[butler053]

Hey everyone I am new to picking NCAAF games and I have questions! Why do some of my initial leans seem off compared to what I am reading here in your comments? For example: I like Wisc +4.5, UCLA +4.5, Indiana -2.5 and Kansas to cover vs a C-USA team (RICE). Am I out to lunch, can I get some input ( for and against)? THANKS!

[esulima]

like them all but wisc ,love ari in that spot

[BigdaddyQH]

I would not touch any of those games. it is still too early in the season. A lot of Big 10 vs Pac 12 action this weekend, and those two games will decide which conference gets the best of the other. Indiana looked terrible against the Navy, and Bowling Green is playing very good ball. The conferences do not matter. The teams do.

[SamDiamond]

All of those games are very difficult to cap.

But----this is a rule in gambling.

It's your money. What you want to bet on and how you want to bet is up to you.

If you have an angle that other people don't see----and feel confident enough to bet on it---it's your money.

Good luck.

[butler053]

Thanks for the input so far! I guess I am guilty of playing from the heart a bit on those picks. I am a MICHIGAN guy and therefore a BIG10 fan and I may have a bias towards the conference. Does anyone have an opinion about picking middle - low bcs teams VS a middle - top non AQ? Am I falling for a noobie trap if I lean towards the low bcs teams?

[SamDiamond]

Thanks for the input so far! I guess I am guilty of playing from the heart a bit on those picks. I am a MICHIGAN guy and therefore a BIG10 fan and I may have a bias towards the conference. Does anyone have an opinion about picking middle - low bcs teams VS a middle - top non AQ? Am I falling for a noobie trap if I lean towards the low bcs teams?

Don't bet on your home team, or your home conference.

It never ends well.

You just can not look at them objectively, why risk money on it?

[butler053]

That is a sound piece of advice and I will try to follow it! My next question is about timing of bets. Should I take an early line I like or wait till later in the week to see how its moving and take advantage of an inflated / deflated line? I suppose the answer may be a bit of both (situation depending)....

[Hotlanta Steam]

Hey everyone I am new to picking NCAAF games and I have questions! Why do some of my initial leans seem off compared to what I am reading here in your comments? For example: I like Wisc +4.5, UCLA +4.5, Indiana -2.5 and Kansas to cover vs a C-USA team (RICE). Am I out to lunch, can I get some input ( for and against)? THANKS!

Just to throw a few devils advocates out there for you...

Wisconsin is traveling west to play ASU in the heat... Wisconsin lost out west last season to a very average Oregon State team.. ASU has plenty of offense and plays a very fast tempo. Wisconsin has played two patsies thus far and run the ball well but they have not seen a defensive line and linebacking core like they will Saturday. Wisconsin will run well enough but they may be forced to try and outscore ASU and that can be tough when you are known for just running the ball well.

UCLA is traveling to the central time zone for an 11am CT kickoff (9am Pacific). That means that they will be eating breakfast at about 6am their time. UCLA has a very very green secondary and though most people gloss over it, Nebraska has a very talented group of WRs that can make big big plays. Martinez for all his running ability is much improved as a passer and if a guy is open, he will hit him. Most people are predicting a shoot out but with the no huddle spread that UCLA likes to run you can't forget about the Nebraska crowd. 90K+ screaming in your ear when you try to audible out of the play call usually spells trouble. Nebraska was very bad on defense the first week but improved a great deal from week 1 to week 2. They have changed starting linebackers to 2 true frosh starting who possess much greater speed to counteract a mobile QB like Hundley for UCLA.

Indiana absolutely could not stop the run last week against Navy.. while Navy runs a special offensive ground attack you can't ignore the fact that even on normal FB dive plays, Navy was picking up 6-8 yards a pop. While BGSU is not a major running team (about 200 yards a game), they do it well enough to keep teams from playing in all nickel coverage an focusing on their very good passing game. BGSU also has already played a spread offense in Tulsa (very similar to Indiana's) and they shut it down cold. Indiana will need to score 30+ to win this game and I not sure they can on the Falcons.

[goodlucky30]

WISCONSIN +5.5 is Gold to my eyes. This team is going to be tied for second in the Big Ten this year along with Michigan. It will be a close game but I see Wisconsin easily covering with their strong experienced defense...

[butler053]

How do you feel about KANSAS+7 vs RICE?

[Urbanwildlife]

Kansas has little or no chance. Rice is the play of the week. They are a very good team.

[butler053]

Can you explain?

[Urbanwildlife]

13 Rice players earned at least honorable mention All-Conference USA in 2012, ten are back, three on offense, six on defense and one on special teams. They have scored at least 33 points in six of the final seven games last year, and scored 31 on Texas A&M in there one and only game this year. They have a very good QB Taylor McHargue who can run and pass, and they have a very strong set of running backs. Also all five starting linemen return on the offensive line. On defense which has been a weak spot for years for Rice, they return 10 starters.
Kansas has big lard ass as a coach who is a piece of shit. They do have a very good running game, and a good quarterback in Jake Heaps but not much of anything else. There defense is made up of junior college transfers.
Quite simply I do not see Kansas keeping up with Rice on offense, despite having Heap and a strong running game. The line right now is 7 and I would take it all the way up to 10.
Hopefully this will pass for my explanation on why I have Rice as my play of the week.

[butler053]

That was a solid explanation. I asked for it to educate myself, not to test you. 31 points against A&M is a great outing for most teams in the FBS. Thanks for your help!

[Urbanwildlife]

You had a legitimate question, and I am one who if I make a post, I back it up with facts, and not like most on here who have none, but just pick a team on a whim.

[Night-Tripper]

You had a legitimate question, and I am one who if I make a post, I back it up with facts, and not like most on here who have none, but just pick a team on a whim.

You also enjoy trolling...

[Urbanwildlife]

and going to the pay window! As I have told you many times in the past, your jealousy will get you no where, and that is why I am sure you will continue to be a loser in life. With that being said, I wish you nothing but the very best, also like I have told you a number of times.

You want to know anything more about me I direct you to Mac4Lyfe, as I am sure he would have no problem sharing my success with you in handicapping games or in life.

[Night-Tripper]

and going to the pay window! As I have told you many times in the past, your jealousy will get you no where, and that is why I am sure you will continue to be a loser in life. With that being said, I wish you nothing but the very best, also like I have told you a number of times.

You want to know anything more about me I direct you to Mac4Lyfe, as I am sure he would have no problem sharing my success with you in handicapping games or in life.

As I have said before, you are a legend in your own mind. And, I am in no way, shape, form or fashion jealous of you or anything about you. (I think I've stated that before also.)

I develop my own opinions about people... I don't need anyone's assistance... and I don't think I'll be making any inquiries into your references from anyone. As far as success in lfe, been there/done that. I'm retired and living a comfortable life. I wake up when I feel like it and do what I want, when I want.

Have a nice day!

[Night-Tripper]

Kansas has little or no chance. Rice is the play of the week. They are a very good team.

Rice had value when they were -4... not so much once it got to 5.5.

[Eddy Munny]

Hey what's goin' on in here guys? What are we talkin' about? I was just passing through and I heard a little bit of fussin' from just down the way. Is there a problem here? Is the new guy asking too many questions? Did someone forget to flush?

[Night-Tripper]

Hey what's goin' on in here guys? What are we talkin' about? I was just passing through and I heard a little bit of fussin' from just down the way. Is there a problem here? Is the new guy asking too many questions? Did someone forget to flush?

Just make sure you genuflect whenever you enter a thread that Erwin Wildlife's participated in... he is an omnipotent gambler... just ask him.

[Eddy Munny]

I don't take much of a likin' to that new guy pokin' around in here an' askin' all sorts of questions. I reckon he's a mole from some task force tryin' to take us all down and put a feather in his cap like Yankee Doodle Dandelion.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Welcome,

i definitely like UCLA alot more than nebraska as a team to play but not sure i'll do it here. prob no play

thought you could get more points on wisconsin but maybe it's moved. ASU is much much improved from the last 10-15 years (ASU and Arizona have sort of been these "blah" teams for quite awhile, but that has changed)....probably play wisconsin if i had to, but no play for me.

not completely sure who indiana is playing or where. ball? indiana didn't look good against navy.. ok indiana hosting BG ..

the two power ratings i checked have rice 15 points better than kansas and it's at rice.. .... kansas is wild card. stud transfer QB. nice JC additions, and no matter what anyone thinks weiss is a good coach (i'm not a fan btw)

i get the feeling you like big conferences over mid conferences.......... but i think one of the best angles last few years is the world getting smaller and lesser schools getting alot better. whereas indiana was always known to recruits. tons of competition for not that much in-state talent...

i think good mid majors have been a great angle against weak major conferences. a little look-ahead bias as i'm probably judging who is a good mid-major team after the fact, but still they have been good value.

i think phil steele and marc lawerence, both whom i like, had indiana as a really improved team but i think that's played out. steele now has them 3 points worse than start of year.

[Night-Tripper]

I don't take much of a likin' to that new guy pokin' around in here an' askin' all sorts of questions. I reckon he's a mole from some task force tryin' to take us all down and put a feather in his cap like Yankee Doodle Dandelion.

The newby, newby? The only side I liked that he mentioned was UCLA... but I fukked up and didn't snatch it early Sunday evening when it got bumped up to 6.5. So, I'm gonna leave it alone since I missed out on the value play... will wait and see what kind of odds/line I can get via Live betting should they get down by 7 -> 10 to the corn shuckers.