They seem harder than regular season games because you have no idea if a team will show up mentally. Historically how well have people been with bowl games?
I wager on very few of them for the exact reason you just stated. Remember last year, there were three 5-7 teams that made it in and all three won. What does that tell you? I am anxious to see the match ups.
The only way I have found success is to bet in game live. Watch a little of the game and you can tell which team shows up to play. This works great if you are leaning to play underdogs.
but my experience years ago is that they were much much easier than regular games.........
i think there were good threads on this in general and on a bowl game system (something to do with rushing yards)..
should try to find them.
some of the things i used to look at................
PLAY ON: teams from more athletic region (i.e. ACC, SEC, Sun Belt)
FADE: big conference teams who are very disappointed and flat...... teams that overachieved like mad on momentum and adrenalene i.e. iowa last year or Cinncy or hawaii a number of seasons ago. layoff kills momentum and other teams have tons of time to prepare
they mention the rushing game as being extremely important ex-post........... of course, the winning team tends to eat clock with the run............ but this mentions 1) yards per carry predicting 75% winners - again ex-post; 2) passing game not predicting anything.
so someone should be able - and i think people have in prior seasons - cobble together an ex-ante system that picks ATS winners, but of course not at 75% clip.
regarding the upstart teams being "figured out"..... i tend to see bowl games as a "brand new season" and would probably handicap more in line with how teams were supposed to do in the past season.
i realize some rules are somewhat contradictory.................... but except for big teams that had very disappointing season i would tend to go with the more athletic teams as they get a "reset" for the bowl games.
That article would appear to have been written some time ago (December 1999 I believe). It would be interesting to see if the rushing game approach still holds with how pass-happy offenses have evolved over the past decade.
Nonetheless, this discussion is a great starting point. Looking forward to see the matchups and lines.
people were still on the rushing system the last few years. and i think it was still working........... surprised i can't google the threads but they exist.
nice catch, i didn't realize the article was so old but i do think much of the underlying theory would still hold......... i guess the question would be whether the market has fully adjusted.
in past 11 or 13 seasons or something....... SEC has had 1 losing bowl season 40% and Big 12 has had 1 winning ATS bowl season..... those records are as per the conferences at the time. so TAM/Missouri/Colorado would mostly reflect Big 12 and they aren't there any longer. so beware.
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How are you with bowl games?
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