[bachngocduong]

game 1st haft 2nd haft bullshit 2 times in 45 second kill me motheeeerrffuucckkk i QUITTTTTTTTTTT

[lakerboy]

and if Miami loses by 2 you say nothing, but no sharps who moved the line an ungodly half point had their magic genie tell them there would be a pick 6 on 4th down with 1 minute left to cover Maryland

if you're trolling you need to be thicker

i actually liked miami when it was +3.5. then just when i went to bet it it moved to +4. thats why i layed off. we can say whatever we want about the ending as in sports anything can happen but i saved myself some agony cause i trusted that i was on the wrong side after i saw the line move.


ps- its not good getting a post nominated by the prick. i still like you though sunde.

[wantitall4moi]

game was just a microcosm of why you cant win betting spreads. Reason it gets talked about so much is because it was the only game in town last night. But games like this are a dime a dozen on a regular scheduled day. Flukes, fumbles, missed xtra points, kneeling on the 3 with 45 seconds left. Whatever.

But it just shows that no matter what luck and uncertainty play a part in the game. You are either on the good side or the bad side of it. no one handicaps that, and no one uses it to weight their plays. it was luck, either good or bad. plain and simple.

People trying to justify that maryland was the better team and should have been winning by more are fooling themselves. They needed two defensive scores to even sniff that game. But of course they say maryland 'caused' them. yeah show me a guy handicapping a game who say 'maryland will get 2 defensive or special teams scores in this game and squeak by with a nice cover'. Total bullshit.

when people see games like they should take a step back and realize betting football should be for fun not to make money. scoring system is way too convoluted and the ball is a funny shape and takes way too many weird bounces to make it anything beyond a crap shoot it determining a side to win by a certain handicap.

[blackbeSSt]

i actually liked miami when it was +3.5. then just when i went to bet it it moved to +4. thats why i layed off. we can say whatever we want about the ending as in sports anything can happen but i saved myself some agony cause i trusted that i was on the wrong side after i saw the line move. ps- its not good getting a post nominated by the prick. i still like you though sunde.

i gotta agree with sunde. if you capped the game with the intent of having a pick 6 with 39 seconds to go in the game to cover, then you got very very lucky. no one capped an 8 point win with 39 seconds to go.

[Thunder Gulch]

I had the Wake Forrest disaster Thursday so I don't feel bad about getting Maryland. Maryland really should have been an easy cover if they didn't shoot themselves in the foot so much.

[thetrinity]

the books were the happiest ones about the maryland cover at the end on the pick 6. the opener was miami -5.5 after all the shit hit the fan at the u maryland closed as a 4 point favorite. they paid out exactly 0 miami tickets, any time they avoid getting middled its a win.

[wantitall4moi]

the books were the happiest ones about the maryland cover at the end on the pick 6. the opener was miami -5.5 after all the shit hit the fan at the u maryland closed as a 4 point favorite. they paid out exactly 0 miami tickets, any time they avoid getting middled its a win.

yeah that game had potential to be a money maker for a lot of guys who took both sides. But in the end it just cost everyone the juice that went that way.

[Cookie Monster]

That is why I much prefer betting moneylines, especially in close games. Repeat after me: The teams want to win, not to cover. So, there is a lot of randomness when the spread is involved. Only take spreads when you handicap the game up to that level ("They will lose, but will keep the game close enough").

[paco]

This was just like when Favre (Vikings) threw a pick 6 when they played against the Jets on the last play of the game

[lakerboy]

That is why I much prefer betting moneylines, especially in close games. Repeat after me: The teams want to win, not to cover. So, there is a lot of randomness when the spread is involved. Only take spreads when you handicap the game up to that level ("They will lose, but will keep the game close enough").

Spreads are better cause the juice is less. Juice on ml's will kill you in the end unless you take value dogs.

[wantitall4moi]

Spreads are better cause the juice is less. Juice on ml's will kill you in the end unless you take value dogs.

wrong, unless they are posting inaccurate numbers. true vig on a dime line is only going to be 2% at most. On most common lines it is even less. A 145/135 is like 1.7%, a 155/145 is 1.6%. a -107 per side spread is 3.3% so basically double, even though it is 'reduced' juice', and only a 14 cent line.

Math doesnt play a big part in sports but that is where it does.

Now in terms of particulars, used to be the fave had all the vig thrown on it, probably not so much now. But I would still say a no vig line on a game that would be -135/135 would still be -142/132, instead of -145/135 like they used to line them. But I am also sure they go to the extreme the other way on some games, home dogs, so a no vig line would be -115/115 they make the line -105/105, or basically a pick em.

Each book used to have a way they determined the split on MLs and how they distributed the vig per side. Now most books clone other books and move a penny or two on each side without rhyme or reason.

[lakerboy]

wrong, unless they are posting inaccurate numbers. true vig on a dime line is only going to be 2% at most. On most common lines it is even less. A 145/135 is like 1.7%, a 155/145 is 1.6%. a -107 per side spread is 3.3% so basically double, even though it is 'reduced' juice', and only a 14 cent line.

Math doesnt play a big part in sports but that is where it does.

Now in terms of particulars, used to be the fave had all the vig thrown on it, probably not so much now. But I would still say a no vig line on a game that would be -135/135 would still be -142/132, instead of -145/135 like they used to line them. But I am also sure they go to the extreme the other way on some games, home dogs, so a no vig line would be -115/115 they make the line -105/105, or basically a pick em.

Each book used to have a way they determined the split on MLs and how they distributed the vig per side. Now most books clone other books and move a penny or two on each side without rhyme or reason.

at the end of the day most guys playing ml's on nfl games are losing. one reason- they cant pick the right team.

[k13]

Don't watch the game. Check the final score. It will make more sense in the long run.

After it goes -3, -3.5, -4, you don't play the spread anyway. Just take MD ML or no play and go to bed.

[laclippers504]

This game was heart attack mode for many big tymers I know.

[wantitall4moi]

at the end of the day most guys playing ml's on nfl games are losing. one reason- they cant pick the right team.

well thats true,but if you pick the SU winner of the game you'll beat the spread about 85% of the time.

So in the NFL a generic rule of thumb is to bet the dog on the ML and lay the points with the fav. Not fool proof, but taking +2.5 instead betting a +130 or so ML is retarded. Or worse buying that 2.5 to +3 and paying -130 or so vig rather than just betting the dog ML. Some of the guys who claim to be the sharpest in the business and actually have people following them do that stupidity. Then when the dog wins by 17 points they chirp and crow like they did something special, yeah they laid 1300 to win a thousand when they could have laid 1000 to win 1300. thats real sound strategy there.

[chrisharvard01]

i took some in-running to try and add on my maryland 1Q bet and was VERY f_cukin pleased at that pick! If you bet MIA you've got to feel screwed.

[pokernut9999]

Maryland scored one offensive touchdown , so to say they were an easy cover

Your kidding yourself