1. #1
    LT Profits
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    CFB Week 4 Plays

    SATURDAY, 9/24

    Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 11-19, -9.02

  2. #2
    SteezW
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    Mind if I ask why you like Wisconsin here?

    As a Badger fan, I'm really nervous about this game. Corey Clement nursing an ankle injury and we have a bit of a QB controversy. Somehow, the defense gave up more points and yards to Georgia State at home last week than to LSU in the opener.

  3. #3
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteezW View Post
    Mind if I ask why you like Wisconsin here?

    As a Badger fan, I'm really nervous about this game. Corey Clement nursing an ankle injury and we have a bit of a QB controversy. Somehow, the defense gave up more points and yards to Georgia State at home last week than to LSU in the opener.
    I wish I could give you a long detailed answer, but the truth is it is because my model spit out only MSU -3.25.

    I would not worry too much about the Georgia State game, Badgers probably just took them lightly with one eye on this B1G opener.

  4. #4
    SteezW
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    Ah ok cool. It looks like redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook is starting for the Badgers now. I like the move, should be a great game. A little upset about the 11am Central start...

    Meanwhile they have Penn State/Michigan at 2:30 on national TV where Michigan will roll

  5. #5
    chico2663
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    I liked miss st and north carolina. what did your module say?If you don't mind.

  6. #6
    reigle9
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteezW View Post
    Ah ok cool. It looks like redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook is starting for the Badgers now. I like the move, should be a great game. A little upset about the 11am Central start...

    Meanwhile they have Penn State/Michigan at 2:30 on national TV where Michigan will roll
    You really don't think PSU-UM would crush that game in ratings? I mean, this isn't rocket science.

  7. #7
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by chico2663 View Post
    I liked miss st and north carolina. what did your module say?If you don't mind.
    Mississippi State -22.73
    North Carolina -5.53

    I actually lean Pitt

  8. #8
    chico2663
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Mississippi State -22.73
    North Carolina -5.53

    I actually lean Pitt
    Pitt has always been underachievers from wandstadt on down.I'mprobably wrong but i look for them to slap pitts silly. thanks

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    1 CFB Addition Saturday

    SATURDAY, 9/24

    Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
    South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)

  10. #10
    Cuse0323
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    Any lean on USC at Utah?

  11. #11
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cuse0323 View Post
    Any lean on USC at Utah?
    WOULD have liked USC but new QB makes me want +3.5 to take USC, which I won't get. Model has Utah -1.98

  12. #12
    Cuse0323
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    WOULD have liked USC but new QB makes me want +3.5 to take USC, which I won't get. Model has Utah -1.98
    Thanks. The new young QB on the road is scary. This is the ultimate layoff game, but degenerate special.

  13. #13
    Electrons
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I wish I could give you a long detailed answer, but the truth is it is because my model spit out only MSU -3.25.

    I would not worry too much about the Georgia State game, Badgers probably just took them lightly with one eye on this B1G opener.
    LT--a question.

    I use a model as well. Did you account for the QB change with Wisconsin? I mean, your system has the outcome MSU -3.25---and I'd expect your MOE to be 3-5 points.....seems like a lot of risk for such a small difference in your number and Vegas number.

  14. #14
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Electrons View Post
    LT--a question.

    I use a model as well. Did you account for the QB change with Wisconsin? I mean, your system has the outcome MSU -3.25---and I'd expect your MOE to be 3-5 points.....seems like a lot of risk for such a small difference in your number and Vegas number.
    Depends on the spread. I have no problem taking 2.5 point differential (higher) when model is in low 3s. If model had, say, 7, then 2.5 not as significant. Also, I use more judgement than pure modelers, while I never go against the model, the difference I am will to accept may vary from game to game depending on other factors.

  15. #15
    champ21
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    Thanks for input L T

  16. #16
    LT Profits
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    3 CFB Additions

    SATURDAY, 9/24

    Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
    South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
    Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
    Last edited by LT Profits; 09-24-16 at 11:36 AM. Reason: Tulsa Over was at Heritage

  17. #17
    LT Profits
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    Another CFB Addition

    SATURDAY, 9/24

    Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
    South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
    Ball State / Florida Atlantic UNDER 55 -105 (Heritage)
    Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

  18. #18
    LT Profits
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    Yet Another CFB Addition

    SATURDAY, 9/24

    Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
    South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
    Colorado +10 +100 (Heritage)
    Ball State / Florida Atlantic UNDER 55 -105 (Heritage)
    Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

  19. #19
    Joeitaly
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    How did you not have FLA ML on your picks this week?

  20. #20
    clockwise
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    SATURDAY, 9/24

    Wisconsin +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Wisconsin / Michigan State UNDER 42 -110 (DSI)
    South Florida +5.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Pittsburgh +7 -105 (Heritage)
    Tulsa / Fresno State OVER 66 -105 (Heritage)
    Colorado +10 +100 (Heritage)
    Ball State / Florida Atlantic UNDER 55 -105 (Heritage)
    Stanford -2.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

    ducks line now at -14 hmmmm

  21. #21
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by clockwise View Post
    ducks line now at -14 hmmmm
    Colorado RB was announced Out 15 minutes before kick-off after it was announced he was upgraded to probable earlier in th day.

  22. #22
    LT Profits
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    Comeback in progress? 6-2

  23. #23
    seaborneq
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Comeback in progress? 6-2
    I thought you had a winning record going into the week. I must have been looking at your NFL thread.

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