1. 11-06-12 01:04 AM #1
    tto827
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    Which way do you think the lines will move in these games?

    I like these games, just wondering which ones you guys think I should take now, and which ones I should wait on.

    Ball St +6.5 (would buy to 7)
    Northwestern +11
    Miami (FL) +1
    Kent St -6.5
    TX AM +13.5 (would buy to 14)
    ND -19
    San Jose St -22.5
    Arizona -31.5
    Louisiana Tech -19.5
    Fresno St -3

    Fresno is -115, the rest are -110
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  2. 11-06-12 06:13 AM #2
    bane
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    Did you check Vegas Insider to see where the lines opened? Some have already inched up on ya.
    Fresno was -2.5 -120, ND was -18.5. SJSU will likely trend upward. Public faves push the line or increase juice, generally. If the public loves Northwestern as a dog, that'll push the line down.... you know how it goes.
    Wait on any teams that have key players as "questionable" on the injured list.

    I'm still new at this & don't claim to understand line movement, but that's my 2 cents.
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  3. 11-06-12 10:53 AM #3
    tto827
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    Didn't know about vegas insider, thanks for the help. I refuse to buy into the idea that how the line moves is relevant to the outcome of the game, I just want to get the best number possible.
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  4. 11-06-12 10:56 AM #4
    nvrlose37
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    Where is la tech -19.5? Im hoping they inch up because Im liking Tex St.
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  5. 11-06-12 12:28 PM #5
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by nvrlose37 View Post
    Where is la tech -19.5? Im hoping they inch up because Im liking Tex St.
    dsi, but it seems they are -20 most places now
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  6. 11-06-12 02:50 PM #6
    bane
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    Quote Originally Posted by tto827 View Post
    Didn't know about vegas insider, thanks for the help. I refuse to buy into the idea that how the line moves is relevant to the outcome of the game, I just want to get the best number possible.
    Glad to help! Just noticed that when the public loves a side, that side becomes more expensive and/or the line creeps up. You can see a list of public faves at thespread to test the direct correlation.
    While it's best not to read the tea leaves, don't ignore significant movement altogether. New information moves lines. Injuries, suspensions etc could very well affect the outcome of a game.
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  7. 11-07-12 01:00 PM #7
    tto827
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    Quote Originally Posted by bane View Post
    Glad to help! Just noticed that when the public loves a side, that side becomes more expensive and/or the line creeps up. You can see a list of public faves at thespread to test the direct correlation.
    While it's best not to read the tea leaves, don't ignore significant movement altogether. New information moves lines. Injuries, suspensions etc could very well affect the outcome of a game.
    Thanks again. And yes, line movement is something to consider, but just cause its moving one way or the other does not make a certain side the correct pick, which some people here seem to believe. That's the only point I was trying to make.
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  8. 11-07-12 02:44 PM #8
    bane
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    Agreed. Some folks here are a little insane w/ the line movements & meaningless trends going back to 1999.
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  9. 11-07-12 04:12 PM #9
    coitus_maximus
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    Be careful of VegasInsider. Their player bets are not very accurate. Like the spread much better, but of course why would any casino really give out their bets.
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  10. 11-08-12 01:12 AM #10
    tto827
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    Got sick of waiting locked these in a two days ago at...
    NW +11 -110
    Miami +1 -110
    Kent st -6.5 -110
    Tx AM +14.5 -130 (I know I shouldn't have bought the half, but gut feeling this ends at 14)
    ND -19 -110
    SJSU -22.5 -110
    AZ -30.5 -110
    Fresno -3 -115
    Also had Ohio -2 -110 and ML
    and Ball St ML and +6.5
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