[Vaughany]

WEC 51 is this Wednesday night and is an awesome card. odds are only out for Aldo and Varner fights so far. At the moment I'm contemplating a reasonably big play on Hominick if he's -150 or better. Also like Miguel Torres (surely he cant lose 3 on the bounce), Varner (but not at current +200 odds on paddypower), and Korean Zombie if -150 or better. Aldo is at -600 to -700 range, no value in that but he should win.


WEC 51 official fight card:

Main card
Featherweight Championship bout: Jose Aldo (c) vs. Manvel Gamburyan
Lightweight bout: Jamie Varner vs. Donald Cerrone
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Charlie Valencia
Featherweight bout: Chan Sung Jung vs. George Roop
Featherweight bout: Leonard Garcia vs. Mark Hominick

Preliminary Card
Lightweight bout: Zhang Tie Quan vs. Jason Reinhardt
Featherweight bout: Mike Brown vs Cole Province
Lightweight bout: Chris Horodecki vs. Ed Ratcliff
Featherweight bout: Tyler Toner vs. Diego Nunes
Bantamweight bout: Antonio Banuelos vs. Chad George
Bantamweight bout: Demetrious Johnson vs. Nick Pace

[sundin4prez]

depending on odds i like torres,brown,horodecki,varner and taking a flyer on gamburyan

[playa420]

im going with varner -175, i see this fight going pretty much the same as the first one

[Vaughany]

im going with varner -175, i see this fight going pretty much the same as the first one

I agree but Im loathe to bet on Varner outright when I'm 80% sure that he'll win a decision. If you can get Varner by decision at plus value I'd jump on that for sure.

[BobbyXxX]

does anyone think Gamburyan can catch aldo? i like varner too but yeah maybe too pricey

[Vaughany]

Hominick vs Jabouin...awesome fight...http://www.pancrase.org/mark-hominic...49/06-22-2010/

Hominick vs Caraway... http://www.pancrase.org/bryan-carawa...46/01-12-2010/

A day in the life of Hominick...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tA2IBPjUpCQ

[Vaughany]

Mark "The Machine" Hominick vs Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia

This fight has been labelled as being "gritty vs pretty", however I wouldn't label Hominick as just being 'pretty' with his technical striking, he is definitely very gritty as well. Hominick was 9 x TKO 145lb champion, IKF American kickboxing champion, ISKA Canadian champion, and was undefeated in the UFC with wins over Yves Edwards and Jorge Gurgel, being one of the only fighters to leave the UFC out of choice rather than from being dropped...Hominick felt he was better suited to the 145lbs division. Hominick is a blackbelt in Karate, a Judo (Sandam) black belt, ju-jitsu blackbelt, kick-boxing blackbelt and ninjutsu blackbelt first dan. Hominick has a dangerous left hook and especially his liver shot with the left hand is particular dangerous. He throws straight punches that should catch Garcia repeatedly with his wide open gung-ho style. Hominick has gd head movement but does tend to lower his hands at time, but his head movement and footwork is usually enough to avoid taking any power shots. If Garcia does tag him with one of his horrible wild punches I think Hominick has the chin to take it (as he showed in the Jabouin fight) and if he does get knocked down he has an underrated ground game...showed an active guard and swept Jabouin even after gettin rocked. Also showed good transitions in the Caraway fight from attempted sweep to triangle-arm bar. Im also not convinced that Garcia actually has KO power...he TKO'd Jens Pulver but even Joe Lauzon did that and let's face it Pulver has just been a submission dummy and punch bag for a while. I'm confident Hominick will win a decision (could even get a TKO or Sub but its unlikely as Garcia just loves to get hit and is a BJJ brown belt). Perhaps Hominick will then face the winner of Chad Mendes/Vasquez for No1 Contender spot and Garcia will have a re-match with Korean Zombie after he beats Roop.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Will keep my eye on Hominick - Garcia FOTN prop.

And I can't stand Varner, but see him taking that one unfortunately...

[The HOFF]

Hominick is money. I'll be on that too. Curious to see what it will open at.

[brooks85]

i cant imagine the line for hominick being -150 or around there. I remember i laughed when he called garcia out and thought to myself i hope they make this match. I like hominick big here.

[Fiasco01]

Horodecki vs 9MM should be ob the televised card!

[Shane]

This entire card could be televised. On paper, it looks like the card of the year. Sick fights.

[illmatick]

looking forward to seeing the Tyler Toner vs. Diego Nunes line.

also really like Hominick.

possible underdog value in roop and valencia

[Vaughany]

Will keep my eye on Hominick - Garcia FOTN prop.

And I can't stand Varner, but see him taking that one unfortunately...

Yep Varner is a bit of a douche but I think he has received a lot of unfair criticism for "pussying out" of the first fight! He defintely won every round of that fight in IMO and had no reason to pussy out. It was clear that he did get kneed in the face, wasnt as inocuous as the Daley knee on Koscheck for sure. Furthermore, I think Cerrone has developed in to an even bigger douche over the past few months...although I might just be a bit bitter because he's bangin Brittany Palmer!

[Vaughany]

Varner vs Cerrone II


Here's a write-up I did on Varner vs Cerrone on my thread a while ago...

Will be laying down a couple of units on Varner to beat Cerrone (again) and may have to create a Pinnacle account just so that I can get Varner at -165 (best available right now) rather than the -200 on paddypower. Varner has the wrestling and striking advantage in my opinion - and yes Cerrone has great Muay Thai and better leg kicks than Varner but the more leg kicks Cerrone throws the easier it will be for Varner to take him down. Check out Varner's boxing in this video of him sparring...toying with a pro-boxer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jR0TK...layer_embedded

Cerrone landed a few decent body strikes and a couple of punches, one takedown and one submission attempt at the end of round 2 but nothing significant. Varner on the other hand landed sumin like 7 out of 7 takedowns, numerous heavy overhand rights and hooks, a hard high left kick, and a guillotine choke attempt...and he'd broken his hand in the second round. Dont get me wrong, when I first watched tht fight I thought tht it was pretty even and also thought Varner was a whining douchebag for sayin he couldnt see! But after watchin the fight a couple more times and analysing it more deeply, its clear tht Varner was winning the fight and that he definitely got caught with that illegal knee. Here's the breakdown I did from when I watched the fight again the other day:


Round 1:
First round Varner tags Cerrone thn takes him down, Cerrone uses the rubber guard well but Varner picks him up and slamms him. Goes to the cage wer Cerrone has him in his rubber guard, Varner escapes and lands some brutal ground and pound. As Mir points out "Cerrone has one heck of a chin!" as he takes some hard bombs from Varner. Big welp noticeable on Cerrone's forehead. Cerrone redeems himself a bit by getting up and landing two knee strikes to Varner but neither hurt Varner significantly. Varner 10-9 at least

Round 2:
Cerrone land a leg kick to the sturdum but Varner counters it immediately and takes Cerrone down. Varner passes Cerrone's guard immediately and gets side contro however Cerrone quickly gets back full guard and then back to his feet. Cerrone throws some kicks tht Varner either dodges or blocks, Cerrone then starts gettin cocky, then another leg kick which Varner counters with single leg to double leg takedown. Varner lands 6 or 7 heavy shots. Cerrone does a great escape and back to their feet. Cerrone throws some combos that look nice but none land and Varner throws some heavy hooks and overhand rights tht dont land. 10 secs left in the round and Varner gets a semi-takedown/semi Cerrone pulling guard. Cerrone locks on a triangle with couple secs left. 10-9 Varner - based on three takedowns and heavy shots landed mid-way through round, despite late sub attempt from Cerrone.

Round 3:
More leg kicks from Cerrone, none of which are very effective, Varner tags Cerrone with 3 or 4 shots (2 of which are pretty big rushing into the cage) and then takes Cerrone down. Cerrone is now bleeding from his left eye as a result of previous shots. Varner locks in a guillotine choke (sub attempt) but Cerrone escapes and ends up on top. Varner gets up immediately with ease by wall-walking against the cage. Cerrone's face at this point is very busted up whilst Varner doesnt have a mark on him! Cerrone lands a jab to Varner's forehead but Varner counters with straigh right and straight left right on Cerrone's chin. Each land a couple of insignificant shots before Varner gets another easy takedown. Another 10-9 Varner at least

Round 4:
Start of round 4 and Varner lands an awesome left high leg kick to Cerrone after fainting with a combo. Some exchanges for a couple of minutes...Cerrone lands a couple of kicks to body, Varner lands one. Varner then takes Cerrone down again. Varner lands a couple of shots but Cerrone neutralises his attack well but doesnt attempt any submissions and eventually springs up. Varner quickly gets another takedown however. Another round to Varner for sure 10-9

Round 5:
Fighters begin round with a hug and Cerrone starts howling and wailing gettin hyped! Varner circles for a bit then shoots and gets yet another takedown. Cerrone is more aggressive off his back now, throws elbows and up kicks then flips back and gets back to his feet in impressive fashion. Interestingly, Cerrone goes for the takedown, and probably due to Varner not expecting it and being tired, Cerrone ends up on top. This is wer the controversial incident occurs! Varner wall-walks again with ease and as he's gettin up Varner grabs hold of Cerrone's knee about to attempt a double leg, but Cerrone throws the knee and catches Varner. The replay from behind the fence clearly shows tht Cerrone catches Varner on the side of his right eye. Varner is either an amazing actor or genuinely upset at this point, constantly apologising and even shaking his head wen the belt was put around him.

Whether Varner bitches out or not at this point is irrelevant. He had won rounds 1, 2, 3 and 4 and was probly even in Round 5 up until the illegal knee. 2 Judges scored it 49-46 whilst one retarded judge scored it 48-47 to Cerrone, even Cerrone looked confused wen it was read out! Also worth mentioning tht Varner had broken his hand earlier in the fight, second or third round. Maybe, the hand was hurting him more than the knee did and used his initiative to find an early way out of the fight knowing that he was easily ahead on the scorecard. On the flipside, one may argue why would he want to seek away out of the fight wen he knew he was winning and only had a couple minutes left. Who knows! At the end of the day tho, Varner won every round of tht fight.
Everyone hates on Varner, but Cerrone is actually the one who says that he 'takes his hat off to the guy' and they act like best mates, then as soon as they leave the cage Cerrone starts bitching on Varner in interviews.

Additionally, although Frank Mir is one of my favourite fighters, he was very bias to Cerrone during his commentary, constantly going on about how crisp and accurate his striking is and how good he is off his back whilst rarely talking about Varner! He mentions Varner's ground and pound at times but always immediately goes back to praising Cerrone's defence! I think this may play a part in how people saw tht fight as it gives the feeling tht Cerrone was being more effective than he actually was.

Anyway, thts my two cents on the fight!

[Vaughany]

i cant imagine the line for hominick being -150 or around there. I remember i laughed when he called garcia out and thought to myself i hope they make this match. I like hominick big here.

Yes in hindsight I might be being slightly optimistic to think that Hominick will come out at -150! More likely to be -200 unfortunately.

[LearningTree]

Looks like a good one

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Can't wait to watch Aldo fight again, If he rolls again they should move him to 155, in the UFC

[clarkd32]

hope also destroys mannyg... can't stand him.

torres needs a win bad!

[Vaughany]

Reinhardt has been told he cant fight because has contact lenses! So Pablo Garza (TUF 12) reject steps in against Tie Quan Zhang.

[Vrakas]

the lightweights are always fun to watch.

[Vaughany]

Any MMA fan who doesnt watch WEC is missing out bigtime...its consistently more exciting than UFC or Strikforce IMO. I cant remember the last time I saw a boring fight (a la Mir vs Cro Cop) in the WEC! Garcia/Korean Zombie, Cerrone/Varner I, Henderson/Cerrone I, Hominick/Jabouin, every Pettis fight, every Grispi fight have all been epic!

[BIGDAY]

Any MMA fan who doesnt watch WEC is missing out bigtime...its consistently more exciting than UFC or Strikforce IMO. I cant remember the last time I saw a boring fight (a la Mir vs Cro Cop) in the WEC! Garcia/Korean Zombie, Cerrone/Varner I, Henderson/Cerrone I, Hominick/Jabouin, every Pettis fight, every Grispi fight have all been epic!

Totally Agree! Always at the edge of my seat or standing at the bar!

[Poppa Catfish]

I agree as well, they put on the best events by far. There are so many memorable fights and finishes coming out of WEC; like Anthony Njokuani decapitation of Horodecki, Aldo's double flying knees on Cub, Hendo's come from behind guillotine etc etc

They got significantly better when they cut loose all the upper weight divisions. The lighter guys really do bring the fight.

[Vaughany]

Garcia and Hominick breakdown their fight...
http://www.mmabay.co.uk/2010/09/28/w...g-clash-video/

Hominick vs Kikuchi at Shootbox 2007...Hominick dominates from the second round, his head movement, footwork, propensity to go for the the liver shot with the left and overall awesome combos are evident in this fight and this was over 3 years ago!...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zep_...ext=1&index=12

Hominick doing pad work with former Pro-boxer Fitz Vanderpool...showing great hand speed...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljNSy...eature=related

[Vaughany]

Jesus why does it take so long for lines to come out for WEC! Its only two days away.

[illmatick]

Jesus why does it take so long for lines to come out for WEC! Its only two days away.

bunch of spineless bookmakers, that's why.

go to 5 dimes chat and complain, it worked for me last time.

[Vaughany]

bunch of spineless bookmakers, that's why.

go to 5 dimes chat and complain, it worked for me last time.

ha I would if I had a 5 dimes account! Although in hindsight I might be better off anyway if they release them really late as Paddypower usually doesnt bring them out till a couple of days after theyve come out on bookmaker, 5dimes, bodog, etc...If they come out tomorrow night then paddypower will only have 24 hrs to release them meaning less time for the line to drastically change for the worse on likes of Hominick if he comes out at -150 or something similar.

[brooks85]

they are out at bookmaker

[terpkeg]

Hominick +140

[terpkeg]

Roop +325 seem high to anyone?

[illmatick]

they are out at bookmaker

just had time to sneak a bet in on Hominick at +140...already up to -105

[Pratik]

oh man i just looked at bookmaker lots of heavy favorites for this event. Cant imagine the upsets but my mind tells me that theyre will only be a few and that everything on paper will be correct.

[The HOFF]

Lines moving like CRAZY. Best I could get Hominick was -150. I'm always on the computer about an hour too late for openers.

[The HOFF]