Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Fight Island is in full swing, and this Saturday's card marks the midpoint between two big pay-per-views in Abu Dhabi. The winner of this week's main event will enter a small but tangled bantamweight title picture behind current champion Petr Yan.


Depending on whether Henry Cejudo stays retired or Aljamain Sterling gets a near-term shot, either Marlon Moraes or Cory Sandhagen will have something to say about who's next if they earn a post-fight victory speech.


Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday.
Main event: Marlon Moraes (+120) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-140)


Tale Of The Tape

MARLON MORAES CORY SANDHAGEN
Last fight weight class Bantamweight Bantamweight
Age 32 28
Height 66 71
Reach 66.5 71
Stance Orthodox Switch
Analyzed minutes 65 48
Stand-up striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 4:1 2:0
Distance knockdown rate 4.2% 3.6%
Head jab accuracy 21% 27%
Head power accuracy 32% 42%
Total stand-up strike ratio 1.1 1.2
Striking defense
Total head strike defense 70% 70%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.13 0.22
Takedown accuracy 25% 50%
Advances per takedown/top control 1.5 0.8
Opponent takedown attempts 9 11
Takedown defense 67% 27%
Share of total ground time in control 46% 75%
Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.40 0.17
Moraes (No. 2 in ESPN's men's bantamweight rankings) opened as a +110 underdog. The early action was heavily on Sandhagen (No. 6) despite a recent loss, pushing him to a -175 favorite, with Moraes topping out at +155. Since last weekend, as the market has evolved further, the odds have reverted to near the original split.


We can see why the market is leaning toward Sandhagen. He's younger but has already faced some of the same opponents as Moraes. Sandhagen has a much rangier frame with a switch stance, which could present Moraes with physical challenges that are rare in this division.


While standing, Sandhagen has a big edge in accuracy. Combined with the long reach differential and a pace of activity that is nearly double that of Moraes', Sandhagen should have the advantage in round-to-round striking. However, should Moraes get close and find his target, he's the more powerful striker on a per strike basis.


On the ground, Sandhagen again has the edge in activity and control, while Moraes is likely the bigger finishing threat, with better grappling credentials.


Wherever this fight goes, it feels like Sandhagen by scores or Moraes by a finish. At the current odds, and in this division, that makes it nearly a coin flip.


E+ recommends: Pass at current odds. Should the odds get further apart, I'd consider a small bet on a Moraes upset. I'd consider Sandhagen only at even or better.
Best bets elsewhere on the card

The co-main event could be a fun scrap between two featherweights outside the bubble, both in need of a rebound. Edson Barboza (-270) has long been a contender at lightweight and just recently moved to featherweight. That makes us pause when the numbers see value on Makwan Amirkhani (+220).




Barboza has faced more elite talent but primarily at a heavier weight class. Amirkhani has upset potential as a slick finisher, but if he's truly outclassed and outsized, Barboza should cruise to a striking finish. That means finishing potential on both sides.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Amirkhani


The only other veteran pairing on this card is between heavyweights Ben Rothwell (-160) and Marcin Tybura (+135). As with the fights discussed above, this is a small underdog or pass situation. The ingredients for a Rothwell KO are clearly there, but Tybura has been able to use more dominant ground control, which could stifle (and exhaust) Rothwell's biggest weapon.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Tybura