[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm ET
Alexander Volkanovski vs. “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung (for Featherweight title)
Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan (for Bantamweight title)
Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres

ESPN 8:00 pm ET
Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks
Raquel Pennington vs. Aspen Ladd
Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Marcin Tybura

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Aleksei Oleinik vs. Jared Vanderaa
Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott
Julio Arce vs. Daniel Santos
Mark Madsen vs. Vinc Pichel
Kay Hansen vs. Piera Rodriguez

[Thrilla]

Maycee Barber

[waynaholic]

Did anyone hear about PFL Challenger Series 7? It was prerecorded and some books had huge exposure due to having lines up even after results went final?

[Thrilla]

Did anyone hear about PFL Challenger Series 7? It was prerecorded and some books had huge exposure due to having lines up even after results went final?

lol ok wtf so that's the reason why.

I had planned to maybe cap those PFL fights. I looked at the starting time of the first fight, figured I had like 6 hours. Decided to return after an hour or so and suddenly no odds anywhere.

[waynaholic]

yea results were posted about 4 hours before first fight was scheduled to come off board....so maybe some books caught it but others didnt...i had no action but heard bout it...not sure what they gonna do with tickets tho...i guess the socials of PFL make it all seem live but they are not live whatsoever (at least this week) not sure about previous and future

[hankcream]

PFL has gone to total Shit. last year was fairly entertaining when it was on ESPN. Disney must have said “F off” this year. How are they going to be able to pay Petris & Kayla Harrison?

Hey Hugo, are going all in on your Russian Boy- Piotr Yan? I’m thinking Aljo pulls the upset & subs his ass. Let me know if you want to wager a few bet points

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups - MMA MANIA



170 lbs.: Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott

Mickey Gall (7-4) joined the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion after just a single professional fight, then showed that the confidence was warranted by submitting his first three Octagon opponents. He has since alternated losses and wins, including a decision defeat to Alex Morono in Dec. 2021.
He’ll enjoy one inch of height and reach on “Proper.”
A loss to Hakeem Dawodu and subsequent draw with Thomas Diagne kicked off a five-year stretch that saw Mike Malott (7-1-1) spend just 36 seconds in the cage. He made up for lost time in his return, however, dispatching unbeaten Solomon Renfro and Shimon Smotritsky in under three minutes combined.
All of his wins have come in two minutes or less.
This fight involves a lot more extrapolation than I’d like. Malott’s spent less than one round in the cage over the last six years. And he’s looked darn good in that brief span, sure, but I’m not exactly drowning in actionable information here.
I’m still going Malott’s way, though. Even with Gall’s wrestling and the fact that he hasn’t ever lost two straight, Malott’s quick hands look poised to control the striking and he’s a highly adept grappler in his own right. I’m going to look pretty stupid if his cardio winds up being garbage and Gall just grinds it out, but I say Malott takes more and more control of a stand up battle as Gall fades.
Prediction: Malott via unanimous decision
Related
‘I Would F—k Bruce Lee Up!’

135 lbs.: Julio Arce vs. Daniel Santos

Julio Arce (17-5) followed up his successful Contender Series appearance with victories in both of his first two Octagon appearances. He has since alternated losses and victories, including a knockout defeat to Song Yadong his last time out.
His 10 professional finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Daniel Santos (10-1) defeated his first eight professional foes before losing his first-ever decision to Murad Kalamov under the ACA banner. Future efforts proved more successful, as “Willycat” dispatched his next two opponents in a round each.
He fights for the first time since Dec. 2019.
This is a sleeper if I’ve ever seen one because Santos is pure dynamite in the cage and Arce is no stranger to high-intensity brawls. There are also a lot of uncertainties here, from Arce’s reaction to his first-ever knockout loss to Santos’ potential rust. It’s an amazingly volatile fight, but I have to give Arce the slightest edge.
Santos is just too easy to hit against a kickboxer this skilled, especially since he’s not as technical with his offense as other heavy hitters that have tripped up Arce before. While he could just smash Arce with either a haymaker or spinning technique, I like Arce to pick his shots and edge out a highly entertaining decision.
Prediction: Arce via unanimous decision
Related
Watch ‘Countdown To UFC 273’

155 lbs.: Vinc Pichel vs. Mark O. Madsen

The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15 alum, Vinc Pichel (14-2), had a rather ignominious UFC start courtesy of Rustam Khabilov suplexing him into oblivion in his debut. He’s now won seven of his last eight, the lone loss coming to Gregor GIllespie in 2018.
He’ll have two inches of height on “The Olympian.”
The Octagon debut for Mark Madsen (11-0) was everything the Danish crowd wanted, smashing Danilo Belluardo into submission just 72 seconds into the fight. He wasn’t quite as dominant his next two times out, but nonetheless emerged victorious against both Austin Hubbard and Clay Guida.
He has knocked out and submitted three professional foes apiece.
Though a solid win, Madsen’s fight with Guida showed how limited his game remains at 37 years old. His stand up comprises little more than naked low kicks, big single swings and a decent jab. It’s not enough to make his vaunted wrestling consistently effective at the highest level and it’s not enough to carry him past Pichel. That’s because “From Hell” gets stronger as fights progress, has better hands and offers the same sort of thudding low kicks that Guida used to great effect.
Pichel is admittedly a poor defensive wrestler. Indeed, his takedown defense sits at a deeply uninspiring 25 percent, which should give “The Olympian” hope. He is, however, very good at getting back to his feet, and Madsen’s neither adept from top position nor blessed with the gas tank for extended scrambles. In the end, Pichel drops the first round before overpowering a fading Madsen in the latter half.
Prediction: Pichel via unanimous decision
Related
UFC 273 Loses Another Fight

115 lbs.: Piera Rodriguez vs. Kay Hansen

Piera Rodriguez (7-0) burst onto the world stage by stopping the favored Svetlana Gotsyk in a successful bid for LFA gold. Her success continued on Contender Series, where she out-wrestled Valesca Machado to earn a UFC contract.
Five of her seven professional victories have come via knockout.
Kay Hansen (7-5) extended her win streak to three in her UFC debut, which saw her claim “Performance of the Night” with a triangle armbar finish of Jinh Yu Frey. She’s yet to find her second Octagon victory, dropping a highly questionable decision to Cory McKenna and a much less questionable decision to Jasmine Jasudavicius in successive efforts.
She is the shorter of the two by one inch.
Her record may not be pretty, but I think the 22-year-old Hansen still has plenty of promise. She definitely deserved the win against McKenna, at least, and has the style to give Rodriguez fits. It’ll be far easier for Hansen to get in on the square, flat-footed Rodriguez’s hips than it was against the towering Jasudavicius, meaning it’s practically inevitable that she’ll drag Rodriguez into her wheelhouse at some point.
Rodriguez does have legitimate punching power and will almost certainly win a stand up battle if she can get Hansen to brawl with her, but she’s doomed if Hansen leans on her wrestling. In short, Hansen dominates on the ground en route to wrapping up a submission.
Prediction: Hansen via second round submission




135 lbs.: Aspen Ladd vs. Raquel Pennington

Aspen Ladd (9-2) put her one-punch knockout loss to Germaine de Randamie behind her by pounding out Yana Kunitskaya for her third Octagon finish. Injuries and failed weight cuts then kept her out of action for nearly two years, after which she dropped a wide decision to Norma Dumont.
Her professional finishes are split 6/1 between knockouts and submissions
Raquel Pennington (13-8) battled her way to a title shot with four consecutive wins, only to fall short in three of her next four bouts. She got back on track with another three-fight streak, including a guillotine finish of Macy Chiasson her last time out.
“Rocky” will have one inch of height and 1.5 inches of reach on Ladd.
We saw the worst version of Ladd and the best version of Pennington in their most recent efforts. Ladd — who ordinarily fights like a bulldozer — was painfully tentative and ineffective against the basic offense of Dumont. Pennington, meanwhile, eschewed her usual approach of sleep-inducing clinchwork in favor of an aggressive, entertaining battle with the much larger Chiasson.
All things being equal, I would favor Ladd, as Pennington has never been a particularly potent defensive wrestler and Ladd can end things very quickly from top position. If the Pennington we saw against Chiasson shows up, though, she’s got all the tools to box up Ladd on the feet and hold her own in the clinch. I like her to match Ladd’s pace and unleash the cleaner offense to secure a clear decision.
Prediction: Pennington via unanimous decision
Related
UFC 273 Loses Another Fight

170 lbs.: Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks

Ian Garry (8-0) capped off his Cage Warriors tenure by beating Jack Grant for the vacant Welterweight title. He struggled early against Jordan Williams in his UFC debut, but closed the show with a vicious knockout in the waning seconds of the first round (watch highlights).
“The Future” stands four inches taller than Weeks and boasts a two-inch reach advantage.
After finishing each of his first five opponents inside of two rounds, Darian Weeks (5-1) signed on to face Josh Quinlan on Contender Series. When that fell through, he stepped up on short notice to face Bryan Barberena, who welcomed Weeks to the Octagon with a decision defeat.
He has knocked out three professional foes and submitted two others.
With all due respect to Barberena — who’s given us banger after banger during his Octagon tenure — failing to out-wrestle him is a huge red flag at this point in “Bam Bam’s” career. Weeks is far too limited to hold his own against Garry on the feet, and if his wrestling pedigree wasn’t sufficient to hold down Barberena, he’s very low on options here.
Garry did have a lot more trouble than I expected against Williams, but his long-range striking offense is far more potent than Weeks’ stand up. Even if Weeks does get in on his hips, Garry’s front chokes and scrambling skills make actually controlling him on the ground a pipe dream. In the end, he either finds Weeks’ neck or plunks him with strikes inside the first five minutes.
Prediction: Garry via first round technical knockout
Related
No Survivors

185 lbs.: Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd

Anthony Hernandez (8-2) initially struggled to find his footing in the Octagon, sandwiching a submission of Jun Yong Park between stoppage losses to Markus Perez and Kevin Holland. He came up huge with his back against the wall, however, surviving early trouble to choke out the legendary Rodolfo Vieira at UFC 258.
“Fluffy” has submitted six professional foes and knocked out one other.
Josh Fremd’s (9-2) three-fight, three knockout run in LFA came to a crashing halt when Gregory Rodrigues flattened him in a vacant title fight. Undaunted, he bounced back with wins over Renato Valente and Joel Bauman, the latter on Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight program.
He steps in for Dricus Du Plessis, who himself stepped in for Albert Duraev, on less than two weeks’ notice.
Though a solid fighter, Fremd is far less daunting an opponent for Hernandez than Duraev or Du Plessis. Hernandez has the power to exploit Fremd’s leaky defense and, judging by how well he fought back from adversity against Vieira, he’s not likely to break from Fremd’s steady pressure. Fremd does have a decent wrestling pedigree, but while Hernandez has struggled against strong grapplers in the past, I’m not convinced Fremd’s overall ground prowess can match that of Hernandez.
At the end of the day, Fremd leaves too many openings and Hernandez is too adept at exploiting those openings. Whether by clipping Fremd or bullying him into a reactive shot, Hernandez locks up a front choke in the early going.
Prediction: Hernandez via first round submission
Related
You Got A Fremd In Me

265 lbs.: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Marcin Tybura

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3) battered his way into Heavyweight contention with knockouts in each of his first four UFC bouts, among them a nine-second finish of Allen Crowder and an almost literally last-second stoppage of Alistair Overeem. “Bigi Boy” now sits at 2-3 in his last five appearances and was last seen dropping an uninspiring decision to Curtis Blaydes.
All but one of his professional victories have come by knockout.
Once stuck in the midst of a 1-4 skid, Marcin Tybura (22-7) returned to the thick of the Heavyweight elite by winning his next five fights. The momentum wasn’t enough to carry him past Alexander Volkov, who shut down his wrestling and out-classed him on the feet to earn a decision victory.
He stands one inch taller than Rozenstruik at 6’3.”
Between Rozenstruik’s ungodly power and Tybura’s history of knockout losses, which once saw him finished with strikes in three of four appearances, the knee-jerk response is to pick another knockout from “Bigi Boy.” Honestly, though, I think I have to go with “Tybur.” His last three victories came over heavy-handed, physically strong knockout artists, and each time he managed to weather their best shots and bring his ground game to bear. He’s not Blaydes, of course, but he’s still a sufficiently stout wrestler to overpower Rozenstruik on the mat like “Razor” and others have before.
While it’s just as likely that Rozenstruik melts him with a counter in the first minute, Tybura’s proven ability to drown heavier hitters with relentless wrestling has me leaning his way. It won’t be pretty, but he’ll grind out the overly-passive Rozenstruik.
Prediction: Tybura via unanimous decision

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Pretty fired up for this main card!

Need Yan and Khamzat to close out a couple of parlays

[JIBBBY]

Korean Zombie gonna get smoked in the main.

I don't see any of the heavy favorites on this card losing.

[Brandt Moat]

Been on the sidelines a bit. Was force betting some less then quality fights. This card has the goods. Going to keep riding Dern. (Don't I wish!) Torres has high volume. But, that leaves openings for McKenzie to take her down and work her on the ground. Parlaying the heavy favs. Love Arce, if the odds don't climb any higher. I am taking Burns in the co-main. Hype train is in full motion with Chimaev! The juicy odds make it an easy pick. I haven't seen many make the climb without a bump in the road. Burns' experience will prevail. Hope Yan destroys Sterling! GL Let's Go!

[Thrilla]

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Interested to see how Khamzat reacts if he faces some type of adversity or resistance.

[Kermit]

Pretty fired up for this main card!

Need Yan and Khamzat to close out a couple of parlays

Same. Need a finish by Kham to finish 2 parlays with NBA games.

[frankieunits2685]

Early weigh-ins.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Any thoughts on the Dern vs Torres bout?

I'm leaning Torres, thinking her speed and movement will be too much.

[GunShard]

Korean Zombie gonna get smoked in the main.

I don't see any of the heavy favorites on this card losing.

If you're right. I win my heavy favorites parlay.

[Brandt Moat]

I thought Torres' high output would be her demise. She throws to many low kicks with no set ups. Dern will take her down and control or finish her. Dern has improved her stand up and increased her power by bring her hips in the mix. Torres doesn't have much power. I am going with Dern. GL

Any thoughts on the Dern vs Torres bout?

I'm leaning Torres, thinking her speed and movement will be too much.

[Brandt Moat]

My main pick Arce. Missed weight. His bout is in limbo.

[Brandt Moat]

Just watched weigh-in. Arce if he does fight, had a terrible cut!! Won't put a dime on him.

[RussianMike]

I thought Torres' high output would be her demise. She throws to many low kicks with no set ups. Dern will take her down and control or finish her. Dern has improved her stand up and increased her power by bring her hips in the mix. Torres doesn't have much power. I am going with Dern. GL

Yup. Usually think the line seems artificially elevated towards Dern, back when she was getting a heavier UFC push, but that size advantage alone pretty much tells you what type of fight we are gonna see here. Looked like two different size classes at the weigh in.

[RussianMike]

Does anybody got word on the street regarding Korean Zombie's side-hustle? Is he fighting elsewhere, or driving Uber or Postmates? Guy seems to disappear for a year or two after every fight. Difficult to gauge any progression from him. Thought he delivered my Kung Pao the other day, but it was just a down and out Phillipino. Where is he fighting when not in the UFC?

[hankcream]

I think at least one of the big 3 dogs on top of the card is going to win and kill all of the Chimaev/Yan/Volkanowski parlays. I’ve got small plays on Aljo & Zombie.

[Brandt Moat]

Volkanovski looked pretty bad post weigh in. The way they are pumping Chimaev. I'm liking Burns even more. This line is crazy. If he dust Gilbert, he will be the next Jon Jones of the UFC. Not the doping idiot part! The dominate force part.

[JIBBBY]

If you're right. I win my heavy favorites parlay.

Good luck with that Gunny. I think it lands but then again anything can happen in UFC fights..

[Thor4140]

Interested to see how Khamzat reacts if he faces some type of adversity or resistance.

That pretty much sums it up and it is what everyone wants to see. He either gets arm barred or just knocks burns out. I see him just blasting him.

[Thor4140]

I think at least one of the big 3 dogs on top of the card is going to win and kill all of the Chimaev/Yan/Volkanowski parlays. I’ve got small plays on Aljo & Zombie.

Who is it gonna be Hank. I think it is going to be sterling if anyone. He was doing well till he gassed last fight. Well as in holding his own. With his solid corner they have to have worked on that. The guy is crafty. People are acting like he beat nobody on his way to the title. Yan getting a little full of himself. Sterling a dog for a reason tho. How many time tho do we see two big fav hit than the last fight a complete upset nobody saw coming. Ill be there for this one. It was a great card but now three of the fight i wanted to see are gone.

[RussianMike]

Who is it gonna be Hank. I think it is going to be sterling if anyone. He was doing well till he gassed last fight. Well as in holding his own. With his solid corner they have to have worked on that. The guy is crafty. People are acting like he beat nobody on his way to the title. Yan getting a little full of himself. Sterling a dog for a reason tho. How many time tho do we see two big fav hit than the last fight a complete upset nobody saw coming. Ill be there for this one. It was a great card but now three of the fight i wanted to see are gone.

Sterling worth a flier at those odds, but the value for an upset is on Burns fosho. Simply put, dominating easier opponents just doesn't give us any real info on a fighter, and that is one giant step up in competition.

[Demonata]

Good luck on your bets guys.

[JIBBBY]

Good luck on your bets guys.

Dem you are a good man! You betting this event?

[rake922]

[209 Life]

Gall got caught and slumped

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Looks like a good card

[UncleChael]

Where is everyone? On Torres for the record.

[209 Life]

Cub Swanson vs do ho Choi fight from UFC 206 in 2016 going to HOF. What a fight.

[209 Life]

Dern gets the decision. I don't think she won