[Outhouse Tim]

Probably won't post all my previews, unless anyone wants a specific team or conference. Did decide to post this one more. Sorry the words stick together. I'm trying to correct it, but the document from WORD does not seem to paste well here. 2013 BIG 12
1T. Oklahoma State

After going 23-3 in’10-’11 OK St was due for a slight decline. We projected 8-4. They went 7-5before winning their bowl game vs. an inferior Purdue team. The needle seems to be pointing up again this year but a few things must come together before predictions of a Big 12 titleare realized. AREAS TO WATCH: Mike Gundy is changing bothCoordinators for ’13. The new OC is from Shippensburg. He inherits a senior laden offense that should be tough to stop. Popular (and talented) DC Young was “fired”. The new DC has been on staff for several years. He inherits 7 returning starters,also senior laden. PK/P Sharp was exceptional here in Stillwater. His replacement at PK is UCLA transfer Kip Smith. OK St had 22 regular season team sacks. A JUCO DL with sack ability is another one to watch. ’13 PREVIEW: It’s always interesting when teams play SEC opponents, so playing Mississippi State (in Houston) to open the season is meaningful. The Big 12 season starts tricky when OK St has to travel to rebuilding WV. Win that game and perhaps this is your Big 12 favorite? Playing pesky TCU can be tricky but not only is that game at home (again) but it comes with a two week preparation period. Assuming they get wins at ISU (’11 BCS efforts spoiled here) and at TT (good history) then the season comes down to games at Texas and the finale hosting Oklahoma. The Texas series has been one the road team has often won. Hosting Oklahoma has been a challenge. BOTTOM LINE: At 1^stglance we noted (when doing the team sheet) about 9 or 10 wins. Now the thought is more than that. This team is deep in senior talent. They may not be a shutdown type unit but there are no real flaws. How fast can the new OC/DC take control? Can there be no PK drop-off? Can they find sack help? Perhaps they are a dark horse for the BCS title. Anything less than 10-2 would seem like a disappointment. SPREADNOTES: This part of my report not included

1T. Oklahoma

10 wins were expected in ’12. The losses were unexpected. Losing at home as a 16 point favorite to K Stis all about the coaching disparity between Snyder and Stoops. Losing by 17 as a DD favorite to ND is ridiculous. Oklahoma rebounded by winning several close November games but at no point did they ever dominate abowl worthy opponent. Are they no longer a true BCS title contender? AREAS TO WATCH: Oklahoma’s point D was 3^rd in the Big 12 but has been creeping up. Only 3 or 4 starters return on D so the point D may again creep up. The run D was awful in ’12 (corrected 4.95-186.5). The projection of 4.5 is still too high. An ew DL coach (one of several new coaches this year) will try to fix things. It is possible Oklahoma will feature more QB running in ’13. Blake Bell (11 rush TD’s) is the frontrunner but whoever wins the job is not likely to approach the passing #’s Landry Jones had. ’13 PREVIEW: Three offensively minded teams (ULM, WV, Tulsa) come to Norman to start ’13. All three could have defensive issues. We should get a good read on OU’s defense and QB after these games. OU will seek revenge at ND and will have two weeks to prepare. Somewhat dangerous TCU is next, followed by Texas. The schedule actually softens after that game, with the only real test prior to game #11 being at Baylor. By all accounts OU should be at or near the top of the Big 12 at this point, but the final games are at K St and at OK St. BOTTOM LINE: 12-0, of course! First it was Texas and then it was Florida. These teams were picked #1 by me each year until they actually achieved #1. Texas did it with Vince Young. Florida did it on the 1^st try the very next year. We’re still waiting on Oklahoma! Seriously, Vegas linemakers have set the win total at 8.5. Oklahoma usually gets outcoached twice a year, and the defense looks like a work in progress but 9-3 should be the goal. Games will be close without a shutdown D and perhaps without a spread the field QB but this is Oklahoma and they will be favored 9 or 10 times. At least there should be less pressure on Stoops this year. SPREAD NOTES:

3. Texas

Was Texas really as bad as people thought they were in ’12? Losses were to WV, Oklahoma, TCU and K St. They beat OK St on the road and upset TT onthe road as well. With 19 returning starters most everyone would agree that Texas will be an even better team this season. AREAS TO WATCH: With an outstanding OL all back the run O should be solid in ’13. The fad is to pass more but THIS team should balance it out with all impact RB’s returning. The run D was unacceptable in’12 at 5.0/207. The ’13 projection is 4.3 which is still higher than any figure they’ve had in at least the previous12 years. The conference point D was 34. That is too high. ’13 PREVIEW: Texas can’t complain about this schedule which is tailor made for success. There are no BB road games. They have 11 days before going to play ISU (ISU has 7). They have two extra days to prepare for Oklahoma. They have a bye after the tough Oklahoma game before their revenge game at TCU. The early schedule features a game at BYU which could be tough, but hosting OL Miss and a rebuilding K St team early in the year should be SU wins. If the Texas D falters, then games at WV, home to powerful OK St and at offensively-minded Baylor in the finale won’t be pushovers. My advice: Run more and control time of possession, although enough talent exists on D that we should see solid improvement. BOTTOM LINE: Texas should be at least 4-1 early and will be favored to win games at WV and hosting OK St. The extra days to prep for Oklahoma could turn into something special. The D faces tough tests at WV and Baylor but ultimately the 11/16 game hosting OK St might be for the Big 10 title, especially if Texas did beat Oklahoma. 10-2 should be in play, as 9-3is a bit of a setback for this veteran team. Can the D deliver? SPREAD NOTES:
4T. TCU

’12 wasn’t easy for the well-coached Horned Frogs. Some key(defensive) players were booted off the team prior to the season. Good QB Pachall was suspended during theseason. TCU returned just 8 starters in’11 and just 9 in ’12! Still, they stood 4-0 before the QB suspension, but after losing to ISU became an underdog the entire rest of the season and finished 7-5. Now that they got their feet wet in the Big 12, TCU aims to crack into the perceived top 3 teams (Oklahoma, OK St, Texas) for ’13. AREAS TO WATCH: Literally MINUTES before we write this (8/1/13) a starting RT has left the team. The OL was already projected to be one year away and now the task is harder. All RB’s, including Nebraska transfer Green must be checked as the run O fell short in ’12. Defensively, TCU was #1 in the Big 12 last year, but sometimes defense is optional in this conference. To stay that way they will need a very young DL to produce. Only two SR’s are projected to start and they are DB’s. At one point TCU had won 23 straight at home. They were 0-4 SU inconference last year and that must change! ’13 PREVIEW: TCU’s schedule was obviously tougher than usual last year. This year LSU replaces Virginia, so the difficulty increases. The game kicks off TCU’s season and is in Arlington. TCU lost a wild 56-53 OT game to TT last year. Can they return the favor vs. a new staff at TT on a Thursday? TCU must play at Oklahoma and OK St in October. A key game after that is hosting a rested, revenge-minded Texas team. By now we’ll know how the backfield is performing as well as the young front 7 on D. Games at ISU and K St could be dangerous but the finale hosting Baylor finds TCU off a bye while Baylor is in a difficult stretch of games. BOTTOM LINE: HC Patterson and DC Bumpas are two of the best in the business. TCU figures to be better thanin ’12, but how much better depends on how the youth of this team performs. In all it looks like just 4 SR’s will start. In some respects playing LSU and TT early is a blessing but the feeling is that TCU will run hot and cold in ‘13. This looks like a 7 or 8 win team. 9 wins would not only be overachieving, but would likely serve notice that in ’14 TCU may be fully able to challenge for the Big 12 title. SPREAD NOTES:

4T. Kansas State

Nick Saban is one of the greatest coaches of all time. Fine,but Bill Snyder IS the best coach I’ve seen during my lifetime! K St is 21-3 the last two regular seasons. A loss at Baylor prevented the Wildcats from playing ND in the title game. Even with a depleted roster it’s hard to believe K St will fall off the bowl map. AREAS TO WATCH: Offensively, QB Klein graduated. JUCO talent Jake Waters is the likely successor. Most of the offense returns but at WR the starters weigh in at less than 175 LBS! Defensively, it’s a mess! They return 3 guys who have started at K St,with 13, 7 and 4 starts respectively! The front seven is all new. Snyder is famous for incorporating JC’s into the program but the ratings were a bit low in ’12 and are a bit lower this year as well. The projected run D moves to 4.3. The projected pass D is 63%. K St is unlikely to come close to a +21 turnover ratio, so points will be lost. The return game is elite, but losing a 19-23 PK and replacing him with an unrated talent could be fatal in close games! Sacks are also projected to go down. ’13 PREVIEW: How fast can Snyder put this together? Games 1-2 “sound” easier than they are. North Dakota St went 14-1 and won the FCS title. ULL is a top level Sun Belt team who actually beat K St in Snyder’s 1^st road game upon his return. The early conference schedule is at Texas and at OK St. K St could easily be 2-3 at this point. The key checks prior to a nice three game home stand (Baylor, WV, ISU) are QB effectiveness, PK% and defensive projections. Playing at TT has been difficult but let’s see how that new staff isdoing. After hosting TCU and Oklahoma, KSt’s last game is at Kansas. For some reason this in-state rivalry has always been played much earlier. Late November is where it belongs! BOTTOM LINE: 7-5 or 8-4? K St is basically replacing its entire defense, a Heisman finalist at QB, and a very good PK. It’s Bill Snyder, so anything is possible! SPREAD NOTES:


6. Baylor

How good are things at Baylor? They lose RG III and don’t miss a beat offensively. They return 8 starterson a D that couldn’t possibly get any worse but still allowed 4.95/64% along with a Big 10 point D of 41 per game. They won 8 games last year including their final 4. Can this madness continue? AREAS TO WATCH: Once again, 3^rd year DC Phil Bennett fixed absolutely nothing. 8 of their top10 tacklers return but both DT’s are gone. Until proven otherwise our defensive #’s will remain high. Another new QB takes over, but he’ll probably fit nicely in Art Briles’ system. He can hand off to RB Seastrunk, an elite talent. There really aren’t any keys to look at. What you see is what you get. ’13PREVIEW: Any defensive improvement could make Baylor dangerous. The non-conference slate is weak, so 3-0 is likely. The conference slate starts with two weeks to prepare for revenge vs. WV. This means 4-0 to a road game at “rebuilding” K St. The Wildcats return just one defensive starter. If Baylor wins this they could be 7-0 before a huge Thursday game hosting Oklahoma. Win or lose, the Bears get two extra days to prep for TT. We don’t expect 9-0, but Baylor could be competitive all nine games. The final games are tougher, with OK St having revenge, TCU playing real defense and at home, and Texas also seeking revenge. BOTTOM LINE: 6-1 to Oklahoma, but 7 or 8 wins total. That’s not bad considering how porous this D is. Adjustments will be made if the defensive #’s change, but if they stay the same then Baylor will be vulnerable to the many good offensive teams on their schedule. SPREAD NOTES:

7. West Virginia

Think back to October’12. WV was 5-0 in their new conference and #5 in the polls. By mid-November they were 5-5 and the luster was gone. Offense wasn’t the problem, but the D allowed 248 points in games 6-10. What’s in store for ’13? AREAS TO WATCH: Holgorson knows offense, which is good, since WV loses Geno Smith and a pair of top-notch WR’s. The recruiting haul at WR was strong and the RB’s are vets. The OL won’t be quite as good. FSU transfer Trickett hopes to win the QB job. Defensively,WV finished dead last with a 43.3 conference point D. The run D was solid at 3.7, but too many big pass plays were allowed (38-10 TD-int ratio). Another new DC is on board, although he was here last year as“co-DC”. The point D will be a must watch area all year. ’13 PREVIEW: WV has owned Maryland of late, so if that continues WV will be 3-1 SU early on thanks to games vs. William and Mary (2-9) and Georgia St (1-10). Holgorsen was the OC at OK St before coming here and he clearly wants to win hosting the Cowboys 9/28. If he fails, the emotional roller coaster could begin, as Holgorson gets too emotional at times. If they are flat for Baylor then 3-1 can quickly become 3-3. Win or lose (although a win puts them in a solid plus category), WV has two weeks to prep for a 49-14 loss to TT that changed their ’12 fortunes for the worse. Matching wits in road games with Coach Snyder (K St) and Coach Patterson (TCU) won’t be easy. A split of these games would be more than satisfying. They host Texas next, with Texas out for revenge. If the keys are not met, then games at Kansas and vs. ISU might be important for bowl eligibility. BOTTOM LINE: Beware of streaks with such an emotional staff. Key game #1 is vs. OKSt. A win here could lead to 8-4. A loss here could put them about 4-5 SU to key game #2, hosting Texas. Lose both and WV can still go 6-6 since they have a situational schedule plus vs. ISU. This is hardly an elite team, but the win total of 5.5 seems a bit low. SPREAD NOTES:

8. Texas Tech

What’s for dinner! Tommy Tuberville won’t be able to answer that as right in the middle of a dinner event with TT recruits he got in his car and accepted the job at Cincy! TT turned around and hired former QB Kingsberry, someone they know is committed to this school. As the youngest BCS HC, how ready can he be to run this program? AREAS TO WATCH: One thing Tommy can do is talk! The recruits he brought in were good so there’s reason for optimism. Another piece of good news is the -12 turnover ratio, which likely will improve in’13. The OL is young but the DL is a veteran group that should add to their low total of 16 regular season sacks. The pass D% was a stout 55% in ’12 but won’t likely be as strong with three new starters. ’13 PREVIEW: TT’s early schedule is quite manageable. They open at SMU. Game #3 is hosting TCU. They get a bye before going to Kansas. Game #6 is hosting ISU and game #7 is at WV. As long as turnovers are kept low (likely) and the defensive #’s stay in a decent range (a must check) then 5-2 is certainly reachable. The key conference games are hosting OK St and K St and their neutral game vs. Baylor. Historically, TT owns edges in all three situations! Maybe this initial season goes fairly well? BOTTOM LINE: The passion will be huge, but there has to be growing pains for Kingsbury. IF defensive consistency is present then 8-4 is possible. A more realistic 1^styear # is 7-5. Somehow I think this won’t be that smooth an early ride, but more will be known by October 19^th (at WV). SPREAD NOTES:


9. Iowa State

In the last two seasons ISU has been a dog in 19 of 22 lined games. ISU is 7-12 SU in those games, ISU has been to bowls in three of the past four seasons. Guess what! They will be an underdog at least nine more times in ’13. Will they continue to be bowl material? AREAS TO WATCH: At 1^st glance, this team has some rebuilding to do. They have a decent backfield, enough so that we project a high 4.5 yards per carry on offense. The problem is ISU returns a league low 9 starters, and two NFL bound elite LB’s are gone. All eyes will be on JC DL Coe to prevent regression in run D #’s. ISU is a 60% vs. play when not a rush pick and this could be an issue even more so without’12 talent or depth. They will also start anew at WR, hoping JC star Bibbs makes an immediate impact. ’13 PREVIEW: In an unusual scheduling development ISU has byes after game one and game two. Iowa has revenge in that 2^nd game,while ISU has bowl revenge vs. Tulsa in the 3^rd game. They open Big 12 play at home on Thursday night vs. Texas. We know ISU is famous for its upsets, but Texas is dangerous with extra rest. One possible upset is at TT 9 days later. Baylor will be focused the following week, as will Oklahoma St, who lost a possible BCS Title game appearance in ’11 at ISU in a thrilling game. K St is a great home team, but this is one of their worst teams (or so it seems). ISU needs to find wins to get to the magic # of 6 and hopes this is one of them. They host TCU but the Frogs will want revenge. Bowl eligibility could come down to 11/29 at WV. ISU lost by 7 to them last year but WV, like ISU is not as good this season. BOTTOM LINE: Paul Rhodes can coach, but the ceiling has been 6 wins with better teams than this one. TheGreek.com and its clones used 6 wins as their future total. We see 4-8! LB’s Knott and Klein might rank among the best they’ve ever had on D. They will be missed. UNDER, PLEASE! SPREAD NOTES:

10. Kansas

Charlie Weis was 35-27 at ND, which means he went through some serious HC growing pains. His 1^st Kansas team opened up with a win vs. “powerhouse” South Dakota State but then lost its last 11 games. A whopping 19 JUCO’s have been added and many of them are considered elite. Is Weis the kind of HC that can make all this work out? AREAS TO WATCH: Kansas has lost 8 of its top 10 tacklers so it’s all about the JUCO’s. 5 are projected to start, including a pair of top 10 prospects. Offensively, 3 lower rated JUCO’s are projected to start along the OL. The run O delivered in ’12 and is even better now. ND transfer QB Chryst was a disappointment in ’12 at 47.7% with just 4 TD passes. Weis hopes BYU transfer Jake Heaps is better. In specific, Kansas needs to produce more than 12 sacks and the returning PK needs to hit better than 50%. ’13 PREVIEW: KU played Rice tough (lost on a last second PK) but now goes to a very experienced Owl team. KU has won 9 of its last 46 games, all at home (0-23 road) so this looks like an early loss as the JUCO’s will need time to blend together as a unit. There can be no excuses however when they host an equally rebuilding L Tech team with a new staff. That result will be telling for ’13. A bye week precedes their hosting TT, also with a new staff. KU lost in double OT to them in ’12. The schedule gets tougher after that, but games 10-12 are hosting WV, at ISU and hosting rival K St. If KU can’t sneak in at least one win late then no progress has been made. BOTTOM LINE: KU has every opportunity to be at least 2-2 early which would likely give them a 3 or 4 win season. Goals this year should be the following:Increase the point O, move from 12 to 20+ sacks, and win one game on the road. Do that and ’14 will look brighter with a whole bunch of seniors on the roster. SPREAD NOTES: