As we enter a crucial stage in the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week, and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 9 of the college football season:
Fallica: Appalachian State is ranked for the first time in school history and now has to play a road game against a good team -- and it'll have to do so without its best running back, Jalin Moore. The Mountaineers are also double-digit favorites, as the number has been driven up all week. But the Eagles have gotten efficient QB play all season, and they simply do not turn the ball over -- three turnovers in seven games while forcing 17 from their opponents.
The only team to beat Georgia Southern and its rushing attack this season is Clemson. There's a good chance that the Eagles, who have already eclipsed last season's win total and lost by 21 last year in Boone in the midst of a lost season, pull the outright upset on Thursday night.
8 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC) Steele: The visitor is 8-1 straight-up in this series and 7-1-1 ATS. Tom Herman is a solid 4-1 straight-up in Big 12 road games. Oklahoma State is one of the least experienced teams in the Big 12, while Texas is in the hunt for a College Football Playoff berth. In two conference home games this year, Oklahoma State was favored by a combined 23.5 points but lost both games by 15 points; the Cowboys were minus-142.5 yards per game against Iowa State and Texas Tech.
Texas has taken on the ninth-toughest schedule, while Oklahoma State has faced the 61st-toughest slate. The Longhorns' defense is holding foes to 46 yards per game below their season averages, while Oklahoma State is allowing opponents to gain 14 yards above their season averages.
ATS pick: Texas -3.5 Score: Texas 34, Oklahoma State 24 Fallica: Oklahoma State's last game was too bad to be believed, with only 311 total yards and two turnovers. It was a classic Bill Snyder keep-away-type game. The final score was a bit deceiving, as it was a 17-12 game in the fourth quarter before K-State scored its final TD with 2:35 left. Texas has played seven games, with five of them of the one-score variety. The Longhorns have been terrible favorites lately, going 1-6 ATS in their past seven and 5-10 ATS with six outright losses in their past 15.
Although Sam Ehlinger is expected to play, I have to wonder how much of a beating his shoulder can take -- and the QB run is such a huge part of the Texas offense. Oklahoma State could really use this win to get closer to bowl eligibility, as the schedule gets tougher from here. The Cowboys have pulled one small home upset this season, and I suspect another one is on tap.
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN2) Steele: Houston is 6-1 and has a potent offense that averages 143 yards per game more than what its opponents come into the games allowing. Last week against Navy, on the road, the Cougars had the ball for just 17:27 -- and they put up 570 yards and 49 points. South Florida comes in unbeaten at 7-0, but it has gotten to that mark with a soft schedule and some smoke and mirrors. USF trailed both Illinois and Tulsa (combined record of 4-10) by two scores in the fourth quarter.
USF was outgained by Georgia Tech by 176 yards but was helped by two kick returns for touchdowns. USF also had a 24-9 first-down deficit and was minus-116 yards versus East Carolina at home. Last week, the Bulls got past lowly Connecticut by eight points (38-30) at home. Houston is also the first FBS team the Bulls have faced with a winning record. Houston has faced a light schedule in its own right, but its six wins have been by 25.1 points per game. Houston quarterback D'Eriq King has a 23-3 TD-INT ratio, while his counterpart, Blake Barnett, has a 10-7 TD-INT ratio -- and Barnett has to line up against Houston's standout defensive tackle, Ed Oliver.
ATS pick: Houston -7.5 Score: Houston 48, South Florida 30 Coughlin: It seems like the Bulls have been due for a loss the past couple weeks, and this seems like the spot where the undefeated season comes to an end. It looks like the Cougars will be out All-American defensive lineman Ed Oliver, but maybe that helps Houston disguise some stuff, as the Bulls won't have much film without him. USF has gotten off to some slow starts this season, as it has trailed after the first quarter five times already. This feels like a spot where the Houston offense jumps out at the beginning and outscores the Bulls enough to win.
The Cougars make it four straight against the guys from Tampa. Home favorite covers.
10:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPNU) Fallica: The Nevada offense is a totally different unit with Ty Gangi at QB. He missed the 21-3 loss against Fresno State, but since returning, he has put up 304 pass yards in a near-upset of Boise State and helped the Wolf Pack to 7.2 yards per play and 40 points -- despite three turnovers -- in a blowout win at Hawaii. Given injuries to their starting QB and primary RB, it might be hard for the Aztecs to match yards and points without help from Nevada.
The Aztecs are 116th nationally in total offense, 114th in pass YPG and 124th in third-down conversions. San Diego State hasn't gained 300 yards in any of its past three games, nor has it scored more than 28 points in any game this season. The Aztecs are also 0-3 ATS in the role of favorites this year, though it's worth noting that they were double-digit favorites in all three of those games.
12 p.m. ET Saturday (SEC Network) Steele: Vanderbilt is 2-17 straight-up in SEC road games since 2013, and although they're coming off two solid efforts against Florida at home and Kentucky on the road, the Commodores are now traveling for the third time in four weeks. Arkansas is much stronger than its 2-6 record would indicate. The Razorbacks had a 290-225-yard edge in a 30-point road loss to Auburn. After losing to a powerful Texas A&M team by just seven points, the Hogs put up 405 yards on Alabama, with 236 of those yards coming in the first half.
After the Alabama loss, Arkansas led Ole Miss by two scores for most of its next game but ultimately lost a close one 37-33 in Little Rock. After six straight losses, Arkansas picked up an easy shutout win over Tulsa, which should have the Razorbacks energized and confident for this SEC matchup. Arkansas is minus-108 yards per game in SEC play, but Vanderbilt checks in at minus-186 yards per game in SEC play. Over the past four weeks, Arkansas is playing to an average game grade of 86.3, while Vanderbilt has an average game grade of 78.25. I think Arkansas is the stronger team, and it is at home. Although the Razorbacks are underdogs here, they have the situational edge in this game.
7 p.m. ET Saturday Coughlin: Normally I would be cautious of a team coming off such an emotional win and weekend, but this will already be the fourth road game the Cougs have played this season -- nothing new here. Plus, when I look at the numbers, this is a good matchup for them. They lead the country in passing yards with around 400 per game -- led by QB Gardner Minshew II, who's completing 69 percent of his passes with 23 TDs.
On the other side of the field, you have a defense that is second-to-last in the Pac-12 in passing yards. The Cardinal also have the second-lowest scoring offense in the conference. The past two meetings between these two teams are interesting because last year the Cougs were the only team to hold Bryce Loveunder 100 yards, and the year before that, they came to Palo Alto and rolled 42-16. Gimme the road 'dog.
12 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN) Fallica: Normally, this would be a classic letdown spot that I'd be happy to pounce all over, but I think Purdue is the better team here. Michigan State has had trouble offensively all season, and Jeff Brohm has done a great job putting the Boilermakers in positions to make plays. There's a real chance that Purdue could represent the Big Ten West in Indianapolis, if it can get out of East Lansing with a win. Although this number could move, note that Brohm is 8-2 ATS with five outright wins as a 'dog at Purdue.
7 p.m. ET Friday (ESPN) Steele: Boston College star running back AJ Dillon has missed the past two games, but he should be returning for this contest. Miami leads the nation in yards per play allowed at just 3.8, but on the offensive side, the Hurricanes are switching back to Malik Rosier at quarterback and could struggle at that position. Boston College's defense has given opposing offensive lines trouble all season, as it has recorded 25 sacks so far this season.
Boston College has played much better at home this season, at plus-210 yards per game, but is minus-115 yards per game on the road. Neither team in this matchup has been as impressive as I thought they would be this season, but Boston College just played its best game so far, with a 430-217 yard edge versus Louisville, even without Dillon in the lineup. Miami trailed Florida State at home 27-7 before staging a late comeback and lost at Virginia 16-13.
This matchup against Miami is the Red Bandanna Game for Boston College, and it seems to give top effort in this game every year, having upset both USC and Florida State in previous Red Bandana games. A fired-up home underdog gets the upset here.
12 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN) Coughlin: Ever since Brock Purdy came in against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, the Cyclones' offense has been great. Purdy has completed 75 percent of his passes for close to 12 yards per throw, with seven touchdowns and two picks. We know the Red Raiders are improved on defense, but the balance of this Iowa State offense is what I like. Plus, I think the Red Raiders will have trouble getting the big play in Ames. You know the crowd will be fired up, so we'll take the home team and give the points.
ATS pick: Iowa State -3.5 Score: Iowa State 30, Texas Tech 21 Fallica: The Iowa State offense with Brock Purdy at QB is a dangerous unit. Much has been made nationally about Notre Dame's improvement with Ian Book under center, but Purdy's ability to run has made the Cyclones' offense dynamic alongside a healthy David Montgomery. Tech pulled an upset in Fort Worth a couple weeks back and thumped Kansas last week in Lubbock, but I'm not sure how much value a win over TCU warrants this season. With Oklahoma coming to Lubbock next week, it would be easy for Tech to look past this one, as it has the past four years: The Red Raiders have gone 0-4 ATS and 1-3 SU in games before they play Oklahoma.
ATS pick: Iowa State -3.5 Score: Iowa State 34, Texas Tech 27
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday; TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida Steele: Georgia played in the College Football Playoff National Championship last season and opened this season strong, with six straight wins, including an early blowout of a ranked South Carolina team on the road. I thought Missouri had the line of scrimmage edge on the Bulldogs four games ago, but Georgia pulled through. It was a trip to Death Valley that derailed Georgia's undefeated season, as the Bulldogs were outrushed 275-113 by LSU.
Florida started the season slowly, including a home loss to Kentucky. The Gators' defensive front seven welcomed a couple missing players back along the way, though, and they have improved each week. Florida outrushed that same LSU team 215-180 two games ago. The crowd is split 50/50 for this game, and the talent is close as well, with both teams ranking in my top 20 on offense, defense and special teams. Florida has won three of the past four meetings, so I will take the underdog in a tight game here.
10:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN) Steele: Last week was a perfect example of situational handicapping, as Oregon was coming off a huge win at home in front of a pumped-up crowd against Washington and had to travel to face Washington State, a team that was coming off a bye and had GameDay in town. Oregon trailed 27-0 at the half but got within seven points late. This week, the environment will be less intimidating, and the Ducks are coming off a loss.
The last time they were playing after a loss, I used them at California as an ESPN selection, and they rolled to a 42-24 victory. That same Cal team lost to Arizona but had a 476-265 yard edge in that game. The Ducks have a substantial edge on defense, allowing 74 total yards per game less than Arizona and 3.2 yards per carry rushing versus 4.4 for Arizona. Oregon also has a massive advantage at quarterback, as Justin Herbert will likely be the first signal-caller taken in the 2019 NFL draft, and Arizona will start Rhett Rodriquez or a banged up Khalil Tate. The Ducks win big in this Pac-12 after dark matchup on ESPN.
ATS pick: Oregon -9.5 Score: Oregon 37, Arizona 20 Fallica: Our FPI numbers have Oregon as just five-point favorites, though that assumes a healthy Khalil Tate is in the lineup. I'll admit, that projection could be off. But I like this spot for the Wildcats. It's the second straight conference road game for the Ducks coming off that upset win over Washington, and the Arizona offense is coming off one of its best games of the season, yardage-wise (520 yards on 7.2 yards per play), but three turnovers and settling for two short field goals did the Wildcats in. Arizona was blown out at Utah, but it has been more than competitive in its other Pac-12 games. I expect that to continue here.
4 p.m. ET Saturday (SEC Network) Coughlin: This is an unranked and winless team in-conference, giving seven points against a ranked one-loss team. Mizzou gives up only 131 yards on the ground per game, which ranks 35th in the country.
2 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN3) Steele: Two weeks ago, Charlotte lost its starting quarterback, but Evan Shirreffs might be an upgrade at that position. Last week, Charlotte lost on the road to a strong Middle Tennessee team by eight points, though it had a 359-144 yard edge. Charlotte running back Benny LeMay has rushed for 664 yards and a solid 5.4 yards per carry this season. The 49ers have the advantage on defense here, as they're holding foes to 116 yards per game below what they came in averaging -- and that's 10th-best in the FBS. They have also held four of their six FBS foes to a season lows in yards.
Charlotte is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog and has pulled two outright upsets already this season.
ATS pick: Charlotte +7 Score: Charlotte 21, Southern Miss 20
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