I realize that on paper this makes very little sense. And I'm a little concerned about this line opening at +4 pre-market. But this is college hoops -- home upsets, or at least close games, happen. I think most of us forget that because it's been pretty much business as usual in college hoops so far this season -- a lot of easy public wins.
Kentucky is obviously the more physically gifted team, but they're playing their first true road game of the season with a lot of young, inexperienced kids. IU returns everyone, and has Zeller in the mix now as well. IU lost by 19 at Rupp last season, but this was a 1-point game at half and IU led with 9 minutes left. They were down 6 at the under 4 timeout. Kentucky pulled away with a huge closing run and a +30 free throw margin at home, and Liggins, Knight and Harrellson are all gone (their three leading scorers that day).
Kentucky is definitely a Top-5 team, but they're far from invincible. Bloomington can be one of the toughest and loudest places in the nation to play. IU will have to be at their very best, but I think they can keep this game within two possessions and at the very least cover. Haven't locked anything in yet, but I'm tempted to go pretty big on the Hoosiers in this spot.
Thoughts?