I had this at about -12.
Are people still remembering the Notre Dame Vandy? Injuries?
what am i missing?
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10-09-18 07:55 PM #1
Could someone explain to me how Florida is only -7 @ Vandy
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10-09-18 08:02 PM #2
Pound this!
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10-09-18 08:05 PM #3
Under if anything. I’d think it gonna be ugly, wouldn’t expect gators best performance.
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10-09-18 08:07 PM #4
Will they come out flat after the big win? I don’t believe in that angle myself.
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10-09-18 08:27 PM #5
I have the number right at 7. Remember the storm that will be going through there plus Florida hasn't been a good team on the road in recent years. I think you're going to see some strong winds for this game.
See what KVB has. He always has the "Sharp forecast" which may shed a little light on this.
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10-09-18 08:29 PM #6
The sharp forecast should give us all the information we need.
Be patient, Blazer.Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: El Nino
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10-09-18 08:54 PM #7
This is Vandy's superbowl. They will give everything to cover +7.
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10-09-18 09:35 PM #8
Vanderbilt is 3-2 straight up under Derek Mason when an 4-9.5 point underdog at home.
http://www.sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb...+S+D+Q+L+%21++
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10-09-18 09:38 PM #9
Don’t sleep on Vandy with Florida’s huge win last week
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10-10-18 07:21 AM #10
I have several UF alumni-friends locally & i think I'm the only one out of us all who's surprised at their success so far.
They are very happy with the new coach.
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10-10-18 07:28 AM #11
I love when guys think the odds makers are wrong it’s very very funny
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10-10-18 02:57 PM #12
I have vandy winning this. Tebow too old now and Is a washed up an can’t keep up these big performances.
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10-10-18 03:12 PM #13
is 7 low to you? thats 2 tds at the swamp. and they just happened to beat vandy by 2 tds at the swamp last year. 7 is not low man. both teams are prob built more alike and play kind of the same, havent seen vandy this year but they prob try to play more of a physical type football since they arnt gonna be getting the best athletes, speed wise and all. you should expect some give in UF this saturday just because theyre coming off of that big rather close game on saturday, give doesnt mean lose or not play particularly well, but just not up to playing vandy on the road as they were lsu at home. besides they have uga after this one, even though a bye is sandwiched in, you might think they are fully concentrated on this game since they have a bye, but what Ive noticed is byes dont matter when it comes to being dialed in. the fact that they have uga after this one is enough to be thinking about that game more than this one. itll take a great coach to keep their heads on vandy 100% and not looking towards uga.
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10-10-18 03:20 PM #14
Really? Honestly I’m a terrible situational capper but still think it absolutely real. I’ve seen far too many letdowns (especially in the college games, hoops and fb) to totally ignore it. Problem for me is my mentality so much different than apparently most so actually pinpointing those spots a exercise in futility for myself. That said I know several guys that excellent situational cappers who when they tell me to expect a letdown for any given reason I tend to believe them! Don’t necessarily play them all but will be quick to jump off that team even if i liked them.
Originally Posted by Cuse0323
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10-10-18 03:22 PM #15
They “wrong” all the time. In the context that they making lines to entice bets not to pinpoint the outcome. Originally Posted by jjgold
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10-10-18 03:25 PM #16
Someone in path of storm told me that it was forecasted to be all blown thru before Saturday morning? Of course that could change drastically, weathermen in my area are about as accurate predicting weather as most the hamburgers around here are at picking games!! Lol Originally Posted by RangeFinder
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10-10-18 03:28 PM #17
Tebow is playing? Lol Originally Posted by alamo
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10-10-18 03:32 PM #18
The stacking percentages forecast shows Florida winning 31-24.
There is decent volume already here and my sources, combined, show heavy action on the Florida spread with both the betting tickets and the money.
It should be noted that the non-predictive public gauge shows a 30-20 Florida win. This will add to those public tickets and opens the door for the books to take a position.
When it comes to the moneyline there are more tickets on Vandy but the money is more extreme on Florida. When you consider the price for a 7 point spread, this doesn't tell us too much.
My information shows heavy action and money on the UNDER as well. This is, currently, being reported as very one sided. I would expect that to even out a little bit by game time.
This is decent volume early and with the book hanging an 8 point line at even money early tells us they've been interested in taking bets on the favorite from the get go.
If it were game time, a Contrarian bettor would be trying to figure out which one, spread or Total, that he's going to win.
I am not posting a fund that involves underdogs at home but in the same fashion and to help the contrarian, we can make an adjustment to the line line that gets the game just a bit closer.
The books are aware of this and have left this adjustment open for several weeks. This is why the line hasn't risen. Because if you adjust the 7 point stacking forecast based on an overrated Florida team you are very close to a bet.
Give even 1/2 more point, to 7.5 or back to 8, and you will see sharp money hit the underdog.
As it stands, I can confirm what I consider sharp trades on both Florida -7 and Vandy +7.5.
Given what I just posted, that +7.5 is not surprising.
I would consider a play on Vandy if the line rises, but the Funds I am posting are concentrating much more on road teams as the market has yet to stamp out the road dog inefficiencies that are out there.
Good Luck
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10-10-18 03:35 PM #19
Originally Posted by RangeFinder
Originally Posted by The Giant
Didn't even see these posts, lol, before posting.
No "sharp" forecast for NCAAF, just a stacking percentages forecast with adjustments. Agreed Range, I have it at 7.
Still have a public gauge though, it's non-predictive and more of a general sense of what the public likes.
It shows a 10 point game and could explain some of those Florida bets.
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10-10-18 03:37 PM #20
I'm seeing partly cloudy, mid 50's and no rain. Originally Posted by 2daBank
Wind is low too, less than 5 mph.
Of course, this is Wed and that's the weather we're talking about.
But I don't think it will be storms.
Points Awarded:
2daBank gave KVB 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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10-10-18 03:40 PM #21
under is the play in this game.
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10-10-18 06:36 PM #22
Its Vanderbilt's homecoming. Stay away from this game! The last time a post like this was made was a few years ago. South Carolina was at UCF for a noon game and were 7 point favorites and lost.
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10-10-18 06:46 PM #23
Line should be - 4 Florida .. Advantage Play for Vanderbilt here
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: KVB
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10-10-18 06:48 PM #24
I'm on Vandy... bet accordingly.
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10-10-18 06:57 PM #25
You guys are overthinking this. Vandy's wins are against Middle Tennessee St, Nevada and Tennessee St. Not exactly powerhouses. Sure they gave ND a game but they were easily bounced by South Carolina and Georgia. Homecoming only goes so far, I'm thinking Florida by 10.
The real head-scratcher IMO is Michigan-9 at home against Wisconsin. You mean to tell me the Vandy/Florida game is tighter than Mich/Wisc??? One of those lines is weak.
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10-10-18 07:04 PM #26
The weaker line is Wisconsin/Michigan .. The line should be a.pick em ...line down to 8.5....pound Wisconsin all day Originally Posted by klemopixx
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10-10-18 07:24 PM #27
My pure numbers have this at around Florida -9. I understand the line though because it builds in the letdown factor.
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10-10-18 07:42 PM #28
Down to, shit, I was on +7.5 two days ago. Originally Posted by Darkside Magick
Can't believe the shit went up, that rise has been reverse movement in a number of books. Originally Posted by KVB
See if it gets back down there.
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10-10-18 07:50 PM #29
Pick’em? At Michigan? It might be high being over a td but pick’em? I don’t think so. Originally Posted by Darkside Magick
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10-10-18 07:51 PM #30
K it is now available at +9 at a few offshore Originally Posted by KVB
Down to, shit, I was on +7.5 two days ago.
Can't believe the shit went up, that rise has been reverse movement in a number of books.
See if it gets back down there.
I might bite
Chomp chomp
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10-10-18 07:52 PM #31
Sharps bet Michigan early at -6.5 and at -7. Originally Posted by KVB
Down to, shit, I was on +7.5 two days ago.
Can't believe the shit went up, that rise has been reverse movement in a number of books.
See if it gets back down there.
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10-10-18 08:07 PM #32
The stacking forecast has 3 point game and I can make one more adjustment knocking it a little lower. Originally Posted by 2daBank
I thought that when it hit +7.5 that I was fortunate.
I smell some manipulation here, it's not the most significant of moves. Will be interesting to see if that line stays. I'm due to lose to the closer, that's for sure, especially with the Big Ten, I thought we shook some of that dust off after the the week 5 sharp money came in.
Could see money knock it right back down to 7.5.
Could.
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10-10-18 08:16 PM #33
Sorry KVB, that sounds insane to me. Michigan -3 at home would mean these teams are even, and they are not. Originally Posted by KVB
The stacking forecast has 3 point game and I can make one more adjustment knocking it a little lower.
I thought that when it hit +7.5 that I was fortunate.
I smell some manipulation here, it's not the most significant of moves. Will be interesting to see if that line stays. I'm due to lose to the closer, that's for sure, especially with the Big Ten, I thought we shook some of that dust off after the the week 5 sharp money came in.
Could see money knock it right back down to 7.5.
Could.
For the record, I come up with Michigan -6.5, so I do agree that Wiscy has value at current market. I am just always reluctant to fade the sharps.
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10-10-18 08:21 PM #34
I like Wisconsin.
Not sure how Vandy scores. If they cover, its going to be like a 23-17 game. They aren’t good. The Notre Dame game was a fluke before ND found a Qb, Tennessee Tech nearly beat them, and Georgia could have put up 60 on them if they tried.
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10-10-18 08:23 PM #35
Agree, with all due respect to kvb and darkside i think it nuts to say these teams even. Not that they can’t or won’t beat mich but no way I could see line being that low. Originally Posted by LT Profits
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