[Donnie Brasco]

Ncaa 10-27

Hey guys, new midseason thread, hope i have some winners for us:

Virginia +13.5 1x
My model has this one much closer @-10.5. I think uva gets up for this one and sticks with one qb tonight. Jacory has still not convinced me, and if uva can come up with some turnovers, this will be close. Seeing 3 pts of value here.

Houston -27.5 1x
Houston is on the rise and i dont see them disappointing tonight at home. Rice is struggling this year, so houston will pour it on tonight. The advanced stats of F+ and S+P + arent even close. Houston rolls!

Houston/Rice under 70.5 2x
I really like the contrarian view of this play. The pub always equates houston and over no matter what but this line has be steady. My model has this at 65, so i see 5 points or more of value here. Not sure rice has the offense to hold up their end of the bargain.

Best of luck to all in whatever you choose insight on your part would be greatly appreciated!

[Donnie Brasco]

Ncaa 10-27

Hey guys, new midseason thread, hope i have some winners for us:

Virginia +13.5 1x
My model has this one much closer @-10.5. I think uva gets up for this one and sticks with one qb tonight. Jacory has still not convinced me, and if uva can come up with some turnovers, this will be close. Seeing 3 pts of value here.

Houston -27.5 1x
Houston is on the rise and i dont see them disappointing tonight at home. Rice is struggling this year, so houston will pour it on tonight. The advanced stats of F+ and S+P + arent even close. Houston rolls!

Houston/Rice under 70.5 2x
I really like the contrarian view of this play. The pub always equates houston and over no matter what but this line has be steady. My model has this at 65, so i see 5 points or more of value here. Not sure rice has the offense to hold up their end of the bargain.

Best of luck to all in whatever you choose insight on your part would be greatly appreciated!

Adding:

Kansas st +14 1x

vandy +10 1x

Illinois +5 1x

Mich st +4 1x

LSU +4.5 2x, ML 2x
At first glance we are looking at teams that are mirror images of one another. Hard hitting, very stingy defenses on both sides. If you look at the number of pts/yards allowed these two are ridiculous. There offenses are run first and set up the big play. Alabama has the advantage at qb imo, but lsu can throw two very diff looks at you with the mobile qb or a pocket passer in lee. Richardson is definitely the better rb, but lsu has 4 horses in the stable that can match him. Where i think lsu wins this game is depth. They are 2-4 players deep at all key positions and their def can sub out without skipping a beat. I shoulda grabbed this at 6, but 4.5 is plenty enough. The road team owns this series, and lsu wins this one outright.

Write ups to come! Busy busy busy!:cheers

[Donnie Brasco]

10-27 ncaa
W/L 2-1, -.2 units