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Best bets for Terence Crawford vs. Amir Khan 🥊
Best bets for Terence Crawford vs. Amir Khan
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Terence "Bud" Crawford (34-0 25 KOs), one of boxing's best pound-for-pound fighters, puts his WBO welterweight title on the line against former unified junior welterweight champion Amir "King" Khan (33-4 20 KOs) on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York (ESPN PPV, 9 p.m. ET.)
Here's a look at where the money is going from Vegas bookmakers, opinions from boxing experts, boxers and trainers, and my prediction for the fight.
Where is the money going?
Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's VP of risk management, opened the fight with Crawford -1100 and Khan +700 in February.
"We took some early action on Crawford at -1100 and it has been steady since then on him, so we moved to -2000/+1000. Tickets are 63 percent on Crawford and money wagered is 95 percent on Crawford," said Sherman.
Sherman opened the total round prop at 9.5 rounds under -160 and over +140. The SuperBook got action on the under and moved the line to under to -180 and over +150.
Crawford-Khan Odds
FIGHTERS OPENING ODDS ODDS AS OF APRIL 17 Crawford -1100 -2000 Khan +700 +1000 Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
At William Hill US, assistant director of trading, Adam Pullen, also opened the fight in February with Crawford -1100 and Khan +700.
"We are now at -1800/+1000 with tickets 9-1 in favor of Khan, but money wagered is a tad high on Crawford," said Pullen. "Also, Crawford is the last leg of some large, large boxing parlays. So, come fight time, we will need the dog -- Khan."
Pullen opened the total rounds prop at 9.5 under -160 and over +140. Based on money wagered on the under, William Hill US is now at -200/+175.
Experts weigh in
- Michael Mohan (boxing sharp): Crawford stops Khan most likely in the second half of the fight. Khan will start fast and Crawford will be patient.
- Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): This fight will start off with Khan using his speed and jab to land combinations while Crawford figures out his timing. Right around the fourth round, look for Crawford to land his big shots from the southpaw stance. While Khan is slowing down and Crawford is gaining momentum, it will lead to a Crawford stoppage of Khan around the eighth round.
- Lou DiBella (President DiBella Entertainment): Crawford by unanimous decision or late round stoppage.
- Jamel "Semper Fi" Herring (featherweight fighter): It's a better matchup than what most are giving credit. Most people can't ever say Khan was ever in a dull fight. We can criticize him about his defeats, but even those fights were entertaining until they ended. I think Khan will be a challenge early on against Crawford, due to his hand speed, rhythm, and punch output, but once "Bud" gets his timing down, he'll start breaking him down, round by round. Some say it'll be an early night, but I have Khan being competitive, at least for the first 4-5 rounds before [Crawford's] dominance starts to take toll. If "Bud" gets a stoppage, it may come in the 10th or 11th round.
- Luke Chapman (boxing sharp): A fun fight -- while it lasts. Amir Khan, "all gas, no brake" versus the patient, calculating Terence Crawford. I find it hard to find value in these fights with a super short-priced favorite but with Khan pressing I see Crawford finishing this earlier than usual. Something on Crawford 4-6 +300.
- John "Iceman" Scully (boxing trainer): I anticipate that Khan is going to give him some big trouble early on and Terrence is going to have to step it up a bit to get to where he wants to be in this fight. But he will eventually do so and come through with a convincing decision, if not a later-rounds knockout.
- Rich Marotta (Hall of Fame sportscaster): I think we're in for a treat. The Crawford-Khan fight will be a high-level, mostly technical battle of skills. Both fighters will be probing early and things should start heating up by the third round. I expect some crisp exchanges to ensue from that point on, and wouldn't be at all surprised to see this an even fight at the midway point. However, the more varied and nuanced attack of Crawford will then take hold. In the later rounds he will hurt Amir and maybe even drop him. In the end, "Bud" wins by decision.
- Cynthia Conte (Ring TV boxing correspondent): Accuracy and timing will always beat speed. Khan is known for his speed and technique and shows he can box. But his careless aggression opens him up to vulnerability. Crawford will adjust to Khan's speed and expose his bad habits mid-rounds, throw some power punches and catch him on the chin. Crawford KO7.
- Evan Young (boxing sharp): Khan has attributes such as lightning quick hands, amateur pedigree etc., that would suggest that he has a chance in this fight. But his history, poor response to clean punches and a recklessness that weakens his natural speed advantage leads me to the conclusion that Crawford will prevail -- in style. Crawford by stoppage between 8-10 rounds.
- Percy Crawford (boxing sharp): It's all in the last name (laughing). Crawford dominates Khan and stops him in 7. This is a fight where I think Khan will prove to be too tough for his own good.
- Michelle Joy Phelps (Founder Behind the Gloves podcast): Amir Khan posses skill and speed which can trouble anyone. But I feel like since the devastating knockout by Canelo Alvarez in 2016 and his nearly two-year layoff from boxing, it may have been the turning point for a talent like Khan. Since returning to welterweight, he hasn't impressed. Granted, he is allowed a tune-up fight or two. And yes, he was highly criticized for the Vargas fight, but he needed those rounds to shake off the ring rust. I do think Khan isn't given enough credit though. He's not a nobody and has always had the guts to challenge the big boys, which isn't something all fighters can brag about. But he spent so much time chasing the big names like [Floyd] Mayweather and [Manny] Pacquiao, he may have hurt his own career due to his inactivity. Khan will have to pull off the perfect fight to win. Which means going 12 rounds avoiding everything Crawford throws at him.
- Jim Karas (boxing sharp): Khan is back with defensive-minded trainer Virgil Hunter, and Crawford is known to take his time before cerebrally picking apart his opponents, so I expect this fight to go some rounds. Out of Crawford's nine stoppage wins in 12-round fights, six of them have come in the eighth round or later. I'm looking at the Total Rounds as my approach to wagering on this fight. The Total Rounds is 9.5, but hopefully your book also offers alternate Round Totals, as I see value in many of them. I will be backing over 6.5 rds (-163), over 7.5 rds (-120), over 8.5 rds (+125), and over 9.5 rds (+175), with a piece of Crawford by decision at (+400).
- Matt Andrzejewski (boxing sharp): There is no disputing the natural talents of Khan. He has elite-level hand speed, and that alone can cause issues for anyone he faces inside the ring, including Crawford. But for all his talents, Khan has one glaring weakness, and that is his chin. I see Khan's hand speed giving Crawford some issues early, but as the fight progresses Crawford makes the necessary adjustments to begin to take over the fight. And before the end of Round 6, Crawford will have found a way to land something hard enough that will put Khan out.
Face to face
Crawford: Crawford, 31, hails from Omaha, Nebraska and is ranked No. 2 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings. "Bud" has held multiple world titles in three weight classes. He is currently the WBO welterweight champion since 2018 (he won the belt by defeating Jeff Horn via ninth-round TKO), the WBO, Ring magazine and lineal lightweight titles and the unified WBA (Super), WBC, IBF, WBO, junior welterweight titles. "Bud" is a relentless fighter, and to even think about defeating him, you would be hard pressed to find something he doesn't do exceptionally well in the ring.
Khan: The 32-year-old Lancashire, England native is a 13-year pro and the former WBA and IBF world champion at 140 pounds. He won the WBA title in July, 2009 over Andre Kotelink in a 12-round unanimous decision and made five successful title defenses. He then added the IBF title in his fifth title defense and a unification bout in July, 2011 that elevated him to the WBA "super" champion. He possesses some of the fastest hands in boxing, and is a very good boxer. His only shortcoming as a fighter is his chin, as he has been stopped in three of his four losses and has been rocked numerous times throughout his career. His fights usually lead to much excitement and this should be no different against Crawford.
Betting the fight
Not shockingly, everyone is on "Bud" Crawford to win this fight. With the price being so high, you have to look at prop bets and totals which are mentioned above. I am going with the over 9.5 round +160 or better. Khan will have to be careful, but with Hunter in his corner and this being possibly his last go in a major fight, I think we get a very gritty and determined Khan.
Pick: Over 9.5 round +160 or better.
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Originally Posted by ApricotSinner32
