[homie1975]

I think they can.

I truly do.

Michigan in a very interesting situation after 2 straight very emotional, hard-fought games without their leader Jimmy Har-baw at Penn State and hosting Ohio St sandwiched by Maryland who damn near beat them.

Now they are heading to INDY north of 3 TD faves in a game they need only win by 1 point to make it to the college footies version of the final 4.

Iowa cannot move the ball for dog squat threw the air but they have some decent runners and a group of defenders who will knock the snot and slobber out of ya.

To boot, their special teams are quite sound.

This feels like a 27-10 type of affair.

Taking a flyer here on IOWA +22.5

[19th Hole]

Homie is on to something here:

Iowa is giving up 12.2 points a game, fourth best in the nation. If it stays that way it would be the best such total for the Hawkeyes in 42 years. Iowa's defense has scored more safeties (three) than the opponents have scored rushing touchdowns.

[homie1975]

Thanks 19th-er

that is a crazy stat.

[swordsandtequila]

O/U for Iowa 1st half is 0.5

[innovation]

Iowa’s punter Tory Taylor is off the charts good. They take pride in not driving the ball outside their own 30 and punting 60+ yards 6+ times a game. Unfortunately they haven’t been winning the turn over margin and their place kicked is Luke warm at best. If this game wasn’t played indoors the total might look like the Nebraska game as you have two of the top 3 defense against points.

penn state the only real team both have played, dismantled Iowa 31-0 with 4 turn overs and gave up 76 total yards. They also didn’t try to pound the rock inside the red zone, short passes of 2,3,7 and 9 yards all resulted TD’s.

Random tidbits. Michigan won by 39 vs Iowa in their last conference championship matchup. Michigan is 4-2 ATS vs Iowa (since 1997) when favored by double digits. The only time they where favored by over 20 (-24) they lost the game outright 13-14 @ Iowa.

[DJK]

O/U for Iowa 1st half is 0.5

Yeah and yet homie is taking Iowa. It doesn't matter how good a defense they have if they cannot score.

Iowa lost 31-0 to Penn State this year (-14.5).
They lost 27-14 to Michigan last year (-10.5).
They lost 42-3 to Michigan 2 years ago (-12).

It probably won't be much different this time around. Too bad the spread is so high for me to take Michigan, but I still might take them anyway.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Iowa played one real team this year and lost 31-0 to Penn St. They gave up 115 points in their other 11 games but Michigan is a completely different animal; Michigan minus the points or nothing.

[homie1975]

the penn state 0-31 game was AT penn state a long time ago.

this is now in INDY at neutral location and all UM needs to do is win by 1 point and they advance to the CFP.

these are 19-23yo kids who just played two of the three biggest games of the season and must be emotionally spent (if they are human).

at penn state and v ohio state were monster games, won by 8 or fewer points, now they can exhale a bit as their coach comes back and i think they get to INDY, get a 14-17 point win, and get out of dodge.

that IOWA D is going to punch them in the mouth and it is The Hawkeyes SUPER BOWL

[Renegades]

It’ll prob be 27-3. Iowa will have first and goal from the 1 and settle for a fg lol

[Renegades]

2 running plays for no yards, false start on 3rd down, incomplete pass on 3rd and goal from the 6. Kick the fg baby. Thats Iowa football

[homie1975]

the line is now widely available at 21.5 whereas when i posted it was widely at 22.5

i got a decent number.

do i have some followers perhaps moving the lines

(that's a joke)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yeah BOL down to 21.5 1975. GL to you. I will be watching the action but laying low.

[Eddy Munny]

If you think Iowa scores a TD you might as well just bet over their team total.

[homie1975]

Yeah BOL down to 21.5 1975. GL to you. I will be watching the action but laying low.

Thanks Rider

[homie1975]

If you think Iowa scores a TD you might as well just bet over their team total.

good point EM

but once they score (assuming they do) then i won't be sweating any more.

i prefer to sweat the whole game and lose some mos off my life worrying about the 22.5 point cover.

[getaloadoffatso]

I think they can.

I truly do.

Michigan in a very interesting situation after 2 straight very emotional, hard-fought games without their leader Jimmy Har-baw at Penn State and hosting Ohio St sandwiched by Maryland who damn near beat them.

Now they are heading to INDY north of 3 TD faves in a game they need only win by 1 point to make it to the college footies version of the final 4.

Iowa cannot move the ball for dog squat threw the air but they have some decent runners and a group of defenders who will knock the snot and slobber out of ya.

To boot, their special teams are quite sound.

This feels like a 27-10 type of affair.

Taking a flyer here on IOWA +22.5

This has degenerate play written all over it

I love it

[bjb7223]

Homie no thank you on this one, Iowa's offense is stuck in 1936.

[homie1975]

This has degenerate play written all over it

I love it

flattery will get you nowhere!

but i did send you 5 betpoints and i nominated your post.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

It's a possibility that Michigan will continue their "Us vs. the world" act and decide to run up the score to "prove" they can win big without sign stealing; I can see Harbaugh making it the centerpiece of his pregame speech.

[homie1975]

It's a possibility that Michigan will continue their "Us vs. the world" act and decide to run up the score to "prove" they can win big without sign stealing; I can see Harbaugh making it the centerpiece of his pregame speech.

it did not work against the Penn St and Ohio St defenses and Iowa really packs a punch on that side of the rock.

[RM Logic]

Iowa will have more punts than points. If you can find that bet it is a sure winner.
Their fans will celebrate their TBall participation trophy.
How many fans will have those PUNTS Tshirts on again?

[homie1975]

close but no cigar.

[bjb7223]

close but no cigar.

[homie1975]

only missed by 3.5 points !

[asiagambler]

only missed by 3.5 points !

For Iowa that's not close

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Iowa will have more punts than points. If you can find that bet it is a sure winner.
Their fans will celebrate their TBall participation trophy.
How many fans will have those PUNTS Tshirts on again?

Nice post/prediction. In predicting a big upset, you have to look for something unexpected to happen.

In the case of Iowa, their strengths are:
1) Punter
2) Punt Returner
3) Good Defense

*With Dejean out, they weren't likely to get a big Punt Return.
*The punter can flip the field. The long Punt Return they conceded was huge. Flipped the field.
*While the Defense is good, Iowa was going to need some combination of: 2+ Turnovers and 2+ Injuries to swing this game.

...As long as Michigan avoiding gift-wraps, they were OK. Such an easy game for them.
...By the way, Mich did mangle the playoff game vs TCU last year. Conceded two pick-sixes.