[terpkeg]

Wiman over Miller +140 .71/1 5dimes
Wiman by Dec +340 .29/1 Bodog
- I got a better number here, and played it for a little more, but I still like it here. Basically, I like Wiman all the way down to even. Miller's stand up seems to be improving, but I still think Wiman can be quicker to the punch on the feet if he can get inside his reach. Where I think this fight is one though, is with the takedowns. Wiman has the defensive grppling ability to take Miller down and score points from the guard. Plus, Wiman has a better chance to end the fight with a KO imo. Wiman chin > Miller chin.

Brenneman over Alves -225 2.25/1 Bodog
Brenneman should win this fight with his wrestling. He had no problem taking High and Hendricks down. Great single, great outside eg trip. Despite TKO in Hendricks fight, I think Brenneman has solid chin. When he got rocked, he should have went for clinch, but instead decided to trade. Accumulation stoppage although he was still defending. Alves has a Judo black belt and comes from solid camp, but you cant pick up wrestling needed for a win here over night. If Brenneman sub defense and chin were not solid I would say -225 accurate, but i think line should be -400. Obviously my assessment could be off.

Dunham/Guillard Goes Distance +145 .69/1 5dimes
Actually think there is a slightly better chance this goes to decison than is finished and took a worse number a few days back. Best chance for finish imo is Guillard wearing down in third from getting dragged into a 10-15 minute grappling match. Guillard is quick, has good footwork. His takedown defense, while better, still leaves something to be desired, but since he got to Jackson's, his sub defense and ability to get off his back is much, much improved. Dunham, in several of his fights, has been hit early but shown composure and ability to weather storm. I would only give Guillard about a 15% chance of ko/tko.

adding......
Barry over Beltran -195 1.95/1 5dimes
Dropped under -200 and I am on it. Beltran is decent everywhere, not great anywhere. He doesnt have the wrestling to threaten Barry with takedowns and both Hague and Mitrione hurt him with leg kicks. The guy can take a beating, but after first round I feel like he doesnt have the gas to finish fights. I think Barry will be quicker to the punch and chop him down with kicks in route to a lopsided decision or a 3rd round tko. Barry seems very focused for this fight.

[The HOFF]

Well, I guess I played Barry too soon at -210. I didn't think it would get any better than that. Hopefully he doesn't get an erection like he did against CroCop, and then actually finishes the fight.

[Eccocide]

Wiman over Miller +140 .71/1 5dimes
Wiman by Dec +340 .29/1 Bodog
- I got a better number here, and played it for a little more, but I still like it here. Basically, I like Wiman all the way down to even. Miller's stand up seems to be improving, but I still think Wiman can be quicker to the punch on the feet if he can get inside his reach. Where I think this fight is one though, is with the takedowns. Wiman has the defensive grppling ability to take Miller down and score points from the guard. Plus, Wiman has a better chance to end the fight with a KO imo. Wiman chin > Miller chin.

Brenneman over Alves -225 2.25/1 Bodog
Brenneman should win this fight with his wrestling. He had no problem taking High and Hendricks down. Great single, great outside eg trip. Despite TKO in Hendricks fight, I think Brenneman has solid chin. When he got rocked, he should have went for clinch, but instead decided to trade. Accumulation stoppage although he was still defending. Alves has a Judo black belt and comes from solid camp, but you cant pick up wrestling needed for a win here over night. If Brenneman sub defense and chin were not solid I would say -225 accurate, but i think line should be -400. Obviously my assessment could be off.

Dunham/Guillard Goes Distance +145 .69/1 5dimes
Actually think there is a slightly better chance this goes to decison than is finished and took a worse number a few days back. Best chance for finish imo is Guillard wearing down in third from getting dragged into a 10-15 minute grappling match. Guillard is quick, has good footwork. His takedown defense, while better, still leaves something to be desired, but since he got to Jackson's, his sub defense and ability to get off his back is much, much improved. Dunham, in several of his fights, has been hit early but shown composure and ability to weather storm. I would only give Guillard about a 15% chance of ko/tko.

adding......
Barry over Beltran -195 1.95/1 5dimes
Dropped under -200 and I am on it. Beltran is decent everywhere, not great anywhere. He doesnt have the wrestling to threaten Barry with takedowns and both Hague and Mitrione hurt him with leg kicks. The guy can take a beating, but after first round I feel like he doesnt have the gas to finish fights. I think Barry will be quicker to the punch and chop him down with kicks in route to a lopsided decision or a 3rd round tko. Barry seems very focused for this fight.

GL tonight Terp. Glad to see you posting plays again. I have some similar plays so hopefully the night goes well .