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Week 7 college football picks, bets, nuggets 🏈
'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 7 college football picks, bets, nuggets
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College football season is in full swing, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica to continue their prognostications.
Dating back to 2010, the last 12 ranked teams to pull a home upset and face another ranked team as an underdog the following week are 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS. The only win came in 2014 with Ole Miss at A&M the week after the Rebels upset Alabama.
Here we go with Week 7 picks. The Bear is 9-0 the last two weeks. Enjoy Week 7.
The plays
Stanford Steve (2-3 last week, 17-11-2 overall)
The Bear (4-0 last week, 14-11-1 overall)
Charlotte 49ers at Florida International Panthers (-5.5, 61)
Stanford Steve: The 49ers are off a bye week and the Panthers are fresh off a win over UMass. Both teams are still looking for their first win in conference play. Charlotte is 0-4 vs. FIU, losing the last three by a total of nine points, which includes two one-point losses. The 49ers' new regime under Will Healy leads C-USA and ranks in the top 30 in FBS in scoring at 35.8 PPG and rushing yards per game at 219. They also have had great success when getting to the red zone, scoring 14 TDs on 17 trips. I think the 49ers can win the game, but we'll take the points.
Pick: Charlotte +5.5. Charlotte 31 FIU 29
North Texas Mean Green at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4, 58.5)
Stanford Steve: Both teams start conference play off a bye after playing some good competition in nonconference play. Plenty of people thought the Mean Green would win their side of Conference USA, but they have plenty of doubters now after they got handled by the Houston Cougars. Houston started a new quarterback and gave it to North Texas, returning a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown and winning 46-25. You have to think head coach Seth Littrell, who was a hot commodity in the offseason, got his team grounded during the bye week and got their attention. They have plenty of talent, led by quarterback Mason Fine, who has already thrown for 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns. I like the Mean Green to cover on the road.
Pick: North Texas +4. North Texas 28, Southern Miss 27
Ole Miss Rebels at Missouri Tigers (-12.5)
The Bear: The introduction of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has added a dimension to the Rebels offense that Rich Rodriguez can utilize. Factor in the loss of linebacker Cale Garrett for the Tigers and Missouri's task is a bit tougher. Outside of the game against Alabama, Ole Miss' defense hasn't played too poorly, and I'd imagine they are probably kicking themselves for close losses to Memphis and Cal. I think the Rebels hang around here.
Pick: Ole Miss +12.5
USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11)
The Bear: The Trojans outgained Washington in Seattle two weeks ago but were done in by three Matt Fink interceptions and one 89-yard run by Salvon Ahmed (his other 16 carries netted 64 yards). Kedon Slovis is back for USC at quarterback, and he's got some weapons at wide receiver if injuries to Notre Dame's Shaun Crawford and Daelin Hayes affect the Irish defense against a much better offensive unit than they faced last week in Bowling Green. Will the return of Irish running back Jafar Armstrong boost a unit that managed just 322 total yards against Virginia and 321 at Georgia? If the Trojans can avoid the game-altering turnover they suffered at Washington -- and the ones Virginia did itself in with two weeks ago -- they can hang around here.
Pick: USC +11
Iowa State Cyclones (-10) at West Virginia Mountaineers
The Bear: According to our power rankings, Iowa State is a top-20 team. West Virginia is outside the top 70. The Cyclones haven't run it very well this year, but the Mountaineers haven't fared too well against the run, nor have they forced too many turnovers. Quarterback Brock Purdy could give them fits. Iowa State ate apart a much better West Virginia offense last year, and if the Mountaineers continue to throw interceptions, it will likely mean a second straight double-digit home loss.
Pick: Iowa State -10
Stay-away games
The Bear
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (-2, 43.5)
Stanford Steve: Both teams start conference play off a bye after playing some good competition in nonconference play. Plenty of people thought the Mean Green would win their side of Conference USA, but they have plenty of doubters now after they got handled by the Houston Cougars. Houston started a new quarterback and gave it to North Texas, returning a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown and winning 46-25. You have to think head coach Seth Littrell, who was a hot commodity in the offseason, got his team grounded during the bye week and got their attention. They have plenty of talent, led by quarterback Mason Fine, who has already thrown for 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns. I like the Mean Green to cover on the road.
Pick: North Texas +4. North Texas 28, Southern Miss 27
Ole Miss Rebels at Missouri Tigers (-12.5)
The Bear: The introduction of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has added a dimension to the Rebels offense that Rich Rodriguez can utilize. Factor in the loss of linebacker Cale Garrett for the Tigers and Missouri's task is a bit tougher. Outside of the game against Alabama, Ole Miss' defense hasn't played too poorly, and I'd imagine they are probably kicking themselves for close losses to Memphis and Cal. I think the Rebels hang around here.
Pick: Ole Miss +12.5
USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11)
The Bear: The Trojans outgained Washington in Seattle two weeks ago but were done in by three Matt Fink interceptions and one 89-yard run by Salvon Ahmed (his other 16 carries netted 64 yards). Kedon Slovis is back for USC at quarterback, and he's got some weapons at wide receiver if injuries to Notre Dame's Shaun Crawford and Daelin Hayes affect the Irish defense against a much better offensive unit than they faced last week in Bowling Green. Will the return of Irish running back Jafar Armstrong boost a unit that managed just 322 total yards against Virginia and 321 at Georgia? If the Trojans can avoid the game-altering turnover they suffered at Washington -- and the ones Virginia did itself in with two weeks ago -- they can hang around here.
Pick: USC +11
Iowa State Cyclones (-10) at West Virginia Mountaineers
The Bear: According to our power rankings, Iowa State is a top-20 team. West Virginia is outside the top 70. The Cyclones haven't run it very well this year, but the Mountaineers haven't fared too well against the run, nor have they forced too many turnovers. Quarterback Brock Purdy could give them fits. Iowa State ate apart a much better West Virginia offense last year, and if the Mountaineers continue to throw interceptions, it will likely mean a second straight double-digit home loss.
Pick: Iowa State -10
Stay-away games
The Bear
Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (-2, 43.5)
I like the situation here for the Ducks. I know they have hated rival Washington up next in Seattle, but last week had to leave a bad taste in the Ducks' mouth, as they beat Cal 17-7 despite three first-half turnovers. The offense is now as healthy as its been and you have to feel they want to get out to a good start vs. the undermanned Buffaloes, build up a lead and maybe coast to the end, leaving the back door open for plenty of points. The last time the Buffs played in Eugene, it was quarterback Steven Montez's first career start -- and Colorado won as a monster underdog, so he will not be fazed by the atmosphere, but I think his defense might be. For the record, the road team is 5-14 in Pac-12 conference road games on Friday night. I like the over.
Pick: Over 58.5. Oregon 42 Colorado 21 (over 58.5)
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Eight-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $67.41.
Oregon -1600
Indiana -5000
Toledo -3500
Michigan -2500
Georgia -2500
LSU -500
Alabama -800
Clemson -3500
The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML and/or in a parlay or round-robin
Louisville +195
Temple +185
Northern Illinois +210
Michigan State +330
Ole Miss +400
USC +320
Arizona +180
The Bear: If you had to play one or two, who ya got?
Connecticut +34 at Tulane or Massachusetts +32 at Louisiana Tech
Stanford Steve's weeknight teaser
UL Monroe +6.5
Oregon -10.5
Virginia +12
Bear Bytes
What is Florida up against?
Dating back to 2010, the last 12 ranked teams to pull a home upset and face another ranked team as an underdog the following week are 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS. The only win came in 2014 with Ole Miss at A&M the week after the Rebels upset Alabama.
Aggies typically don't win these games
Texas A&M is 2-9 since 2000 at Kyle Field as a ranked team vs. a top-10 opponent. Among teams that have played at least four games meeting that criteria, only Tennessee (1-7) has a worse record in that span.
Dogging it
Texas has been an underdog each of the last six years vs. Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry Game and has covered all six games, winning three times outright. OU did cover in the Big 12 Championship Game last year.
Texas vs. Oklahoma in Red River Rivalry Game:
2018, Texas +7.5, Won by 3
2017, Texas +9.5, Lost by 5
2016, Texas +11, Lost by 5
2015, Texas +16.5, Won by 7
2014, Texas +15.5, Lost by 5
2013, Texas +13, Won by 16
Unchartered territory
The only time since 1978 that Florida State has been a 20-point dog was in Bobby Bowden's final regular-season game. The Seminoles were +25 at Florida in 2009. FSU lost that game 37-10 to the Gators.
Humbled Huskies?
Washington is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven Pac-12 road games as a favorite. That includes three outright losses as a a favorite of at least 12.5 points. The last time Washington went to Tucson, in 2016, the Huskies needed OT to win as a 14-point favorite against an Arizona team that finished 3-9.
Tidal wave
The only other time Tulane has been a 30-point favorite over an FBS team came in 1998 when the Green Wave were a 37-point favorite over UL Lafayette. Tulane is favored by 34 over Connecticut.
Devil of a time
In its last 10 games as a favorite, Duke is 0-10 ATS and lost nine of them straight-up. Going back further, in the Blue Devils' last game 17 games as a favorite, they are 2-15 ATS with 13 outright losses. That will be tested this week vs. Georgia Tech.
Golden era
Kent State is a 14.5-point favorite vs. Akron. It's the biggest favorite Kent State has been over an FBS team since 2013 when the Golden Flashes were an 18-point favorite over Miami (OH).
Give a hoot
Since 2015, Temple is 17-5 ATS with 11 outright wins as an underdog. Included in that is a 20-17 win over Maryland earlier this year as a 5.5-point underdog.
U got it?
Utah has lost four of its last six Pac-12 road games in which it was favored. Included in that is a 30-23 loss at USC in September.
Spartans usually bounce back after a loss
Excluding the 2016 3-9 outlier season for Michigan State, in the Spartans' last 11 games immediately following a double-digit loss they have 10 wins and one loss, by a field goal last year at Nebraska.
Aggies typically don't win these games
Texas A&M is 2-9 since 2000 at Kyle Field as a ranked team vs. a top-10 opponent. Among teams that have played at least four games meeting that criteria, only Tennessee (1-7) has a worse record in that span.
Dogging it
Texas has been an underdog each of the last six years vs. Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry Game and has covered all six games, winning three times outright. OU did cover in the Big 12 Championship Game last year.
Texas vs. Oklahoma in Red River Rivalry Game:
2018, Texas +7.5, Won by 3
2017, Texas +9.5, Lost by 5
2016, Texas +11, Lost by 5
2015, Texas +16.5, Won by 7
2014, Texas +15.5, Lost by 5
2013, Texas +13, Won by 16
Unchartered territory
The only time since 1978 that Florida State has been a 20-point dog was in Bobby Bowden's final regular-season game. The Seminoles were +25 at Florida in 2009. FSU lost that game 37-10 to the Gators.
Humbled Huskies?
Washington is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven Pac-12 road games as a favorite. That includes three outright losses as a a favorite of at least 12.5 points. The last time Washington went to Tucson, in 2016, the Huskies needed OT to win as a 14-point favorite against an Arizona team that finished 3-9.
Tidal wave
The only other time Tulane has been a 30-point favorite over an FBS team came in 1998 when the Green Wave were a 37-point favorite over UL Lafayette. Tulane is favored by 34 over Connecticut.
Devil of a time
In its last 10 games as a favorite, Duke is 0-10 ATS and lost nine of them straight-up. Going back further, in the Blue Devils' last game 17 games as a favorite, they are 2-15 ATS with 13 outright losses. That will be tested this week vs. Georgia Tech.
Golden era
Kent State is a 14.5-point favorite vs. Akron. It's the biggest favorite Kent State has been over an FBS team since 2013 when the Golden Flashes were an 18-point favorite over Miami (OH).
Give a hoot
Since 2015, Temple is 17-5 ATS with 11 outright wins as an underdog. Included in that is a 20-17 win over Maryland earlier this year as a 5.5-point underdog.
U got it?
Utah has lost four of its last six Pac-12 road games in which it was favored. Included in that is a 30-23 loss at USC in September.
Spartans usually bounce back after a loss
Excluding the 2016 3-9 outlier season for Michigan State, in the Spartans' last 11 games immediately following a double-digit loss they have 10 wins and one loss, by a field goal last year at Nebraska.
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Originally Posted by CanuckG
