[Jordan23]

This fight should be all but a lock for Maynard.. as the fight gets closer it might even push to close to even odds for Maynard. Especially with the reduced juice at 5dimes.

Maynard dominated Edgar in their fight and even though Edgar is much improved from that fight there is no way he will be able to stop the takedowns. Granted he does scramble very well.. They don't call Maynard the king of Lay n Pray for nothing.

The only difference in this fight will be that it will be a 5 round fight. I expect Frankie to have a slight edge in the cardio department but I don't think it will matter. I don't see a finish in this fight either way. I think it will be a classic Maynard fight.. and that's not a compliment.

2 bets you should make for this fight...

Bet on Maynard.
Bet that the fight goes the distance.

Or one or the other.. Hope this helps out guys. But this is how I see it and I really believe we're getting a good price for Maynard simply because Frankie is the champ and has beat BJ twice. Don't let that fool you. Maynard wins this fight.

Good luck everybody!

[jacktheknife]

Shows what you know. Frankie was drained at the end of their fight. "Edge in the cardio department".

[goblinburner]

frankie vastly improved in cardio,ground, what im scared is his chin maynard is the stronger guy if he lays a over right it might be night night

[jin2daj]

maynard is where my money is too.

[omalley21]

I agree. Maynard should win. I think the decision prop is a safer bet than maynard though. Frankie could jab his way to victory.

[Jordan23]

Shows what you know. Frankie was drained at the end of their fight. "Edge in the cardio department".

Shows what I know? Frankie is regarded as having some of the best cardio in the division. In both his fights against Penn he looked like he could go another 5 rounds at the end of both those fights. With this being a championship fight and him having experience in 5 round fights I expect him to have an edge in the cardio. I don't think that was much of a reach. But with that being said I expect Gray to win this fight.

[Jordan23]

I agree. Maynard should win. I think the decision prop is a safer bet than maynard though. Frankie could jab his way to victory.

I don't really see this happening. Frankie is going to be the much smaller man come fight night. It's kind of hard to jab when you're on your back but I get what you're saying.

[kiefynugs]

Shows what I know? Frankie is regarded as having some of the best cardio in the division. In both his fights against Penn he looked like he could go another 5 rounds at the end of both those fights. With this being a championship fight and him having experience in 5 round fights I expect him to have an edge in the cardio. I don't think that was much of a reach. But with that being said I expect Gray to win this fight.

I think he was just saying that Maynard had Edgar pretty gassed in their last fight, and its likely that it would happen again.

[bogbat]

Shows what I know? Frankie is regarded as having some of the best cardio in the division. In both his fights against Penn he looked like he could go another 5 rounds at the end of both those fights. With this being a championship fight and him having experience in 5 round fights I expect him to have an edge in the cardio. I don't think that was much of a reach. But with that being said I expect Gray to win this fight.

Ones cardio does not always hold up the same when they constantly have to fight off take downs.

[Vaughany]

Ones cardio does not always hold up the same when they constantly have to fight off take downs.

This is true, Edgar didnt have to worry about that agaisnt Penn. But, I'd also add that I dont think Edgar was working on his strength and conditioning with Martin Rooney at the time of the Maynard fight who is arguably the best conditioning coach out there.

[kiefynugs]

just watched that fight over again. Maynard gets about 5 or more takedowns per round. Between frankie having to constantly scoot up off the cage and maintaining a pretty active guard, he must've been tired as hell by round 3.

Maynard hit him with the biggest and cleanest shots too, although Edgar probably won on the standup due to volume of punches.

Frankie throws about 3-4 little shots before maynard can wing out a hook, then Edgar is already out for the most part. Just like the Penn fight.

[Straight Cash]

Usually in these rematches the person who won the first fight wins again.

[jacktheknife]

Ones cardio does not always hold up the same when they constantly have to fight off take downs.

I was being semi-ironic about how his most flawed premise is the one in favor of Frankie, but yeah, conditioning means something very different when you're jabbing at a totally dictated pace than when you're fighting off the grind.

[kiefynugs]

Usually in these rematches the person who won the first fight wins again.

Right around 65% of rematches have the same outcome.

[lasker]

Usually in these rematches the person who won the first fight wins again.

shocking

[Chairib]

Right around 65% of rematches have the same outcome.

But that's only 50% of the time.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Vaughany]

I assume that the thread starter is putting all of his money on Maynard then!? Or maybe I shouldnt assume as it makes an ass out of u and me.

[Jordan23]

I assume that the thread starter is putting all of his money on Maynard then!? Or maybe I shouldnt assume as it makes an ass out of u and me.

I'm not really putting "all" my money on Maynard. I just said that because of how confident I am. I will make a thread for my picks pretty soon and give the exact units I'm betting for this fight.

[Vaughany]

I'm not really putting "all" my money on Maynard. I just said that because of how confident I am. I will make a thread for my picks pretty soon and give the exact units I'm betting for this fight.

Ah I see...well I agree that a play on Maynard straddled with fight to go to decision is the best play. I've already got 7 units on Maynard at -125 so will either arb out if Edgar reaches +140 to +150 range by fight time (fingers-crossed) or straddle with the fight to decision bet.

[Jordan23]

Ah I see...well I agree that a play on Maynard straddled with fight to go to decision is the best play. I've already got 7 units on Maynard at -125 so will either arb out if Edgar reaches +140 to +150 range by fight time (fingers-crossed) or straddle with the fight to decision bet.

With 5dimes reduced juice I'm hoping by fight time it will be close to even odds.. I expect to put at least 5 units on Maynard.

[JC2008]

Maynard has Edgar's number, period.

[Jordan23]

Maynard has Edgar's number, period.

Maynard is going to win this fight. I think the more interesting thing is how well Maynard matches up with the winner of Henderson/Pettis.

[RaiderNation MMA]

maynard said frankie was the easiest fight of his career, thats saying somethin

[Vaughany]

With 5dimes reduced juice I'm hoping by fight time it will be close to even odds.. I expect to put at least 5 units on Maynard.

You expect the decision prop to be close to evens or Maynard at evens?

[BIGDAY]

I don't see Maynard getting to EV imo.

[Hammew]

Edgar wins this fight, I am not going to argue about it for 2 months but I will return after the fight is over to gloat. BOL

[sirchadwick1]

Maynard has Edgar's number, period.

They've fought once. I could see you saying this if he won 2 of 3... but they've both grown and adapted since then. I do agree that Maynard will win this fight though. But Edgar is a scrappy dude and if he can keep on his feet, I could easily see him getting the nod on the judges cards. That's the one thing that kills me when it comes to betting on MMA - the judges usually screw my night and cost me to drink heavily.

BOL to all on Maynard!

[Jordan23]

You expect the decision prop to be close to evens or Maynard at evens?

Right now I'm getting -140 for Maynard or 1.70.. I'm hoping to get 1.80 out of Maynard come reduced juice.. but I'm more than happy with -140

[JKatrib]

when do the odds for over/under rounds come out?

[Kaladarus]

when do the odds for over/under rounds come out?

They'll be out just in time for Christmas.

[ddream1]

the more i go over this fight the more i see edgar. his footwork and hand speed combined with leg kicks is vastly improved over the last fight. its what now defines him. as i see it he has more weapons to set the pace and neutralize maynard. i really don't see how maynard's striking will generate takedown opportunites. edgar moves in and out, side to side so well that i think after circling and confusing the always pocket safe maynard its edgar that actually engages the takedowns first. this is a stretch but edgar wins sorta like gsp now. for me its his timing, striking and speed that now makes fighters wonder if they will get peppered or put down. to me thats the difference now. if he establishes that on maynard then its over, maynard has no anwser to that and will be predictable, slow and depended soley on takedowns, the threat of his power will be taken away and edgar can just pick him apart.

for me i have maynard needing to strike(dirty box),push to fence and grind or work the clinch for takedowns, i think he will fight a randy couture style bout and come out very patient and slow. this i feel is the right approach but i really think edgar knows this. maynard cannot just bull in and mount over and over again, he lacks the stamina and speed. if he does he wins but isn't edgar a bit better then that now? is maynard really better striking now? isn't his ground/wrestling still the same? i just feel, and i will be adding edgar to my thread soon that he has more skills and weapons to create the offence needed to defend maynard and maynard's offence may be 1 dimensional, god knows i have been wrong before. bol guys

[westerner]

^^^ I respect the breakdown and thanks but you'd do way better if you studied more. maynard probably has the cleaner boxing with Edgar having the big volume dirty boxing down. The story of this fight could be down to how effective Edgar's low kicks are though.

You mentioned a couple really good points, that edgar defines himself with his movement and volume and that he will probably attempt a TD first. Also I totally agree about maynard not really setting up his TDs with strikes. I think he will fight exactly like vs Florian, rely on his accuracy and reach, land the cleaner shots and increase the pressure until Edgar starts to fatigue or become predictable and give maynard openings for TDs. In general I think Edgar will strike and takedown to get points and Maynard will just go in there and play a pressure boxing game while being more and more physical as the fight wears on to take control by damage and attrition. Because of the size advantage and Maynard's ability to time clean accurate and straight punches especially on a smaller guy, edge to Maynard.

[westerner]

They've fought once. I could see you saying this if he won 2 of 3... but they've both grown and adapted since then. I do agree that Maynard will win this fight though. But Edgar is a scrappy dude and if he can keep on his feet, I could easily see him getting the nod on the judges cards. That's the one thing that kills me when it comes to betting on MMA - the judges usually screw my night and cost me to drink heavily. BOL to all on Maynard!

They were both SUPER green when they fought too! Thats why for me this is one of the match ups I'm most excited for the future

[stefan084]

Usually in these rematches the person who won the first fight wins again.

very simple strategy that works--mma is all match-ups