This line reflects last year so much. There's no rational explanation for LSU being an 18-point favorite against South Carolina, dominating, and only being a touchdown favorite here.
It's basically saying Florida is an equal team - because LSU at home at night is worth at least 7 points - which is comical. I honestly wouldn't feel good about having anyone in the nation +7 @ LSU at night, and especially not a team with far less talent and experience on both sides of the ball.
Florida can't run the ball against anyone, and now they face the best run defense in the country. Tim Tebow passing the ball against that secondary? If I'm a Bengal Tiger fan, I'm licking my chops at that prospect.
And where to start with the Florida defense? We knew all along they weren't any good - giving up 55 points to Troy and Ole Piss was a good indication of things to come - but making Brandon Cox look like an All American? That can only be done by a clueless secondary. Matt Flynn will pick them apart, and if they start dropping into coverage, the LSU backs will run wild.
In the preseason I said LSU would go unbeaten and Florida would go 8-4. A lot of people thought the second part of that was crazy, but I think LSU will continue to prove why eight wins might even be optimistic for this still highly overrated Gator team.
A couple years ago, I had one of the luckiest wins of my life with Florida +6.5 @ LSU. The Gators had a +5 TO margin in that game, and still lost by 4. I think that more than anything explains how difficult it is to go to Baton Rouge and win. If the TO margin is even in this game - and given the two QBs and defenses, LSU would be the favorite to win the TO battle - LSU should have little problem winning by double digits.
I don't know who's going to win this game, but LSU -7 is a very good bet. They'll avenge a fluky loss in the Swamp with a lopsided victory at home. Urban Meyer's road ATS record falls to 2-9 and he geauxs home a big loser.
I got it before the doctors plays came out, at LSU -8.5. That was a mistake by me because that was a game I was going to wait on but bet it early Thursday morning. I still think it won't matter though, because that score Razz just posted is about what I expect.
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Lsu -7
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