Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens


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As the UFC international tour continues, we head to Mexico on Saturday for a pairing of two featherweights, each trying to gain some momentum to enter the title picture.


It's hard to follow up last week's main event pairing of Justin Gaethje and Cowboy Cerrone, but sometimes sequels can still be good. Again, we have a main event of two aggressive fighters who have racked up bonuses at a prodigious rate.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Sept. 18.
Featherweight matchup: No. 7 Yair Rodriguez (-105) vs. No. 8 Jeremy Stephens (-115)


Tale Of The Tape

JEREMY STEPHENS YAIR RODRIGUEZ
Last Fight Weight Class Featherweight Featherweight
Current Age 33 26
Height 69.0 71.0
Reach 71.0 71.0
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Analyzed Minutes 365 118
Standup striking offense
Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 18:4 3:0
Distance Knockdown Rate 6.4% 2.6%
Head Jab Accuracy 24% 30%
Head Power Accuracy 24% 25%
Total Standup Strike Ratio 1.1 1.3
Striking defense
Total Head Strike Defense 72% 69%
Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 98% 100%
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.28 0.28
Takedown Accuracy 36% 33%
Advances per Takedown/Top Control 0.3 0.9
Opponent Takedown Attempts 107 29
Takedown Defense 64% 69%
Share of Total Ground Time in Control 47% 27%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.15 0.47
It's a very close pairing on the stat line, but with a few key differences. First, it's worth pointing out that each man attempts a below-average rate of takedowns and lands with below-average success. That should mean that they will test their hands against each other for the majority of the fight.


Focusing on the striking metrics, we see similar accuracy and defense. The most notable differences are the higher pace of Rodriguez and the greater power of Stephens. It's hard to extrapolate which will become the difference-maker in the fight, but this does explain why prop markets currently price Stephens as more likely to get a stoppage and Rodriguez more likely to win a decision.


The wild card is the fight's location. Rodriguez will get to fight in front of his national crowd and also compete at high altitude -- something he should handle, given his upbringing at a similar elevation. But as was reported this week, Stephens will spend the final six weeks of his training camp in Mexico City to condition his body for the low-pressure environment. We should see a physically competitive fight, even if the crowd will have a clear bias.


E+ recommends: Moneyline lean on Stephens if at pick 'em or better, otherwise pass.
Other fight card value


The co-main event pits the former women's strawweight champion Carla Esparza against Alexa Grasso. Esparza's wrestling-centric game stifles plenty of opponents; except when it doesn't. In fights where she can't control position, she's been outstruck handily. Grasso comes from a boxing base and brings the cardio of a younger fighter who grew up at high elevation in Mexico. As long as she spends a round or less on her back, she should outbox the former champ.


E+ recommends: Moneyline play on Grasso. The over 2.5 rounds, or fight goes to decision.