UFC 253 main event breakdown: Can Israel Adesanya overcome Paulo Costa's power at Fight Island?

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It doesn't happen often, but the main event of UFC 253 features two undefeated fighters, in their primes, ready to further establish a legacy. Israel Adesanya (19-0) and Paulo Costa (13-0) will headline the first card back on Fight Island, in a middleweight title bout that has all the makings of a Fight of the Year contender. In addition to two fighting styles that are sure to create action, the bad blood between Adesanya and Costa makes this bout even more intriguing.


Adesanya's rise in the sport has come quickly. The former kickboxer arrived in the UFC in early 2018 and through unique walkouts and flashy fighting, he has taken over. He has beat icons (Anderson Silva), champions (Robert Whittaker) and most recently, one of the most intimidating fighters to ever step into the Octagon (Yoel Romero). His fight for the interim middleweight title against Kelvin Gastelum in April 2019 earned Fight of the Year honors. This will be Adesanya's second title defense and many are wondering if he'll showcase more offense than he did against Romero.


The reality is that Costa is a different fighter than Romero and is likely to take the fight right to Adesanya. Costa is a striker and has finished four of his five UFC opponents by the middle of the second round. His fifth opponent, Romero, resulted in a unanimous decision win. Costa is a fighter with tremendous power, and if he connects, he will put Adesanya's chin to the test.


This fight would have happened sooner, but a biceps injury in October sidelined Costa.


ESPN MMA analyst Gilbert Melendez examines the middleweight title bout and what each fighter must do to leave the Octagon as the winner with the gold.


The big picture

Paulo Costa is the man of steel. He's a strong guy who knows how to absorb punishment, but just how much punishment can Costa endure on the way in as he attempts to close the distance?


Adesanya is an accurate striker, a true talent at landing big counter shots right on the money. He has great long knees, kicks and straights, but if the fight tempo doesn't go his way, Costa is going to come forward and keep pushing, bringing the fight to Adesanya with pressure on the cage. How much punishment can Adesanya endure against a top striker? Will Adesanya be able to keep Costa out of range and pick him apart?


These two are going to get into many toe-to-toe exchanges, and we're going to really see Adesanya's defense tested. Whoever can control the range and distance of this fight will have a clear advantage.


What Adesanya will we get? The one that fought Romero or Gastelum?

I think we're going to see an action-packed Adesanya fight. It takes two to tango, so if we're going to put Adesanya down for his fight against Romero, then Romero needs to own some part of that as well. The reason why we saw a fantastic Adesanya fight against Gastelum is that Gaestelum had some part of that, too. The same can be said about the Silva fight.


Costa is going to come to fight, so yes, we're going to see Adesanya using his counter skills. We're going to see him use his kicks, knees, elbows and long punches. He's going to be forced to stand toe-to-toe with Costa, and he's going to have to slip, dip and move -- not just with his legs, but pulling out and slipping in, ducking and countering in the way we saw against Gastelum. He's going to go through another great battle, and the wear and tear adds up, so we'll see how he handles that as the fight progresses.


Now, the action fight also causes a problem for Adesanya in this case. Costa throws heavy punches that knock people out, and he'll have an advantage in these forehead-to-forehead exchanges. It's going to be challenging for Costa to get up close, but in every fight he manages to get there, even against Romero as he held him against the cage.


Good won't be enough for Adesanya on Saturday. He needs to be spectacular, amazing and in the matrix if he wants to dodge all these punches in the pocket.


How does Adesanya win?

He needs to be a sniper. He needs to land strikes right on the money, and it is extremely important that he follows them up. If Costa is at all rattled, swarm him, have that killer instinct that will end the fight. We've seen Costa wobbled, so Adesanya should have those chances.


Of the two, Adesanya is the more technical, elusive and calculated striker, but he can't pick Costa off with one punch at a time. That's not going to be enough. He needs to follow in these exchanges, and needs to capitalize on the opportunities.


Adesanya should be the mobile, elusive fighter in the first few rounds, trying to cut off Costa as he tries to engage. Recognizing times when Adesanya needs to get out of exchanges will be equally important, especially when he knows he hasn't done enough damage. Know when to regroup and be ready for the next flurry.


How does Costa win?

Returning from his injury, Costa is going to be fresh. He hasn't been super active in the UFC, but every time he has been in there he looked strong and ready. You can't knock his preparation.


Costa should press forward against Adesanya. He is a pressure fighter, but he also has fantastic head movement as he pushes forward and essentially asks for strikes. He wants to stay in the pocket, catch these punches and get a feel of his opponent's rhythm and timing.


He's going to walk Adesanya down, corner him off, look for these exchanges, make Adesanya throw, slip and block, get that timing and look to land one big shot. He'll keep pressing forward because once he has Adesanya against the cage he's going to let his hands go.


It's hard to comment on Costa's ground game because we really haven't seen it, but at this level, everyone has a great ground game. Adesanya showed against Gastelum that he can pop up, so no matter what it won't be easy.


Going to the ground is definitely an option for Costa, especially as he presses Adesanya against the cage. While Adesanya is occupied with the hands, he can drop low against the cage and bring it to the ground. He'd put that pressure on riding Adesanya to keep him on the ground, working toward a submission. I could imagine that he has an action-packed grappling style.





I think generally Costa needs to focus on taking minimum damage in the pocket and pressuring him against the cage. He's going to try to land his big punches and combinations that wear the champion down and overwhelm him.
The X factors

Costa: The conditioning in the late rounds. He pushes a high pace, and I'm wondering if this goes to the championship rounds if he can continue to keep that pace and strike with the same type of power.


Adesanya: His follow-ups after landing a good counter. Adesanya can't settle for one strike at a time. He needs to swarm with long combinations when the time is right.
Prediction

I predict the upset. Costa is a very intelligent terminator who pushes forward, catches punches and absorbs them well. He's willing to roll the dice to eat a punch, and I think that will pay off for him even despite Adesanya's strong counters. Costa is going to try to overwhelm Adesanya in the pocket, and if he can dodge the strikes on the way in, he's going to have success against the cage and get the job done.