very predictable loss IMO and should not influence this game at all. Colorado on the road - mediocre. Colorado at home - among the elite Big 12 teams. Kansas has played exactly one of the best 100 teams in America, and won by 6 against a flat team. It was a nice win, but not enough to convince me they should be a road fave against the best coach in the nation and an improving team.

I don't know if people are suprised that Michigan blew out Purdue or that Iowa beat Illinois, but both results were pretty obvious for me. But Iowa matches up so much better with Illinois than Michigan will. Michigan improving, but moblie QBs and good running games have bothered them. Illinois better defense as well. Illinois has already proven to me that it shouldn't be a home dog to anyone in conference.

We've already talked about Indiana a little, but also, Penn State is 2-5 SU on the road since the beginning of last year, with the wins against terrible Purdue (12-0) and Minnesota (28-27) teams last year. This line opened what it opened because a bad road Indiana team played bad on the road (duh) and a good home PSU team blew out a pathetic Wisconsin team at home. Now they go on the road.
I haven't decided yet whether I will have Indiana +, but either way I hope PSU struggles so I can have them PK or maybe even as a dog against OSU.

Gee, Iowa can stop the run? No kidding, of course they beat Illinois. But that run defense won't help this week, and look what Iowa has done away from Kinnick - lost @ horrible Iowa State and Wisconsin teams, and were blown out at PSU despite a +3 TO margin. I think Iowa is very comparable to the ND team that was a 21-point dog at Purdue.

[imgv94]

the fact that many gamblers are stubborn often works against them

[pags11]

the Auburn vs. LSU line is far from 7 points short...the officials didn't rob LSU of the game, they lost it on the field to a better team that day...those are absolutely ridiculous comments...I can't believe you actually believe this stuff razz...

I do believe this is an extremely bad spot for Kentucky and am not on them here, but again this line is not short...it's about time you started respecting Kentucky...you told everyone the line was short when Kentucky played Louisville (Kentucky covered), you again told everyone the line was short when they played Arkansas (Kentucky covered), again last week you told everyone that the line was short vs. LSU (Kentucky covered yet again)...

[taurus]

agree with pags and big bollocks here.
maybe Illinois should be favored over Michigan, but I kinda doubt it. and you really think they shouldn't be a home dog to tOSU ??

[BuddyBear]

I don't want to get into arguments about this team and that team so I am not really siding with anyone.

I think the line is about right. For the record, LVSC released Auburn +14 in thier opening line which i thought slightly high. That being the case, the offshores released a much lower number probably correcting for that although money is slowly starting to come in on LSU.

I really don't know what to say. Auburn looked horrible in thier first 3 games and LSU looked awesome. 3 games later LSU has looked very mediocre and Auburn has played much much better. That being the case, I am not sure what to expect in this game. Auburn is certainly going to have to do more offensively as 3 fgs (like they had in ARK game) against LSU will make an SU win near impossible and an ATS victory hard. But if LSU plays the way they have been lately it is going to be hard for them to cover win and/or cover.

Pretty much at this point if you are going bet this game you have to (1) figure out which Auburn team will show up---the one that struggled with KSU, SFU, and Miss St or the one playing really good ball right now (2) figure out which LSU team will show up and (3) assess the coaching matchup. Outside of question #3 it is hard for me to answer those questions.

No opinion but good luck to everyone who plays it....

[BuddyBear]

Of those top 3...i think rutgers, purdue, and colorado are the strongest if i had to pick three.

[bigboydan]

Glad to see I'm not the only one that likes Rutgers this week Razz.

[pags11]

buddy,

Auburn did not look "horrible" in their first three games...if you watched Auburn's first three games, you would have seen that their offensive woes were the issues...Brandon Cox had a hurt hand, Brad Lester was hurt, and their RB's were fumbling the ball like it was going out of style...it was their defense that played extremely well in their first three games and actually has played well for the entire year...we've seen that KSU is a solid football team, one of the best in the Big 12 North...they matched up very well with Auburn...Auburn came back to win the game with a strong 4th quarter...I believe Auburn had 5 turnovers in the USF game (most of them deep in their own territory) and still almost pulled out a win...in their 3rd game vs. MSU, MSU scored twice on pick six's where they returned the ball like 10 and 15 yards respectively for the score...other than that Auburn held them to a field goal...in their fourth game (which I feel was the turning point for their season so far), I'd say they let NMSU hang around for about 20 minutes and then they absolutely obliterated them...then in their 5th game they went down to Gainsville and held the potent Florida offense to 17 points and came out of their with the victory...they destroyed Vanderbilt (allowing only 7 points) in their 6th game and in their 7th game they went into a very hostile environment in Arkansas and shut down their trio of talented tailbacks, allowing only a touchdown in that game...

the LVSC line wasn't a bit high, it was a lot high which is why I told you on the phone yesterday that there was no way this line would come out at 14...Florida opens as ten point dogs (closes 7), and they aren't near the team defensively Auburn is and now Auburn opens 11.5 and people suggest the line is "low"?...

I know you are a baseball fan so hopefully you will appreciate this analogy in regards to your 3 field goal comments...anyone thinking that because Auburn only scored nine points in their game vs. Arkansas that somehow they won't be able to muster up enough points to hang with LSU is quite ridiculous...in baseball, or any sport for that matter, games take on an identity...what I mean by that is that sometimes two teams battle it out and the game takes on a pitcher's dual mentality, where teams play for one run (in this case, play for field position and are conservative with their playcalling)...once Auburn built the lead in this game, they played ball control and just attempted to move the chains...however, when they did go down at the end of the game, they promptly moved the ball down field rather rapidly for the game winning score...each game is independent of all others and Auburn will be able to move the ball on the "invincible" LSU defense...how many points will they score?...I'm not sure...but with that defense of theirs, they will remain in this game deep until the fourth quarter...

aren't teams recent performances more of an indicator of how a team will play in an upcoming week vs. comparing the type of ball they were playing 7 weeks ago?...I think you'd agree with me that seasons are long and teams have their ups and down...this is clearly a game of teams heading in opposite directions...in no way am I saying that LSU isn't a good team, they are extremely talented (while very poorly coached), but ultimately they just don't have things clicking right now...Auburn, however, does...you've touched on the coaching matchup but I'll take Tuberville any day of the week (and twice on Sundays) vs. Miles...

[tab]

Partner,
I really like your pick on Rutgers +2.5 on Thursday night against SF. I took Rutgers +4 (buying 1.5 points) even though I think Rutgers will win the game outright. THe real pressure is on SF because of being ranked #2. This team has never been in this situation before. Rutgers is playing for respect and a bowl bid. They will play hard and I do not seem them losing a third straight home game this season. As a home underdog, they 8-2 ATS in their last ten. I really like the points in this game. I also like Colorado straight up against Kansas. There is no way Kansas will win at Colorado. THis is revenge game in which Colorado lost 20-15. Taking plus 4 points is real bonus. Colorado is tough at home and only way to move up in the rankings and get bowl bid is to beat ranked oponents. Colorado by 10.

[Razz]

I do believe this is an extremely bad spot for Kentucky and am not on them here, but again this line is not short...it's about time you started respecting Kentucky...you told everyone the line was short when Kentucky played Louisville (Kentucky covered), you again told everyone the line was short when they played Arkansas (Kentucky covered), again last week you told everyone that the line was short vs. LSU (Kentucky covered yet again)...

I took a nip on KY +10 in that game, and never said the line was short. It would have been a large play if I could have gotten the opening number, but I wasn't around to get it. The only two times I've said the line was short against Kentucky was at home against Louisville and at South Carolina. @ Arkansas was just a terrible situation for them, and they did manage to win, though that was almost all on the strength of Houston Nutt being a terrible, and soon to be unemployed, coach.

[Razz]

In lieu of LSU -11 or so, I will be playing Auburn's team total under (15?) when it comes out. I don't know if this is going to be 45-7 or 13-10, but I will be very surprised to see Auburn find the end zone more than once in this game. Maybe it will be best of both worlds and they'll win 10-7 (though that would hurt my USC losses vs. LSU losses bet that I have with a friend).

Here's what I did go with:

1* Rutgers +3 - I just found this number hard to ignore. Yes, USF can stop the run, but Rice ran for 202 yards and two touchdowns in Tampa last year. I'm not saying he'll duplicate that, but not enough has changed for Rut to be a home dog in nasty weather. Only a minimum play because of USF's defense. I'd lean strongly to under as well.

1* Wyoming +3 - Wyoming's run defense perfect solution for slowing down AFA. Cowboys gave a shoddy effort last week, but can rebound here against a team with much less athleticism than NM. AFA number one public play at wagerline.

2* Colorado +4.5 - to steal a line from the Wizard of Oz, "We're not in Kansas any more". Neither are the Jayhawks, who went undefeated SU and ATS in state. Now they travel to a hostile environment and play by far the best defense they've played all year. Wrong team favored.

1.5* Utah State +7 - actually think this could be the best play on the board, but find it hard to trust USU for more than this amount. Courtesy of Marc Lawrence:

"Play on any winless college home dog in Game Seven that is playing with revenge against an opponent that is not winless - 15-1 (94%) ATS since 1980."

USU qualifies, but more than that, I think this is a bad spot for the Wolfpack after the 4OT loss at Boise Sunday. The Pack looked good, but it's going to be difficult for them to show much interest in a winless opponent that they beat 42-0 last year.

1* Texas Tech +3.5 - I'll take the better team with road revenge, a spot in which Leach has thrived. Fluky win for Missou last year - it won by 17 despite being outgained by 150 yards - and only OU fumbles kept the score respectable last week (and led to me miraculously middling the game). Texas Tech has the better defense, the number one offense in the nation, the much better coach, and I just think the Red Raiders get it done here.

1* U Dub +11.5 - Scary bet to make, but Oregon is missing a couple playmakers, and Locker & Co. have been very good at home. They also controlled the game against ASU for a half before melting down. Ty has always been a good dog.

1.5* Purdue -6.5 (public play, but I couldn't lay off this one) - Iowa had everything going for it last week, playing against a flat team more interested in Michigan than the Hawkeyes, a team with little passing game, and still had to intercept a pass at its goalline just to win. That win and a couple Purdue losses will mean the Boilermakers are fully focused here, and Painter should have a field day against a weak secondary. I don't think the Iowa offense can keep up, even against a weak Purdue defense.

1.5* Illinois +3.5 - I'd take Illinois pk at home against anyone in the Big 10, +3.5 against the third or fourth best team is obviously a must bet for me. People smarter than myself have talked about how well the Illini spread will work against the Michigan defense. Hart being banged up doesn't hurt. He'll play, but Leman and company will make his pain intensify.

1* Troy -18.5 - I had North Texas +7 last week against a flat ULM team, they won by 10, but it was a fluky game if ever there was a fluky game. Troy won't be taking them lightly now, and the Trojans are highly superior in every aspect of the game, and they've had an extra week to prepare. UNT defense might be the worst in the nation.

Good luck this week gentlemen, I'll be back on Sunday night.

[taurus]

Good looking slate.
I stongly agree with Utah State and Purdue.
GL

[pags11]

razz,

you must not have been watching the same Missouri vs. OU game we were all watching...it was actually Missouri's turnovers that cost them the outright win as they outplayed OU in every quarter but the first...

as far as your picks go, I don't disagree with any of them except for obviously Texas Tech...all your points are valid, but you fail to mention the lack of run game from Texas Tech (which will lead to turnovers in this one), their suspect ATS road record in conference (also 0-2 straight up and ATS in their last 2 trips to Columbia) and how they've given up an average of 36.5 points their last two road games (and with all due respect to Oklahoma St.'s offense, Missouri's is even more potent...hell a putrid Rice offense put up 24 points on Texas Tech's defense), and the fact that Missouri is undefeated ATS this year (not a trend I'd feel comfortable going against)...lastly, lets look at schedule strength...Texas Tech has played: SMU (terrible), UTEP (average at best), Rice (terrible), Oklahoma St. (good home team, good offense, terrible defense), Northwestern St. (are you serious Mike Leach?), Iowa St. (terrible), Texas A&M (talented, but a below average Big 12 team at this point) ...Missouri has played: Illinois (surprise of the Big 10 this year), Ole Miss (improved SEC team, especially at home that Florida and Alabama were lucky to escape out of Oxford with wins), Western Michigan (arguably the most talented team in the MAC), Illinois St. (terrible), Nebraska (talented but terrible, but Missouri did beat the hell out of them), then OU (one of the best teams in the country that they played toe to toe with for 3 1/2 quarters)...say what you want about Gary Pinkel, but they guy is covering the number with his team and he has the more talented overall team in this one...Mike Leach has Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree (impressive, but he's just one player), Danny Amendola (good possession receiver) and Shannon Woods (good scat back, but not better than Tony Temple)...I'm not sure where to start with Missouri's offense, but honestly I'd take Jeremy Maclin over Crabtree as an overall talent, not just based on stats...Missouri has two of the best TE's in the country (Rucker and Coffman, which by the way Texas Tech doesn't even use their tight end much)...if you are able to cover all of those players, then you still have to deal with WR's Franklin, Saunders and Alexander. OK, let's just say that Leach uses his Master's in football or whatever the hell he after he was a failed attorney to figure out how to defend ALL of those players...then you have to contend with the mobility of Chase Daniel...I've been handicapping college football for 23 years now, and I'm not sure I've ever seen an offense as difficult to stop as the one Missouri possesses...not to mention, I'd take Missouri's defense over Texas Tech's (regardless of what the stats say, because as I've stated previously Texas Tech's strength of schedule has inflated their defensive numbers)...lastly, those that think that Missouri will somehow be bummed after their loss last week to OU are mistaken...the way they looked at that game was a great character building game, if they came out of Norman with a loss they would still be OK, as they still have a legit chance to win the Big 12 North (a team goal) and also get a re-match with OU in the Big 12 Title game...

you may cash this ticket, but going against Missouri in Colombia vs. a suspect Texas Tech team is risky business in my opinion...

[rjt721]

I1* Texas Tech +3.5 - I'll take the better team with road revenge, a spot in which Leach has thrived. Fluky win for Missou last year - it won by 17 despite being outgained by 150 yards - and only OU fumbles kept the score respectable last week (and led to me miraculously middling the game). Texas Tech has the better defense, the number one offense in the nation, the much better coach, and I just think the Red Raiders get it done here.

Agree with all your plays except this one. Tech the better team than Mizzou? I don't see it. Seems to me the only distinct advantage Tech holds in this game is Leach over Pinkel. Tech hasn't beaten anyone this year, and the only team they faced with an offense capable of scoring enough to compete, they lost. And as good as Okie State' offense is, Missouri's is much better.

As for the OU game last week (was big on the Sooners .... also middled thanks to the late TD, even though he never crossed the goal line), OU's two turnovers hurt and resulted in 2 TD's for Mizzou, but the game was much more competitive than you make it seem. Missouri also had 2 turnovers that directly resulted in OU scores - a terrible call on a WR pass involving Macklin as Mizzou was going in for a score, as well as Daniel fumbling deep in OU territory early in the 4th Q that essentially put the game away. If not for these two turnovers, as well as 2 Daniel INT's, Missouri could've easily escaped Norman with a victory. They moved the ball at ease against the Sooners, particularly in the second half, and the defense did a great job of stopping OU's running attack before tiring in the 4th Q. The game was much closer than OU's late 17-pt. lead would indicate.

Returning home, I think Missouri exposes a one-dimensional Tech team that hasn't beaten anyone of significance this season.

Good luck with the rest of your plays, Razz. I'm with you on Colorado, Rutgers (ML), and Purdue.

[Razz]

And as good as Okie State' offense is, Missouri's is much better.

Shit, I don't know about all that. I mean, I like Daniel, I love the TEs, but Temple is banged up, the receivers are ordinary ... the Missou offense is good, maybe even real good, but I don't think it's world class or anything.

For me, there's just a big difference in playing at a well-coached team with a very good offense and no defense and laying six into revenge from a 17-point comeback win, and playing at a poorly-coached team with a very good offense and no defense and catching over a field goal with revenge from a game you dominated statistically.

But that's me. I understand why someone would play Missouri here, I just think they're inferior on both sides of the ball and on the sidelines.

[Razz]

Pags, I get your points (though it's difficult to read one 656 word paragraph ), I even know why someone would lay the number here - honestly, that was my initial feel as well before I started doing a little research and remembering the fluky game last year. While there's a time to lay points with an inferior team, - maybe Maryland, maybe Alabama, maybe even Nebraska if you've got brass balls - I just don't think this is it.

I just feel this TT team is a clear #2 in the Big 12. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. We'll know a lot more about all that on Saturday I guess. And it's not like it's my GOY or anything. It's a 1 unit play.

But guys, Oklahoma dominated that game except for that stretch late in the 3Q. If you didn't see it that way, well, it's not worth arguing, but wow, I can't believe anyone would take issue with that.

[Aces]

Razz bet with your head not your heart. I'm on Tenn big time this week and you know where my heart is.

[Razz]

Razz bet with your head not your heart. I'm on Tenn big time this week and you know where my heart is.

You've got the wrong side brother.

[imgv94]

But guys, Oklahoma dominated that game except for that stretch late in the 3Q. If you didn't see it that way, well, it's not worth arguing, but wow, I can't believe anyone would take issue with that.

Are you drunk or blind?

I had Oklahoma in that game, but C'mon Missouri outgained Oklahoma in yardage and had more first downs and more turnovers.

How could anyone say Oklahoma dominated anyone.

[pags11]

imgv,

I appreciate your objectivity in this matter...

by the way, the mention of laying points with Maryland this week is absolute suicide...

[pags11]

rtj,

good shit bro...good to hear another person (one that also had the OU side) see the game like I did (and most did for that matter)...

I agree 100% with your analyis on the Missouri vs. Texas Tech game...

sometimes we can try so hard to make a contrarian play, that we miss the true play...

[Razz]

Are you drunk or blind?

I had Oklahoma in that game, but C'mon Missouri outgained Oklahoma in yardage and had more first downs and more turnovers.

How could anyone say Oklahoma dominated anyone.

Look, I'm thrilled I hit my 1.5 point middle because OU missed four point after attempts and fumbled twice when it could have stepped on Missouri's throat, but OU was the right side and my getting off that bet was a mistake. A lucky mistake, but a mistake. Missouri ran for under 2 yards a carry! OU punted less, fumbled more (interceptions aren't luck when you can't run the ball and have to throw it virtually every play), and averaged more ypp. They were the better team for all but a 10-minute span in the 3Q.

In that 10-minute span, Missouri looked like a top-5 team. But can Gary Pinkel have a team play like that for the better part of a game against a team with relatively equal talent on both sides of the ball?

But, you know, the OU/Missou game isn't relevant. Texas Tech isn't OU. It's an entirely different team offensively - probably better, but certainly different - and not close to as good a team defensively.

OU is obviously the class of the conference. Evidently everyone else feels that Missouri is the 2nd best team, I feel that it is TT. You know, I guess we'll see Saturday.

I'm tired of talking about this game, bitch at me about one of the games on which I'm taking a strong stance.

[imgv94]

1* Texas Tech +3.5 - I'll take the better team with road revenge, a spot in which Leach has thrived. Fluky win for Missou last year - it won by 17 despite being outgained by 150 yards - and only OU fumbles kept the score respectable last week (and led to me miraculously middling the game). Texas Tech has the better defense, the number one offense in the nation, the much better coach, and I just think the Red Raiders get it done here.

Wait a moment, here you're saying that Oklahoma is going kill Missouri..

Boomer Sooner -9 (Thanks for running it up Missouri. No ****ing way this line should be in single digits. Missou gets blown out every time it goes to Norman. Gary Pinkel + horrible defense + home favorite that just re-entered the national title race = blowout.)

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/newreply.p...reply&p=370481

Now you say you middled the game

Why would you middle the game if you were so confident that Oklahoma would kill them?

Who knows Maybe you have a real strong opinion on the game , it's good to see you posting your picks this week so we won't have any confusion about what side you're on.

Honestly Razz, you totally flip flopped here.

[onlooker]

I also like Purdue, Colorado and Troy this week Razz.

Good luck.

[Razz]

Wait a moment, here you're saying that Oklahoma is going kill Missouri..



http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/newreply.p...reply&p=370481

Now you say you middled the game

Why would you middle the game if you were so confident that Oklahoma would kill them?

Who knows Maybe you have a real strong opinion on the game , it's good to see you posting your picks this week so we won't have any confusion about what side you're on.

Honestly Razz, you totally flip flopped here.

I did flip flop on the game, Sunday or Monday when I posted that, I was thinking 41-17 or so. As the week went on, I began thinking about the holes in OU's secondary and the thought of laying more than a FG with TCU's offense on the road, and I sent Buddy these two e-mails:

Got off TCU -3.5 with Stanford +6 ... so nice middle opportunity there.

Also have OU -9 and Missouri +10.5, so obviously a 10-point win there would be nice.

Middled the second one nicely - though I made the bet about this time on Wednesday night/Thursday morning in fear that Bob would come with Missouri and send the line back to 9. Obviously he came with OU so that was regretful, though ultimately irrelevant.
The TCU/Stanford should have actually won, but you already know about that.

I don't always hold my positions on games. Probably 90% of the time I do, but sometimes I have almost a sixth sense - or just a pessimistic attitude - that urges me to get off a particular play.