[B1AZE]

CFB: 17-12 (58.6%) +4.45 units

11-12-11

Im looking at 10 plays or so and adding something in the night hours if something gets a little better number. I know people want to bet the Ducks/Birds game and i have a really strong opinion in that game as well.

2* Illinois PK

1* LTech ML (-125)

1* Georgia -11.5

1* W. Kentucky +42.5

1* KST +6 (-115)

1* SMU -7 (Buying point -125)

1* SC / Florida U42 (Buying point -125)

1* TCU / Boise U59 (Bodog)

1* Cincy -3 (-115)

1* Nebraska -3

1* NC ST -2


Illnois PK/ Michigan
If you're looking at simple things like PPG and OPPG then you'd think Michigans a lock here. However, i dont like to handicap football using those stats. I like to identify a teams strength and see if the defense is going to be able to contain it and vice versa. Michigan runs the ball extremely well avg 5.6 ypr and 232 rushing ypg. Illinois on the other hand has a very stout rush defense that allows 2.9 ypr which is top 6-7 in the nation. Will Michigan be able to run wild? Probably not, but its no lock they'll shut it completely down either. But i think at worse they minimize it so i don't see it as a strength anymore. I also don't trust Denard Robinson passing the ball on the road and the Illini defense usually puts alot of pressure on the QB's. Nathan Scheelhaase is completing 62% of his passes for the Illini. So i obviously like the home field advantage. Stout rush defense that can get pressure on the QB (3rd in sacks per game). That doesn't bode well for D. Robinson and you have the better "passer" in Nathan Scheelhaase against a defense allowing QB's to complete 60% of their passes. I'll take the Illini here at home against a Michigan team that's finally showing they're not as GOOD as people thought.

LTECH ML (-125) vs Ole Miss
This one comes down to making plays and i don't think Ole Miss can do a whole lot. The Quarterbacking is awful and their rushing will be neutralized by a top 20 rush defense. I like Creer and Patton to make some plays in this game and get the win on the road against a shitty SEC team that can't beat Kentucky.

Georgia -11.5 vs Auburn
I usually try to avoid double digits at home, but i really like this Georgia defense. They allow 51% completion percentage and can flat out get picks and sacks. I didn't even mention the top 10 rush defense that hopefully can stall Michael Dyer. If they can stall Dyer then Aaron Murray to Orson Charles will be key enough hevhre and the Georgia defense takes advantage of the turnover battle and this covers.

Western Kentucky +42.5 vs LSU
LSU off a win against Alabama and im not sure they'll be ready to drop 45-50 offensively to cover this. I can totally see them shutting out WKY. But if WKY even scores one TD then LSU needs to score 50. So who is WKY? Well they've won 5 straight and they rush 40+ times a game. You might think so what its against the LSU rushing defense. But that tells me we might see some clock running and when you need a team to score 50 against you then i am all for that. WKY doesn't play in the SEC and play against elite teams but they do play decent defense. Im thinking 44-6 type of game here.

Texas AM vs KST (+6)
Home dog getting 5.5/6 here? hmmm....take the points.

SMU (-7) vs Navy
Everyone knows whats going to happen. Navy will run the **** out of the ball and SMU will cover if they contain it. SMU allows 3.2 ypr. Now the question will be: "Ya, but that's not against a navy type of rushing attack." .....which is true, but i look at this game like i did with VT/GT. VT was really good against the rush and contained them and when you contain a one dimensional team you don't need much to winif you can score points . SMU should make some plays against a very WEAK Navy pass defense. Now some people buy points.....some don't. I will anytime i can save myself or get a better number. Even though im fairly certain the move from 7 to 8 is telling me im right here. I'll still get back to 7 just to make sure. If i can put -130 on Bud Norris and the Astro's or -130 on Chad Billingsley and nobody says shit then i can do that in football to get better numbers. lol...you're either for it or against it. You know where i stand and quite frankly when i hear people saying buying points will kill you. I think that applies to people who can't pick winners. I pick winners, so it might eat at my profits every once and awhile, but it won't ever break me because i can pick 56%+ in CFB. It'll make me more money in the long term.

SC / Florida U42
Two really good defenses and SC at home after getting lit up against Arkansas. Which should provide the thought that their defense isn't as good as we thought. Well Brantley isn't Wilson and i don't see either team scoring much. Losing Lattimore really hurt SC on offense (OBVIOUSLY) and Wilds is alright, but it took away a certain element that can't be replaced. Mainly scoring rushing touchdowns. Shaw rushes alot and he sucks at it. He hurts them more then he helps there IMO. I don't see a whole lot offensively here and Brantley should have a hard time against the SC defense. I played the under in SC/Arkansas last week and now thinking about it i wouldnt do it twice, because this is a much better situation with them at home and not playing against Wilson and company on the road.

Boise ST / TCU U59
I know Casey Pachell has had a great season and a very suprising one with Dalton leaving and pretty much not missing a beat, but this is the true test. Big game and on the road against a very good Boise ST defense that limits damage done by QB's. They allow 52% completions and are 7th in Ints. TCU really hasn't played many good defensive teams and not the greatest conditions on the field either from what i read. I think Boise gives him fits today and TCU does have a pretty good defense themselves. Also they roll with the best redzone defense in the nation. Which should help against the BEAST Kellen Moore. Everyone on the over....I can see why they're wrong.

I personally think alot of people look at betting %'s and line moves and make an opinion based on that and on what they can remember. I love seeing a lopsided number and doing the research to figure out why the other side looks more appealing. Im not saying its a lock by no means because i know what Kellen is capable of. But to see 85% on the over makes no sense to me after digging into this matchup. But a few OT's could change that in no time. You just really never know.

Cincy -3
Im a big believer in this Cincy team as they have alot of the things i look for and i believe they're in a good position to finish strong.

Nebraska -3......not much to say here. Penn St is done for the year.

NC ST -2
should beat Boston College by a touchdown atleast.

[B1AZE]

2H Northwestern -7....Persa should keep murdering this Rice D.

[B1AZE]

2* Stanford ML (-125)

I gotta trust Luck to get the job done.

He's the superior player in this game and he also has a great rushing attack and a pretty stout defense as well. Not to mention they lost to the Ducks last year and are at home tonight in a huge game.