[WorkHorse]

During the past five seasons (2008-2012), these five teams have been killers if you bet on them while playing at home.


Worst Home Bets:
Eastern Michigan (7-19 SU, 8-18 ATS)
New Mexico St. (7-22 SU, 9-20 ATS)
Akron (7-22 SU, 10-19 ATS)
South Florida (17-15 SU, 11-20-1 ATS)
Louisville (18-14 SU, 12-20 ATS)

These five teams combined for a 56-92 home record while being a money burning 50-97 against the spread. My guess is these teams will be a good fade at home this season.

[WorkHorse]

Best/Worst Home Bets by Conference (2008-2012)
(Straight Up and Against the Spread)

SEC
Best: Arkansas (24-9 SU, 22-11 ATS)
Worst: Tennessee (23-15, 14-23-1)

Big 10
Best: Ohio State (33-5, 22-16)
Worst: Illinois (17-17, 14-20)

ACC
Best: North Carolina St. (25-10, 23-10-1)
Worst: Virginia (15-18, 12-20-1)

Big 12
Best: Oklahoma State (29-8, 23-14)
Worst: West Virginia (26-9, 13-21-1)

Pac 12
Best: Stanford (31-3, 23-11)
Worst: Washington State (8-22, 14-16)

MAC
Best: Northern Illinois (27-4, 18-12-1)
Worst: Eastern Michigan (7-19, 8-18)

C-USA
Best: Louisiana Tech (19-10, 18-10-1)
Worst: Tulane (9-23, 12-20)

MWC
Best: Utah State (20-10, 18-12)
Worst: Wyoming (11-19, 11-19)

Sun Belt
Best: Texas State (3-3, 5-1)
Worst: South Alabama (2-4, 0-6)

[Louisvillekid1]

Louisville should be pretty explosive and with that weak schedule I'd be careful fading..

[gojetsgomoxies]

i like this analysis and appreciate it.

but frankly if i blindly saw a team was 33% ATS the last 2 years i might prefer to go long the team than short with no other information

basically i'd rather blindly long 25% ATS teams from last year than than 75% ATS teams from last year

surely someone (me in the next few days) can look at 75%+ and 25%- ATS teams from the last 5 seasons and see how they did the next season.