[Thrilla]

Junior dos Santos Believes Ben Rothwell Fight Is Do or Die Moment

- dos Santos is impressed by Rothwell's win-streak, has respect for opponent.

[JoshKnows46]

Get ready boys, lines about to come out for the rest of this card, on 5 dimes within the next half hour.

[JoshKnows46]

Lines dropped on 5 dimes, maxed these out so far...
Christine Stancui +180 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

[Ty$]

Lines dropped on 5 dimes, maxed these out so far...
Christine Stancui +180 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

Why so high on Stancui? Moroz is super tough only loss to letourneau.. Very risky pick

[JIBBBY]

Yep lines are out.. No props out though..

[JIBBBY]

I was thinking Taismunov by KO because he's been knocking people out of the box lately... No props yet..So next best thing is both these guys are finishers so the U2.5 looks good to go.... Both seldomly go to decision. At + odds this seems like a good bet to me.. I just hit this for a Benny...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mairbek-Taisumov-33161

$100.00

$140.00

Pending

4/10/16 1:00pm UFC Fighting 1701 Damir Hadzovic/Mairbek Taisumov Under 2½ +140*

[JoshKnows46]

Why so high on Stancui? Moroz is super tough only loss to letourneau.. Very risky pick

not very high on her, she'll be a 2 unit bet, nearly every bet on the card is a risk, its a bad card for pre betting, but i capped stancui as a slight favorite, +180 opener was a steal, i understand moroz has the hype behind her, but that's why we got the opener we did, stancui fights like a female wanderlie silva, she has the takedown defense to keep this standing, moroz has soft punches and her style on stand-up isn't appealing to the judges, while stancui's constant aggression will be the deciding factor. i feel stancui can win by dec or by ko, and i had her set at -135....

[JoshKnows46]

9 units invested in Rothwell, 5.3 Units on Taisumov, 4 Units on Ngannou, and 2 units on Stancui.. i'll have a few marginal unit prop plays when they get released....For those that love betting every fight, i'd advise to take it easy with this card, beside the 4 guys and gal i bet here, the rest of the card is coin flip hell, some unpredictable shit, save some money for the next few cards coming up, we gonna make a killin.... the live betting action should be fantastic, btw this card starts early morning around 8:30 or 9:30.

My Full Card:
Ben Rothwell -110 Risking $1100
Ben Rothwell itd +132 Risking $250
Ben Rothwell by sub +500 Risking $100
Rothwell scorecards = no action -120 $600
Rothwell scorecards =no action -131 $350
Rothwell wins in round 2 +525 $100
Rothwell wins in round 3 +875 $100

Christine Stancui +180 $250
Christine Stancui +155 $250
Christine Stancui +160 $100

Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou -120 $300
Francis Zavier Ngannou -125 $312.5
Francis Zavier Ngannou -130 $325

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

Mairbek Taisumov -310 $310 to win $100

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -290
NOT Dos Santos Inside the distance -176
$500 to win $554.47

[JIBBBY]

^^Where the hell did you get Rothwell ITD at +132? If that's true that impressive line shopping and I'd like to join that book.. I searched all my books and most don't even have props out yet on this fight....

I hit that Roth ITD at +121 a week ago on 5D and it's now down to +110..

$200.00

$242.00

Pending

4/10/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Rothwell wins inside distance +121* vs Not Rothwell inside distance

[lokihayze]

Rothwell is still the underdog on my books, is that the same for you boys?

[JIBBBY]

Rothwell is still the underdog on my books, is that the same for you boys?

http://oddsb.com/

[JIBBBY]

(Copy and Paste) Prelims.. This dude has a pretty solid prediction record so I find his write ups to be solid for the most part..

UFC Fight Night 86 predictions: Zagreb FOX Sports 1 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2

By Patrick L. Stumberg on Apr 5, 2016, 10:00p 3

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports








170 lbs.: Nicolas Dalby vs. Zak Cummings

Sweden’s Nicolas Dalby (14-0-1) has been nothing but entertaining in his two-fight UFC career, beginning with a gritty split decision over Brazilian knockout artist Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. In October, he threw down with top British prospect Darren Till and battled through a knockdown to force a draw and earn Fight of the Night in the process.
"Sharpshooter" has knocked out four opponents and submitted another three.
Zak Cummings' (18-4) run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 17 came to an end in the Round of 16 with a decision loss to Dylan Andrews. He’s gone 3-1 in UFC itself, including an upset decision over Yan Cabral and 43-second knockout of Dominique Steele in July 2015.
He replaces the injured Bartosz Fabinski on one month’s notice.
In many ways, Dalby reminds me of Martin Kampmann. He’s capable on the feet, but doesn’t have much stopping power and can struggle with bigger hitters. One thing he lacks that Kampmann relied heavily on, however, is a powerful offensive and defensive wrestling game.
Hence the reason I’m picking Cummings.
Cummings is huge for the weight class and is a very capable grappler when not dealing with beasts like Gunnar Nelson. Expect him to edge a decision through effective top control.
Prediction: Cummings via unanimous decision

155 lbs.: Mairbek Taisumov vs. Damir Hadzovic

Mairbek Taisumov's (24-5) one-sided loss to Michel Prazeres in 2014 has given way to three straight knockouts, his head kick finish of Alan Patrick in May 2015 earning him "Performance of the Night." "Beckan" was set to take a step up against Beneil Dariush in January, only for Darush to suffer an injury and Taisumov to run into **** issues.
He has just one decision victory in nine years as a professional.
Damir Hadzovic (10-2) has won six straight since a 2012 loss to current UFC middleweight Krzysztof Jotko, four of them via stoppage. Training alongside Nicolas Dalby, Hadzovic has stopped eight opponents overall with five knockouts.
"The Bosnian Bomber" stands three inches taller than Taisumov at 6’0."
I picked Taisumov to beat Dariush and Wade, so no prize for guessing what I think of Hadzovic’s chances. The Bosnian is a decent, slow-starting striker, but lacks Taisumov’s speed, power, and kicking prowess. "Beckan" will also have a considerable edge in wrestling and can do major damage from top position.
To win this fight, Hadzovic would have to keep Taisumov at range and try to exhaust him. Taisumov just hits too damn hard for that to work, unfortunately. The Chechen chews him up with kicks before putting him down late in the first.
Prediction: Taisumov via first-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Ian Entwistle vs. Alejandro Perez

Ian Entwistle's (9-2) relentless pursuit of submissions came back to bite him in the UFC debut, where he held fast to a heel hook attempt and, in doing so, allowed Daniel Hooker to beat him senseless with elbows. "Enty" returned to Bantamweight and had a bit more success with his leglocks against Anthony Birchak, whom he tapped in 64 seconds.
He has never gone past the first round as an amateur or a professional, scoring seven submissions.
Mexico’s Alejandro Perez (16-6) took home gold on the inaugural TUF: "Latin America" with a decision over teammate Jose Alberto Quinones. He suffered a quick submission loss to Patrick Williams his next time out, but rebounded with an injury stoppage of Scott Jorgensen in Nov. 2015.
He will give up two inches of height to the 5’8" Entwistle.
Entwistle fights are annoying to pick because he either wins big or loses big -- there are no in-betweens. Either he scores an immediate sub or gets smashed to pieces in the process. This fight should be no different, as Perez is by far the better striker and has some decent grappling of his own.
Honestly, though, I think Entwistle catches him.
Perez, while very skilled and well-rounded, doesn’t have the top-tier submission defense he’d need to survive the early onslaught. Entwistle wraps up a heel hook sometime in the first two minutes.
Prediction: Entwistle via first-round submission

135 lbs.: Filip Pejic vs. Damian Stasiak

Filip Pejic (10-1) has gone 8-0-1 since a technical knockout loss in 2012, including a four-fight first-round knockout streak through 2013. Following a draw against Serbia’s Slobodan Maksimovic, he destroyed Zoltan Turai with soccer kicks 57 seconds into their Oct. 2015 showdown.
"Nitro" stands three inches taller than Damian Stasiak (8-3) at 5’11."
A five-fight win streak brought Poland’s Stasiak to UFC, where he debuted in Aug. 2015 in Krakow. There, he struggled with Yaotzin Meza’s grappling en route to a unanimous decision loss. He was originally set to face Erik Perez back in Nov. 2015 before withdrawing.
I watched Pejic’s draw with Maksimovic and came away with a distinct "meh" impression. He’s decent with his hands and decent off his back, but doesn’t throw very much and doesn’t have much in the way of wrestling. Stasiak, meanwhile, is every bit as capable on the feet and also has a decent grappling game to go along with it.
Seems pretty cut-and-dry to me.
Stasiak should have at least a slight edge everywhere the fight goes, plus the option of hitting a takedown if things get hairy. Expect a clear decision win for the Pole.
Prediction: Stasiak via unanimous decision


Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record 2016: 29-27-1

[JIBBBY]

145 lbs.: Robert Whiteford vs. Lucas Martins
Robert Whiteford (12-3) opened his UFC career with a fight against Judo expert Jim Hettes, suffering a second-round submission finish. Wins over Daniel Pineda and Paul Redmond followed before he ran afoul of the resurgent Darren Elkins in October.
He stands three inches shorter than Lucas Martins (15-3) at 5’9."
Following a submission to strikes against Edson Barboza in his UFC debut, Martins rattled off three straight victories, one each at Lightweight, Bantamweight and Featherweight. He’s since lost two straight, one to the aforementioned Elkins and one to blue-chip prospect Mirsad Bektic.
He’s knocked out 11 opponents and submitted another three.
Even with his recent struggles, it’s been fun to watch Martins go from the awkward, hittable mess that barely scraped by Jeremy Larsen to a legitimately dangerous striker with solid takedown defense. There’s no shame in losing to Elkins, who’s on a roll and also beat Whiteford, or to Bektic, who’s probably the division’s best prospect.
Against Whiteford, the Brazilian’s power and durability should pay dividends. He’s certainly capable of forcing the Scot to stand with him and ought to win the ensuing slugfest. Expect an entertaining round or two before "Mineiro" drops the hammer.
Prediction: Martins by second-round technical knockout


265 lbs.: Cyril Asker vs. Jared Cannonier
France’s Cyril Asker (7-1) joins UFC on a five-fight win streak, the latter three in South Africa’s EFC promotion. His most recent bout saw him oust champion Andrew van Zyl with a guillotine choke, his fifth first-round finish.
"Silverback" has knocked out three and submitted two opponents.
Jared Cannonier (7-1) made his promotional debut in Jan. 2015, suffering a first-round knockout to Shawn Jordan. He was set to make a second Octagon appearance in Aug. 2015 against Jonathan Wilson, only to suffer a broken rib in training.
His six finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Asker’s big and has a decent grasp of boxing, but his speed, diversity, and wrestling are all lacking. Cannonier has the athletic edge and I’m not convinced Asker can take his power. Though Asker has a decent right hand and these are heavyweights, I’m fairly confident Cannonier takes it.
In this matchup of "Silverback" vs. "Killa Gorilla," the rhymes have it. Cannonier catches him in an exchange sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Cannonier defeats Asker via first-round technical knockout


185 lbs.: Bojan Velickovic vs. Alessio Di Chirico
Bojan Velickovic (13-3), training out of the Elevation Fight Team alongside T.J. Dillashaw and others, enters UFC having won four straight since a loss to Ultimate Fighter 17 competitor Gilbert Smith. In January, "Serbian Steel" picked up the RFA Welterweight title with a third-round guillotine of Benjamin Smith.
Eight of his wins have come by submission, five of them via form of choke.
Italy’s Alessio Di Chirico (9-0) tore through the local circuit, stopping his first five opponents in one round each and the sixth under a minute into the second round. He’s since moved on to the European scene and picked up another three wins in Poland and the Czech Republic.
He’s knocked out and submitted four opponents apiece.
This should be interesting, at the very least. This is a well-matched clash between decent prospects, both of whom have somewhat similar styles. I’m leaning towards Velickovic, although I have some concerns about the longtime welterweight’s overpowering style making the jump to 185 pounds.
Neither man has a clear edge in the striking or wrestling department, but Velockovic showed some very solid takedown reversals against Smith that should allow him to bring his crushing top game to bear. Combine that with his superior gym and experience against quality opposition and you have the recipe for either a mid-fight sub or competitive decision for the big Serb.
Prediction: Velickovic via unanimous decision

[Ty$]

I think whiteford has a good chance to upset... Big power in his hands

[Droz37]

Get ready boys, lines about to come out for the rest of this card, on 5 dimes within the next half hour.

hey Josh, where do you find the info on when the lines will be released?
I keep missing some really nice odds, still not too bad when I notice but you keep getting the jump on them!

[mirinquads]

Ok enough is enough, dude you are delusional if think posting on this tiny SBR MMA subforum section moves straight lines in MMA!!! Props we can possibly move and probably only on 5dimes early on but no way on the straights on all books..

News flash - all those views you get on your threads and even the ones on the Event Threads are repeat look ins. Probably 25x or more repeat look ins from the regulars.. So your 10,000 views are really like 500 new views tops... Most of those views come in during the live event also.. I know they do on the Event threads..

Sorry to burst your bubble buddy but we aren't end all here on SBR for MMA gambling.. Feel free to talk about straight plays as the lines won't move, trust me.. There are many other MMA forums that get more views then here and many other very good MMA gamblers that even charge for their picks and those picks are already out.

These books have so much action coming in on both directions it doesn't matter with the straights especially in the big name fights..

For example - WE AND OTHERS ANNOUNCED ON THIS FORUM SEVERAL TIMES THAT WE WERE ALL BETTING ON BEN ROTHWELL and that line is dropping not increasing.. JDS is getting all the action right now..

If you can't move lines in MMA it's because the books don't respect your bets Jiibbby. They see you as a fish in other words.

[Shagdogy]

Timothy Johnson +155 looking mighty tasty to me. As long as he fights smart I think he wins comfortably. Love it. Gonna be on him and Rothwell.

[JoshKnows46]

If you can't move lines in MMA it's because the books don't respect your bets Jiibbby. They see you as a fish in other words.

Exactly this, plus he doesn't bet openers, so the market already corrects it self by the time he places his bets, and gets the shitties lines possible.

[JoshKnows46]

hey Josh, where do you find the info on when the lines will be released?
I keep missing some really nice odds, still not too bad when I notice but you keep getting the jump on them!

I get a notification on my cell about 20 30 minutes before they come out and what they'll be.this is a widely used forum, I don't want to post it in the open,and have everyone fukin up the openers.im gonna private message you about it tonight.

[mirinquads]

Exactly this, plus he doesn't bet openers, so the market already corrects it self by the time he places his bets, and gets the shitties lines possible.

Jibbby loves betting the worst possible odds.. Maybe it keeps him from getting limited

[JoshKnows46]

^^Where the hell did you get Rothwell ITD at +132? If that's true that impressive line shopping and I'd like to join that book.. I searched all my books and most don't even have props out yet on this fight....

I hit that Roth ITD at +121 a week ago on 5D and it's now down to +110..

$200.00

$242.00

Pending

4/10/16 4:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1005 Rothwell wins inside distance +121* <small>vs</small> Not Rothwell inside distance

I made that bet on 5dimes

[Snoman]

Mind sharing that line posting notification with me as well Josh? I'm only really paying attention to fighting and hockey right now, small units on the bets. No worries if not!

Diggin the read on the Ngannou, he's looked impressive in his last couple.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Funny guys.. I move mountains I don't move lines..

Josh how come you didn't start your own Joshknows thread for this event? There must be a reason for this as I know your ego wouldn't allow you to forget such important tings..

[JIBBBY]

If you can't move lines in MMA it's because the books don't respect your bets Jiibbby. They see you as a fish in other words.

Miri please don't feed into Josh's delusions of grandeur with him being able to move lines, it's bad enough now some of the things he believes but we don't need to make matters even worse.......

[CaDDyy]

jds wins 5 round fight.

[JIBBBY]

I just looked at the Rothwell ITD prop and it's now at +145.. Geeeez!!!! What is going on here? We have some line movement going on with this prop and it's going in favor of JDS.. Shit, I should have waited this one out..

1005 Rothwell wins inside distance

+146

Some interesting prop odds if you feel like taking a shot - Reasons why -

1) Big Ben comes out swinging hard and while he's fresh and not gassed finishs JDS early..

1015 Rothwell wins in round 1

+425

2) Big Ben rocks JDS standing and then jumps on his ass for a choke out.. Rothy has been getting sub wins lately anyways.. Keep in mind though JDS is Brazilian Black Belt and I'm sure he has major Jits defense so he better get really rocked standing first for the Rothwell submission win to happen. Like Rothy did with Josh Barnett.

1035 Rothwell wins by submission

+353

3) JDS comes in lean and fast, decides to box it out and win rounds on points.. Big Ben is durable and it goes to decision with JDS winning clearly on points..

1047 Dos Santos wins by 5 rd unanimous dec

+950

4) It becomes a war and we all know both these fighters are durable so the fight goes the distance with either guy maybe winning, judging robbery, etc..

1003 Rothwell / Dos Santos goes 5 rd distance

+400

[JIBBBY]

[JoshKnows46]

Mind sharing that line posting notification with me as well Josh? I'm only really paying attention to fighting and hockey right now, small units on the bets. No worries if not!

Diggin the read on the Ngannou, he's looked impressive in his last couple.

I gotcha, gonna send a pm shortly.

[Pimp178]

I gotcha, gonna send a pm shortly.

yo josh bro hook me up man, with the line dropping I drop on jockey from time to time, but Would like to use it on NFL when it comes back on.

[Droz37]

I get a notification on my cell about 20 30 minutes before they come out and what they'll be.this is a widely used forum, I don't want to post it in the open,and have everyone fukin up the openers. I'm gonna private message you about it tonight.

Thanks man, I would have responded in pm but this forum only allows people to send pm's after they have posted 40+ times, so unless I just open up my own thread and post another 25 times I can't respond at this time. I'll keep you informed on how it goes though.

[UncleChael]

Dan Hardy and John Gooden breakdown the main event. They get Overeem to come in and give his thoughts about JDS and BIG BEN.

[LBfightlife]

I gotcha, gonna send a pm shortly.

Ahoy mates,

Josh - What do you think about big Tim Johnson? He's coming with the glorious victory mustache.

I hear he is looking good with big ups to his cardio in the gym. Again I am a little suspect on his camp, if he has any good big men pushing him. . I can't confirm if he has traveled much out of North Dakota, perhaps went down to The Academy in Minneapolis a few times to Greg Nelsons gym.. He is a solid d1 wrestler .. So I am sure he is working with the local wrestling team as well...

I made some good cash on his when he was +320 for his debut.. He beat a really good russian striker..

He has really heavy hands.. Good clinch.. good shot...

Coin flip? See any value? What would you cap him at?


Thanks bru

[bjpenn85]

Anyone has the link to Francis Ngannous last fight against de oliveira?

[JoshKnows46]

My Full Card:
Ben Rothwell -110 Risking $1100*
Ben Rothwell itd +132 Risking $250*
Ben Rothwell by sub +500 Risking $100
Rothwell scorecards = no action -120 $600*
Rothwell scorecards =no action -131 $350
Rothwell wins in round 2 +525 $100
Rothwell wins in round 3 +875 $100

Christine Stancui +180 $250
Christine Stancui +155 $250
Christine Stancui +160 $100

Francis Zavier Ngannou +100 $250
Francis Zavier Ngannou -120 $300
Francis Zavier Ngannou -125 $312.5
Francis Zavier Ngannou -130 $325*

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -280
Jon jones -500
Mighty mouse -400
$700 to win $725

Mairbek Taisumov -310 $310 to win $100

Parlay
Mairbek Taisumov -290
NOT Dos Santos Inside the distance -176
$500 to win $554.47


Peljic wins inside the distance +315 $100 (0.33 unit)
Blancowicz wins by dec +285 $100 (0.33 unit)
Ngannou 3rd round finish +825 $100 (0.33 unit)
Lewis 3rd round finish +900 $100 (0.33 unit)
Lewis -140 $150 (1/2 unit)
Pejic under 2.5 rounds +150 $150 (1/2 unit)


Stancui wins in the 2nd +775 $100
Stancui wins in the 3rd +1500 $100
Stancui wins by sub +700 $100

[JIBBBY]

PROPS ARE UP!!!!

With all these HW fights I'm looking for those ITD plays....