[BigdaddyQH]

A list of my best over/under numbers this season so far:

Wisconsin O 9 1/2 (-125). A home game vs Michigan and no Ohio State or Penn State. This number should be at least 10 1/2.

Oklahoma State O 9 (-110). A very easy non-con schedule. With games at Texas, at West Virginia and hosting Oklahoma in three weeks, just one win gives them 10 for the season.

LSU U 9 (+100). Trips to Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee leave no room for error for LSU. Home games against Auburn (after Florida) and Arkansas (sandwiched in between trips to Alabama and Tennessee) make 9 wins very difficult.

Miami (FL) O 8 1/2 (+100). Miami has a very soft non-con schedule. A trip to Florida State is the only real tough away game. Getting Ga. Tech and Va. Tech at home really helps.

Northwestern O 7 (-120). The 'Cats have a very easy non-con schedule and one of the best HC's in the Big 10. They duck both Ohio State and Michigan. 8 wins is certainly doable.

Ga. Tech O 6 1/2 (-120). Tech has a few tough games, opening with Tennessee, going to Miami and Clemson, and closing at home against Georgia. But that adds up to 4 losses, not 6.

[ChiTownTeaBagger]

Love the OkSt pick

[ChiTownTeaBagger]

What about USF at 10 (-110)?

Obviously with Flowers returning they're set at the QB position. They return 60% of their offensive line, a couple passes catchers, and a running back (D. Johnson) that saw plenty of playing time (and scored double digit TDs) last year.

They return nearly their entire defense, which presumably will improve from last year. Given the offense's capability, the defense will likely only need to be "good enough."

As far as schedule goes, I don't see two losses. They get 3 of their 4 non-con games at home, the toughest of which will be a terrible Illinois team (in Tampa). In American play, they get Temple (the only AAC team to beat them last year) in Tampa, which will presumably be down with the losses to staff/personnel they experienced, Houston and Tulsa at home (who I believe to be the only contenders in the West other than Memphis and Navy), and don't play Memphis or Navy. UCF is a road game in the regular season finale and should have a good offense, but unless they shore up their defense it could turn into a shootout that comes down to a couple stops. Stops that USF will be more equipped to make.

It's not unrealistic to think this team could go 12-0 during the regular season. However, a lot is hinging on Flowers staying healthy and, given his propensity to run (over 1,500 rushing yards last year), that makes him more susceptible to injury. I think 11-1 is the most likely of scenarios, even dropping two games would result in a push.

Would love to hear opposing sides to this. Thanks.

[BigdaddyQH]

I basically agree with this. If Charlie Strong can get his ego under control and leave his "my way or the highway" attitude at the door, USF has a chance to run the table. If Charlie is still "Charlie", USF will fall short, just like all of his Texas teams did. USF will be favored in all of their games. Strong's Texas teams went just 8-7 S/U as favorites while he was there. USF has a rather soft schedule, but remember we are talking about a Group of 5 team here. Last season Houston started 5-0, with a win against Oklahoma. and still lost 4 games.

[gojetsgomoxies]

bigdaddy, good stuff.. thank you

i was perusing phil steele's o/u blog entry and these teams caught my eye....... i will say 1) haven't looked deeply at teams, returning starters or schedule; 2) some of these are probably -120 or +120 without excess juice so they aren't exactly 50/50 propositions.

over:

ASU 5
Duke 4.5
Hawaii 4
Ohio 7.5
Utah 5.5
Syracuse 4
Oregon 7.5

under:

army 8
BYU 10
Oregon State 5.5

one thing i should really look at is non-conference games as that has massive effect and is easily analyzed. same with who these teams DON'T PLAY in their conferences.

[gojetsgomoxies]

BYU Cougars football

Scores & Schedule

Sat, Aug 26	vs	Portland State		[COLOR=#878787 !important]12:00 PM[/COLOR]
Sat, Sep 2	vs	LSU		[COLOR=#878787 !important]6:30 PM[/COLOR]
Sat, Sep 9	vs	Utah		[COLOR=#878787 !important]7:15 PM[/COLOR]
Sat, Sep 16	vs	Wisconsin		[COLOR=#878787 !important]12:30 PM[/COLOR]
Fri, Sep 29	@	Utah State		[COLOR=#878787 !important]5:00 PM[/COLOR]
Fri, Oct 6	vs	Boise State		[COLOR=#878787 !important]7:15 PM[/COLOR]
Sat, Oct 14	@	MS State		[COLOR=#878787 !important]TBD[/COLOR]
Sat, Oct 21	@	East Carolina		[COLOR=#878787 !important]TBD[/COLOR]
Sat, Oct 28	vs	San Jose State		[COLOR=#878787 !important]TBD[/COLOR]
Sat, Nov 4	@	Fresno State		[COLOR=#878787 !important]TBD[/COLOR]
Fri, Nov 10	@	UNLV		[COLOR=#878787 !important]7:30 PM[/COLOR]
Sat, Nov 18	vs	UMass		[COLOR=#878787 !important]TBD[/COLOR]

[gojetsgomoxies]

phil or i must have made a mistake on BYU... i see 5 easy games - although i don't think byu is layup to win all those - 2 medium games and then they hit a wall of good to great teams.

of all the O/U's i posted the BYU one stuck out by far.

[Buffalo Nickle]

phil or i must have made a mistake on BYU... i see 5 easy games - although i don't think byu is layup to win all those - 2 medium games and then they hit a wall of good to great teams.

of all the O/U's i posted the BYU one stuck out by far.

I would expect the O/U on BYU to be 8. They have five games that they will have a heck of a time winning.

[Ralphie Halves]

You guys have motivated me to get off my ass and go get a totals sheet from the South Point. I'm sure it's online somewhere, but I like having the old-school sheet in front of me.

[Ralphie Halves]

Okay, some early ones that I immediately think are off, including a couple that made my eyes bulge out of my head.

Idaho OVR 4.5 -- 4.5? You're insane. I made a lot of money betting on Idaho last year, and as I said before, I bet on coaches heavily, which is something most people, including Vegas does not seem to do. Paul Petrino is the real F'n deal. He took a left-for-dead program with left-for-dead players, and slowly built them into a 9-win team last year (8 regular season wins). And even though he's a Petrino, it was often his defense that was most impressive, a defense that was never short of embarrassing before he got there. And you're gonna put a 4.5 total up? Did they lose their QB or something? No. RBs? Nope, both returning and both good. They did lose most of their O-line. Problem? Maybe. But these replacements are Paul Petrino guys who have played under a system and scheme that game after game out-does the competition. And it's not like those Rob Akey-recruited O-lineman last year were talented, they probably weren't at all, they were just playing in a superior system. I feel pretty good that losing such a pool of stud talent like the Idaho O-line is not going to be even somewhat responsible for a 3.5 game drop out of nowhere. They won 7 out of their last 8, they got stronger as the season went on, which is always a good sign. And their non-conference schedule is weak -- Sacramento St, Western Mich, Missouri (winnable), and Coastal Carolina. They'll easily clip 2, maybe 3 of those, then they just have to deal with the Sun Belt, which they all but mowed through last year. Paul Petrino will have a coaching advantage over everyone in that division. For NCAAF, when in doubt, don't bet on the robots, bet on the guy controlling the robots.

USC OVR 10 -- If Darnold and Jones stay upright, and there's no reason why they wouldn't, this is a team where you could almost just bet on the robots, but HC Clay Helton figured it out and made the QB switch he needed to make, this team was unstoppable all across the board -- literally, they won every game (except Darnold's very first one where they lost by 4 to Utah). Sam Darnold is the most gangster college QB I've ever seen. Anyway, just tell me with a straight face where those 3 losses are coming from? No Washington this year, they get Stanford at home, and mediocrity after that. In the past, Stanford has been able to confuse USC's overrated QBs, but I can't see it happening this year, and I'd book USC as a TD favorite in that game alone, which will be their toughest test of the year. Super +EV since a push IMO is the absolute worst you can do here.

Nebraska UND 7.5 -- Nebraska brings in Bob Diaco from UConn, who I like, as the DC.....but he's implementing the 3-4. This change, unless you're dealing with a 1-11 team, almost never goes well in year 1. You're pretty much on purpose doing this for the longer haul. Nebraska's offense isn't scary enough to carry this through either. Their first 4 games are soft, but if they can't run the table there, I think they're gonna have a real tough time in conference play. The Big 10 collectively got even stronger this year IMO.

Purdue OVR 2.5 -- Even with a disasterous program, and a coach nobody responded to, this team still put together a couple of 3-win seasons. A lot of reason for optimism now with Jeff Brohm taking over, which was a hire a lot of people were really excited about, and they should be. Everyone thought WKU was going to fall back once Bobby Petrino left. Nope, they actually got better under Brohm. I don't normally like to back first-year coaches UNLESS they're taking over a shit program and have good skill players coming back, which Purdue does. RB Markell Jones is very underrated, his backup DJ Knox is underrated too IMO, both very smart runners, and QB David Blough got it done even though schematically Purdue was overmatched almost every game. They won't be this year.

Hawaii OVR 4 -- So again, explain to me how a 6 win team and bowl winner drops to a 4 win team, when they're getting better and not even losing that much. The real catalyst in this whole thing was HC Nick Rolovich, who resurrected a dying program with a lot of built-in disadvantages in one year, and now has a stud QB and a lot of experience coming back. This is a team on the rise, not on the decline. I expected a 7 here and got a 4. Yes please.


I'll add on, but these are the big ones for me so far.

[gojetsgomoxies]

idaho has an amazing qb....... they are going FCS - next year? - so would that affect things? i'm thinking "no" and that it might in fact motivate them.... idaho with the outstanding QB seems like a "lite" version of wyoming which everyone will be all over....

i like the picks. the only one i don't completely feel is nebraska - not saying it's wrong just that i don't know enough.

what is the difference between 3-4 and 4-3 in terms of talent? i'm assuming DL are bigger in 3-4 and the reverse is true in 4-3... quickness vs. size is reversed in terms of DL vs. LB?.. not really sure though. to the uneducated eye i would believe there shouldn't be much difference but i know there is.

[gojetsgomoxies]

when you guys do these picks - me included - do you actually check how many games the team actually plays? or do they all play the same number? i don't think so but not sure.

13 vs 12 games is obviously important but especially given that the extra game is fairly often an NC game against a weak opponent... so not only one more game but likelihood of 0.8 more win which is huge.

[Ralphie Halves]

when you guys do these picks - me included - do you actually check how many games the team actually plays? or do they all play the same number? i don't think so but not sure.

13 vs 12 games is obviously important but especially given that the extra game is fairly often an NC game against a weak opponent... so not only one more game but likelihood of 0.8 more win which is huge.

Yeah, I considered that with Hawaii. IIRC, they had 13 last year, but back to 12 this year. Either way, with a team like that, that extra game really just counts as .5, since they had a decent shot at winning or losing it. It's not like it was Bama having an extra game or anything like that. So it didn't really factor in for me.

Idaho is FCS next year, and regardless of how good they are, it does make sense. Moscow very hard to get to, nobody in the freaking Sun Belt wants to travel all the way up there, and a dome that only seats 16K, when a lot of these new FBS schools coming in are already seating over twice that.

This would be their last chance ever to make a bowl game, so I think the motivation would be pretty high. Petrino also likely coaching for a big contract somewhere else.

[Ralphie Halves]

A few more. Second-tier

NCST OVR 6.5 -- Better team than last year's 6-win team, and I'm a big fan of HC Dave Doeren, who is a play-on from a betting angle. NCST almost won 8 games last year, and those two heartbreaking losses were against FSU and Clemson. They do lay eggs, as the Wolf Pack have always been known to do, but Doeren should make things more consistent the longer he's there. They lose a 1000-yd rusher, but almost their entire OL comes back. Their entire front 6 (they run the 4-2-5) are all returning seniors!! Those guys flat out mercked people last year, it's scary to see what they'll do this year. This team is primed for a good season.

Virginia UND 5.5 -- This might be stronger than a second-tier pick, UVA winning 6 games would be completely ridiculous. Coach Mendenhall is great, but this team is over-matched at every turn, still. They'll pass their total of 2 wins from last year, but to triple that? You and what army, Virginia? Bananas.

Toledo OVR 8.5 -- Boy do I ever hate betting on the fukking MAC, but it's all there for this team. Lost an NFL RB, but his backup ran for over 1000 yds, and the QB quietly threw 45 TDs last year. Super weak non-conference schedule, Western Mich on a rebuild, and nobody else emerging in that entire shit conference. No reason it shouldn't happen.

Georgia OVR 9 -- I'll bite. They won 7 last year with Nick Chubb being out, Eason just not quite being ready, and the offense pretty much pissing and shitting itself all year. Three of their losses were very very close. Entire defense is back, and the only reason they weren't amazing all the time last season is because they were always on the field. Chubb is back, and Eason's upside is crazy. What they're putting on the field right now is light years better than what we saw all last season, and they still could have pulled out 9 wins if they caught a few breaks at the end of games. Every year, I laugh at the people saying "It's finally time for UGA", and for the first year ever, I'm now one of those people. With Florida down a bit, a full team, no LSU or Bama to play, and no Mark Richt in the way, UGA can sail over 9 this year.

Notre Dame UND 7.5 -- Not with that schedule, shit, good luck with that. And they just got done going 4-8 with Deshone Kizer. New schemes, new QB, Brian Kelly is still your coach, it's just too much to overcome. All of the upside anyone is talking about is a bunch of blind hope and speculation. And Brain Kelly is a turd. Just thought I'd mention that.


Whew, I need to slow down. But this is the only sport I bet anymore, save a few baseball win total bets, so it's my only sports-related contribution to the board. Thanks for making the thread Biggie. Let's have some fun with it.

[BigdaddyQH]

A lot to comment on. First, the obvious. Hawaii OVER 4 is kind of a no brainer. Not with 8 starters on offense returning and that schedule. Western Carolina, San Jose State, and Fresno at home are three easy winners (or should be). Between away games at UMass, Nevada, UNLV, and Utah State, they should be able to find two more wins. And we are not even talking potential upsets here.

I would be careful of any ACC Team. Ralphie mentioned UVA Under 5 1/2. UVA opens at home against William & Mary, Indiana, and UConn. 3-0 is certainly doable. They also get Duke, Boston College, Ga. Tech and VA. Tech at home. UVA returns 8 on defense and their starting QB. Too "iffy" for me.

NC State returns 16 players to a 7-6 squad that finished last season at 3-1. Two games will determine their success or failure this season. The opener against South Carolina, and the game at Notre Dame. A win against South Carolina and NC State should be 4-1 going into their toughest stretch of games in October.

No one would love to see Georgia win 10 games as much as I would, but that schedule is brutal. They return their entire defense, but no WR's and few offensive linemen. Away games at Notre Dame, Tennessee, Auburn, and Ga. Tech, not to mention the Cocktail Party against Florida make 10 wins tough.

[Ralphie Halves]

First off Biggie, you're spot on with Wisconsin and OKST, should be easy covers. The rest I just didn't feel strongly about one way or another. LSU will be a real interesting story this year.

I would wager that UVA's first three games are more likely to result in 1-2 than a 3-0. Even if I'm wrong and it is a 3-0, I think they still top out at 5 wins. This team still needs a lot of work and is still super young. They still are the weak sisters of the ACC. I also predict that the ACC becomes a little easier than it used to be betting-wise, as the top teams separate more from the bottom ones. VTech and GTech are always the great unknowns, but I never mess with those teams. I lose no matter which side I take when those two are involved. Same with Cal. Fukk that school.

I just don't see Notre Dame and GTech being too tough for Georgia. Really not sold on the Irish being good this year. Auburn and Tennessee definitely, but if they manage to win one of those, I think the over is all but a given.