[JMon]

Today we have situation I have followed for a couple years with good success and I decided I would share it. It involves the match up btwn Cuse v Rutgers. Although the line movement is confusing but here we go...

This is rather simple where we want to play under on road team with a total of 42.5 to 49 involving a team with a average rushing offense (140-190 RY/gm- Cuse 143 RY/gm) vs an excellent rushing defense (allowing 100 or less RY/gm-Rutgers 61 RY/gm). The basis is sound here for an under play. This situation has hit at 68.5% since 2003, but has been trending nicely 18-2 under the L3 and is currently 3-0 under this season. We can increase the win% by adding another small parameter to the "excellent defensive team" which is simply following two games where they allowed 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. By doing this we see the win% hit at 83.9% under since 2003, 5-0 under the L3 and 1-0 this season.

Rutgers rushing def..last 2 games..

- Rutgers vs Ark(19-73 RY)
- Rutgers vs UConn (28-53 RY)

23062372

2012-10-13 09:41:47.0

INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 220 win 200

134 Rutgers/Syracuse under 48½ (-110) risk 220 win 200 (NCAA FB)

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[JMon]

Turnover prone teams = 1H overs

We simply want to play over 1H on road teams (total 25-28) averaging 2.5 TOs/gm following a game where they forced at least 3 TOs. This situation is 32-13 (71.1%) OV since 2003, but is trending nicely at 17-0 ov L3 and is 1-0 this season.

We have three matchups involving this situation today...

S. ALA -averaging 3.2 TOs/gm - forced 5 TOs against Troy
Idaho - averaging 3.0 TOs/gm - forced 4 TOs against NMEXST
SMU -averaging 2.8 TOs/gm - forced 3 TOs against UTEP

23062906	2012-10-13 10:13:27.0	INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 220 win 200	205 H1 South Alabama/Arkansas State over 26½ (-110) risk 220 win 200 (NCAA FB 1st H)	Print
23062906	2012-10-13 10:13:27.0	INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 220 win 200	151 H1 Idaho/Texas St over 27 (-110) risk 220 win 200 (NCAA FB 1st H)	Print
23062906	2012-10-13 10:13:27.0	INTERNET: Straight Bet risk 220 win 210	191 H1 SMU/Tulane over 26½ (-105) risk 220 win 210 (NCAA FB 1st H)	Print

[JMon]

Cashed the under in the Cuse game...but hook got me on the SMU game. My own fault on this one..line opened at 25, moved too 25.5 and then to 26.5. I didn't start handicapping until this morning and it figures the line moved on me too much. Hopefully, the other two cash!