College football teams that could surprise in 2019
Phil Steele
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What constitutes a surprise team? For me, it's when a team that isn't considered a consensus preseason top-10 team makes a playoff run. This season, my projected preseason AP top 10 is Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, LSU, Florida, Notre Dame, Michigan and Texas.
A year ago, my No. 1 surprise team was Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish came through for me, finishing 12-0 and making the College Football Playoff. My No. 2 surprise team was Texas. I had the Longhorns in my preseason top 10, but they were just No. 23 in the AP poll. Texas got to the Big 12 title game and finished the year ranked No. 9 in the polls.
What under the radar teams are in the running to make some serious noise in 2019? Here are my top picks.
1. Utah Utes (O/U 9.5 wins, 75-1 to win title)
Utah has a stout defensive line, and that can take you a long way. Last season, the Utes had the fifth-best run defense in the FBS (102 rush yards allowed per game) and collected 37 sacks. This season, the defense returns seven starters, with the D-line almost fully intact. The Utes had the toughest schedule in the Pac-12 last season, with five road games and matchups against the top four teams out of the North, but in 2019, they have five home conference games and avoid Oregon and Stanford. Quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss, who were lost with five games to go last season, return for a team that still was able to make the Pac-12 title game. The Pac-12 is much tougher overall this season, so the Utes can probably afford one loss and still make the playoff. But with just two road games against teams that made bowl games last season, the Utes are capable of winning all of their games, and two of my nine sets of power rankings have them going 12-0. I know the Pac-12 has not had a playoff team since 2016, and Utah had five losses last season, but that is why this is a surprise team.
2. Miami Hurricanes (8.5, 60-1)
The Hurricanes were on this list just two years ago as my No. 2 surprise team, and they surely delivered. They opened that season ranked 18th in the AP poll but got to 10-0 and No. 2 in the country before the injury bug hit and they dropped their last three games. Usually, there is a learning curve for a first-year head coach, but Manny Diaz has been here for four years and knows the players well. Despite a 7-6 record last season and a 35-3 bowl loss, Miami had a solid defense that held foes to 123 yards per game below their season average, which was fifth-best in the FBS. Most of that defense is back, led by a veteran linebacker corps. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos has talent to work with on an offense that underachieved last season (359 yards per game). The Hurricanes open with Florida but have only four true road games this season and none against any of my top-25 teams. Miami has a softer schedule this season (No. 69) and will likely not be ranked in the preseason.
3. TCU Horned Frogs (7.5, 200-1)
TCU opened both 2014 and 2017 unranked, but in 2014, I had the Horned Frogs as my No. 4 surprise team, despite their coming off a 4-8 season. They were 10-1 and No. 4 in the playoff rankings heading into the final weekend. They won their last game 55-3 but were jumped by Ohio State and missed the playoff, but they finished No. 3 in the AP poll. In 2017, I had TCU as my No. 7 surprise team, and again the Horned Frogs went from unranked to playing in the Big 12 title game, and they finished the season ranked No. 9. Injuries derailed this team last year (TCU lost its best defensive player, tackle Ross Blacklock, before the season), with most positions decimated by year's end. The Horned Frogs are more experienced than their 12 returning starters show, and Blacklock returns. Head coach Gary Patterson has produced six top-10 finishes in the past 11 years, and three of those came when the Horned Frogs were unranked in the preseason. It is time for his team to surprise again.
4. Iowa State Cyclones (8, 100-1)
A couple of years ago, I would never have expected to put Iowa State on this list. That was before Matt Campbell came to town. Many around the country will joke that the Big 12 does not play defense, but this Big 12 team does. Last season, the Cyclones held opponents to 78 yards per game below their season average, which was No. 21 in the country, and the bulk of that defense is back. On offense, now-veteran quarterback Brock Purdy, who thrived last season after being thrown into the fire, is back after passing for 2,250 yards, 16 TDs and seven interceptions. He also plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the Big 12. The Cyclones have to play Oklahoma on the road, but they have faced the Sooners with a third-string quarterback each of the past two seasons and won in Norman in 2017. Two of my sets of power rankings call for them to go 11-1, which would put them in the Big 12 title game and give them a shot at making the playoff.
5. Oregon Ducks (8.5, 40-1)
Head coach Mario Cristobal is doing a great job bringing in talent, and the Ducks not only have my top-rated offensive line this year but also have perhaps the top quarterback in next year's NFL draft operating behind it in Justin Herbert. The skill positions are loaded with speed, and the defense returns star linebacker Troy Dye (115 tackles, eight tackles for loss, seven pass breakups in 2018), two potential draft picks at cornerback and my top-rated true freshman defensive lineman, Kayvon Thibodeaux. Oregon is the most experienced team in the country, but my only concern is the schedule, as the Ducks have to face Auburn, Stanford, Washington, USC and Arizona State away from the friendly confines of Autzen Stadium. However, if they become road warriors (4-12 in Pac-12 road games the past three seasons), the Ducks have the talent to win the Pac-12.
6. Nebraska Cornhuskers (8.5, 35-1)
Nebraska opened last season 0-6 with a few close losses but was much better than that record indicates. Its offense averaged 23.3 points in the first six games in the switch to the spread offense and then improved to 36.6 points per game in the last six behind dynamic quarterback Adrian Martinez, who threw for 2,617 yards, ran for 629 yards and totaled 25 TDs. In Scott Frost's second year at UCF, the Knights went 13-0 after going 6-7 the prior season, and in Year 2 at Nebraska, Frost has a more veteran team that has now fully bought into his system. I made Nebraska my No. 1 most improved team this year, and the Huskers have only one road game against a team that finished with a winning record last year: a Minnesota team they beat 53-28 in 2018. It could be a perfect storm for the Huskers this season, and they are my pick to get to the Big Ten title game out of the West division.
7. Missouri Tigers (8, N/A)
Missouri, which is just No. 25 in my Power Poll, finds itself on this list based purely on its schedule. A quick glance reveals only five road games, four of which come against teams that did not reach a bowl game last year. The Tigers play Georgia on the road, but they stood tall with the Bulldogs at the line of scrimmage last season (Georgia had a 26-18 edge in first downs). The Tigers dominated Florida the past two years, including a 38-17 beatdown at The Swamp a season ago, and get the Gators at home. I was shocked that most of my power rankings were calling for double-digit wins, but I looked at Missouri's schedule and decided to add it to this list. The Tigers lost Drew Lock to the NFL, but they replaced him with Kelly Bryant, who was 16-2 as a starting quarterback at Clemson. Missouri, which has been hit by a bowl ban, also ranks in six categories of my top units.
8. Washington Huskies (9.5, 40-1)
Just three short years ago in 2016, I made Washington my No. 1 surprise team, despite the Huskies' coming off a 7-6 season. Washington delivered for me that season by making the playoff, which is what my top surprise team is supposed to do. This year's team was hit hard by losses via graduation and the NFL and returns just nine starters, including two on defense. Two years ago, the Huskies lost their entire secondary, including three second-round NFL draft picks. They still produced a fine unit and again have suitable replacements. Although they lose a veteran senior quarterback in Jake Browning, Jacob Eason might top Browning's 2018 stats. The schedule has the Huskies making this list, as they play on the road just one Power 5 team that had a winning record last season and get the toughest games at home, where they are 19-1 the past three seasons. Washington lost four games last season, but those defeats came by a total of 15 points. The Huskies are set up to challenge for the Pac-12 North division.
9. Virginia Tech Hokies (8, 500-1)
When I talked to defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year and spent an hour with him going over the defense, my comment to him after we were done was, "Coach, all coaches say they are young, but this defense is young!" We established that they might be decent if the starters stayed healthy, but five projected starters were gone either before the season or in the first few weeks. Last season's unit did not look like a typical Bud Foster defense, and I did not expect them to. This season, they are older, have depth and should have the most improvement of any defense in the country. I was impressed by quarterback Ryan Willis when he started due to injury. Virginia Tech plays five bowl teams on the road, highlighted by Notre Dame, Miami and Virginia, but there is no game in which it is at a significant talent deficit. The ACC Coastal is a wide-open division once again, and if the Hokies are healthy and pull off a couple of big road wins, they could be headed to the ACC title game.
10. Stanford Cardinal (7.5, 250-1)
The last time they were not in the preseason top 15, the Cardinal delivered for me. The year was 2015, and I had Stanford as my No. 1 surprise team. The Cardinal finished the season No. 3 in the AP poll but somehow did not make the playoff. I enjoy my conversations with coach David Shaw every year, as he is well versed on college football history and the draft. He also knows a thing or two about recruiting and coaching, and that is why Stanford is a contender every year. Stanford has just nine starters back and is No. 118 on my experience chart but still ranks among my top units in all eight position groups. While Stanford opens with road trips to USC and UCF, the Cardinal face on the road just one Power 5 team that had a winning record last season, and quarterback K.J. Costello might be the best quarterback in college football you've never heard of. Stanford gets both Washington and Oregon at home and could win the North division and make it to the Pac-12 title game.
11. Syracuse Orange (7.5, 100-1)
My magazine is in its 25th year, and not once in that span has Syracuse finished in the top 10 (the last time was 1992). Last season, Syracuse was the media's pick (and mine) to finish in the basement of the ACC Atlantic division. The Orange went on to finish 10-3 and ranked (No. 15) for the first time since 2001. Quarterback Tommy DeVito did well when called upon last season and now takes over as the starter. Syracuse thinks it can play with anyone and two years ago upset Clemson at home. Last year in Death Valley, the Orange led in the fourth quarter, with Clemson needing a fourth-and-long conversion to keep its game-winning drive alive. Syracuse does not play a ranked foe on the road; in fact, only two of its six road games are against teams that had winning records last season. Two of my nine sets of power rankings call for 11 wins, and Syracuse gets Clemson in the dome this season.
12. Michigan State Spartans (8, 150-1)
LSU was No. 129 on my experience chart last season and played a hellacious schedule of Miami, Auburn, Florida, and Texas A&M away from home while hosting Alabama and Georgia. Michigan State has to play Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin on the road, with three of those in a four-week stretch. The Spartans make this list because they are No. 8 on my experience chart and have perhaps the nation's best defense. Injuries riddled last season's offense, and this season, it should be much more potent. The Spartans have won their past two trips to Ann Arbor and beat Ohio State in Columbus in 2015.
Bonus roulette chip team
If you walk up to a roulette table and pick just one number, you have a 38-1 shot (37-1 in the big-money rooms with no 00) of having your number come up, so it's a long shot -- but still a possibility. Auburn was 3-9 in 2012 yet became the first team in recent history to go from a losing record to a national title the following season. Two years ago, I put my chip on Nebraska. Coming off a 5-7 campaign, the Huskers started 7-0 and rose as high as No. 7. Last year, I put it on Florida, and the Gators finished No. 7 in the AP poll after beating Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl. This year, I'll throw the chip on another team from the state that is coming off a losing record. Florida State (O/U 7, 150-1 to win title) will be much stronger in Willie Taggart's second season, as the Seminoles have eight starters back on offense and nine of their top 11 tacklers back on defense.