[Hman]

Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson

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After some last-minute matchmaking, we finally have a confirmed main event for this week's UFC card, and the fighters have agreed to move up a weight class to make the short notice more realistic. Two top 10 women's strawweights will move up to flyweight, hopefully making extreme weight cuts less of a risk in the booking.


But there's no shortage of familiar faces already booked and ready for the event, and we'll see some value there.


Prelims start at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and the main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.


Odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

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Women's flyweight main event: Marina Rodriguez (-210) vs. Michelle Waterson (+175)


Tale Of The Tape

	MICHELLE WATERSON	MARINA RODRIGUEZ
Last fight weight class	Women's strawweight	Women's strawweight
Age	35	34
Height	63	66
Reach	62	65
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Analyzed minutes	150	81
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)	0:1	2:0
Distance knockdown rate	0.0%	2.3%
Head jab accuracy	20%	16%
Head power accuracy	33%	26%
Total stand-up strike ratio	0.9	1.6
Striking defense
Total head strike defense	68%	77%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")	99%	100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch	0.44	0.09
Takedown accuracy	31%	20%
Advances per takedown/top control	1.3	0.0
Opponent takedown attempts	25	27
Takedown defense	68%	59%
Share of total ground time in control	58%	13%
Submission attempts per trip to ground	0.39	0.08

She may be nicknamed the "Karate Hottie," but winning with standup striking is not always the best game plan for Waterson. She actually has three times more submission victories than wins by strikes (nine versus three), and her matchup this week carries a lot of risk if it stays on the feet.


That's because the higher-ranked contender, Rodriguez, is more of a striking threat, with a base in Muay Thai that could pressure the karate style of Waterson in the small cage. Though Waterson is more accurate, she lacks power and a pace high enough to win rounds against a striker. We'll certainly see a lot of kicks, as both women mix in a disproportionately high share of body and leg kicks. But only Rodriguez has managed to score a distance knockdown with her power, and she has managed to outwork opponents while doing so.


That's if it stays standing. Rodriguez rarely attempts takedowns, so she's unlikely to initiate grappling. However, Waterson attempts a healthy pace, and the takedown defense of Rodriguez has been average. She's actually winless in fights where she has been taken down more than once, though that only includes one loss and two draws. Still, if Waterson gets it to the floor, she averages 1.5 minutes of control time once there. That's usually enough to sway an otherwise close round, which she needs to do at least three times while surviving the rest of the fight standing.


It's a tricky one, and the late notice should also bring some uncertainty. But Waterson has a path to victory, as well as five-round experience if it goes to deeper waters.


E+ recommends: Underdog or pass. Assuming Waterson looks on point at weigh-ins and her return is +150 or better, she's worth a small value play.

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Best bets elsewhere on the card

A showdown between ranked lightweights features Diego Carlos Ferreira and Gregor Gillespie, and it's a fight that is likely to hit the mat. Gillespie is the most dominant wrestler on the card, spending 54% of all fight time on the ground controlling his opponents, a metric even higher than that of the lightweight GOAT, Khabib Nurmagomedov (41%). He shoots for takedowns at a relentless pace and has never been put on his back.


That will contrast with the excellent jiu-jitsu of Ferreira, who has plenty of submissions to his credit and certainly doesn't shy from a grappling match. But with takedown defense that is only slightly better than average and a willingness to spend time on his back, Ferreira's usual strength could work against him against someone who knows how to control position. Mix in the fact that Gillespie's striking metrics are slightly better, and we have a situation where we're willing to back the favorite as long as prices stay reasonable.




E+ recommends: Money line play on Gillespie anywhere around -200 or better.


Speaking of grappling contests, we hope to see one in the main card opener between Amanda Ribas (-175) and Angela Hill (+150). With dual black belts in BJJ and Judo, Ribas excels at controlling opponents on the ground, as well as securing submissions. Hill, a Muay Thai striker who prefers to stand and trade, will be in a bad spot if she can't defend the takedowns. At 31%, Ribas ranked second on the card behind Gillespie for the highest share of total fight time spent controlling opponents on the mat.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Ribas. Early action has pushed her price below 2-to-1 favorite territory, where it's now playable.

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