[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET
Ronda Rousey vs. Holly Holm (for women's bantamweight title)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Valerie Letourneau (for strawweight title)
Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva
Uriah Hall vs. Robert Whittaker
Jared Rosholt vs. Stefan Struve

FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Akbarh Arreola vs. Jake Matthews
Kyle Noke vs. Peter Sobotta
Anthony Perosh vs. Gian Villante
Danny Martinez vs. Richie Vaculik

UFC Fight Pass, 6:15 p.m. ET
James Moontasri vs. Brendan O'Reilly
Daniel Kelly vs. Steve Montgomery
Steven Kennedy vs. Richard Walsh
Ryan Benoit vs. Ben Nguyen

[Kermit]

Looking forward to seeing Joanna fight. Couldn't care less about the main event.

[mirinquads]

Holm by triangle, believe it

[JIBBBY]

Holm by triangle, believe it

Holm has been working on her ground and has the long limbs but the triangle is not happening...

1035 Holm wins by submission

+3225

Rousey by armbar is my call... Rousey isn't gonna wanna stand for too long against Holm either.. To the ground it goes with a hip toss.. Outside chance for a Rousey pound out stoppage on the ground and not the arm bar though..



I really need to start paying attention to the "any other result" when betting these props.. I've never bet that side of the props and just realizing the value now in some of them...

FOR example - with this Rousey wins by sub prop below - If Rousey wins by KO, Decision or any other way possible you win +170 on your bet.. I'm still learning MMA betting fellas after all this time!!!

Will start paying attention to these abstract "other result" prop MMA bets.. Money to be made...

Sat 11/14		1039 Rousey wins by submission		-230
11:00PM		1040 Any other result		+170

[Thor4140]

i would love to bet Hunt but this fat fuker might not have even started camp yet.

[CaptChaos145]

Holly is very smart. She will not do what some of the other girls have done. Miesha, Cat, Beth, and Alexis all had horrible game plans. Holly will use lateral movement and Ronda knows this. Holly has to get in and out. I actually think she can pull it off if she fights a perfect fight. Remember Ronda is a clinch girl. She needs to be close. She doesn't shoot from far out like wrestlers.

[bjpenn85]

Holly is very smart. She will not do what some of the other girls have done. Miesha, Cat, Beth, and Alexis all had horrible game plans. Holly will use lateral movement and Ronda knows this. Holly has to get in and out. I actually think she can pull it off if she fights a perfect fight. Remember Ronda is a clinch girl. She needs to be close. She doesn't shoot from far out like wrestlers.

But only in theory. She will get clinched, taken down and submitted. If Rousey refuse to take her down despite being litted up on the feet, then maybe. But why would she do that if she can easily win by just go for one single takedown? If Holly holm had power as well i would give her a fair chance. I agree she appears very smart, but at this point nothing can save her unfortunately.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

on to the next one...

[agendaman]

3 team parlay-Rhonda-Joanna-jake Matthews let's see -1600 to -1800 to -650 gonna try it

[JIBBBY]

3 team parlay-Rhonda-Joanna-jake Matthews let's see -1600 to -1800 to -650 gonna try it

Chances are this 3 teamer hits.. GL..

[UncleChael]

Give me Big Foot Silva @ +221 ALL DAY!

[UncleChael]

Holm has been working on her ground and has the long limbs but the triangle is not happening...

1035 Holm wins by submission

+3225

Rousey by armbar is my call... Rousey isn't gonna wanna stand for too long against Holm either.. To the ground it goes with a hip toss.. Outside chance for a Rousey pound out stoppage on the ground and not the arm bar though..



I really need to start paying attention to the "any other result" when betting these props.. I've never bet that side of the props and just realizing the value now in some of them...

FOR example - with this Rousey wins by sub prop below - If Rousey wins by KO, Decision or any other way possible you win +170 on your bet.. I'm still learning MMA betting fellas after all this time!!!

Will start paying attention to these abstract "other result" prop MMA bets.. Money to be made...

Sat 11/14		1039 Rousey wins by submission		-230
11:00PM		1040 Any other result		+170

Okay, Rousey wins ITD Obvs. SO it's 50/50 between the ko and Sub, why would u play that lol? Rousey wins by sub though.

[Unwritten Law]

Feel that Holly has been fed the champ a fight or two too soon. She'll probably put on a valiant effort but it won't be enough to get the win. This is like Horiguchi vs Mini Mouse. Will be rooting for Holly but just don't see her getting past Ronda.

I like Gian Villante over the 43 year old Perosh at -350. Perhaps adding him to the 3 teamer mentioned above (Rousey/Joanna/Matthews).

Also considering Urijah Hall and Ryan Benoit. Hall is very confident right now offering to fight on short notices and willing to travel throughout the country to do so. This will be his 5th fight this year.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

last Rousey fight did a supposed 900K buys, wonder how much this will do

[mirinquads]

Who gives a shit?

[JIBBBY]

Feel that Holly has been fed the champ a fight or two too soon. She'll probably put on a valiant effort but it won't be enough to get the win. This is like Horiguchi vs Mini Mouse. Will be rooting for Holly but just don't see her getting past Ronda.

I like Gian Villante over the 43 year old Perosh at -350. Perhaps adding him to the 3 teamer mentioned above (Rousey/Joanna/Matthews).

Also considering Urijah Hall and Ryan Benoit. Hall is very confident right now offering to fight on short notices and willing to travel throughout the country to do so. This will be his 5th fight this year.

Good calls Unwritten..

Agreed with the Villante and Hall plays.. Both should win their fights...

Value with Hall for sure... He is fighting very confident and on a roll right now.. Won 5 of his last 6 fights and now on a 2 fight win streak.. Beating Mousasi was big.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Uriah-Hall-14210

Robert Whittaker is a very tough out but I figure if Wonder Boy can KO Whittaker so can Hall with his funky kicks and what not...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Robert-Whittaker-45132

[JIBBBY]

Okay, Rousey wins ITD Obvs. SO it's 50/50 between the ko and Sub, why would u play that lol? Rousey wins by sub though.

Is it 50/50 for the KO or Sub win for Rousey?

Rousey has been looking for the KO's in fights either standing or via the pound out on the ground.. 3 of her last 4 fights ended with the KO.. So the Rousey wins by submission -230 compared to any other result at +170 I believe has value..

Sure Rousey can sink in the arm bar but I don't think it's a 50/50 chance when considering any other result in the fight..

Sat 11/14		1039 Rousey wins by submission		-230
11:00PM		1040 Any other result		+170

[JIBBBY]

Jared Roshold should simply grapple fock Skyscraper.. At +118 I think he is the call..

Roshold probably also wins this fight on points and by decision if I had to guess with Struve on his back the entire fight..

1407 Rosholt wins by 3 round decision

+175

[bjpenn85]

Jared Roshold should simply grapple fock Skyscraper.. At +118 I think he is the call..

Roshold probably also wins this fight on points and by decision if I had to guess with Struve on his back the entire fight..

1407 Rosholt wins by 3 round decision

+175

Its not a really bad bet at +175, but with struves experience + grappling acumen its not a very good bet either. If you continuously have a lot of these bets they usually eat up profits. I usually have 2 or or maybe three main plays, and then these types of bets make up for 20% of the amount risked, max. This event is particularly bad for betting, because so many fighters on the event are losers with 50% win and lose records. Those cant be trusted, they are unstable and should make people hesitant to wager. From now on and to christmas there are 7 events left, sucks to start with red numbers on a good card (which many of the last events are), just because you couldnt keep your wee wee in your mufackin pants.

[JIBBBY]

Its not a really bad bet at +175, but with struves experience + grappling acumen its not a very good bet either. If you continuously have a lot of these bets they usually eat up profits. I usually have 2 or or maybe three main plays, and then these types of bets make up for 20% of the amount risked, max. This event is particularly bad for betting, because so many fighters on the event are losers with 50% win and lose records. Those cant be trusted, they are unstable and should make people hesitant to wager. From now on and to christmas there are 7 events left, sucks to start with red numbers on a good card (which many of the last events are), just because you couldnt keep your wee wee in your mufackin pants.

I can't argue your logic..

My deal is - I bet larger on the straight wins.. I then bet very small with the props with value.. I don't often load up on prop bets unless it's a lock..

For example - I'll probably bet $200 on Rosholt to win straight up at +118, and then bet another $50 on the prop "win by decision" at the +175..

So now if Rosholt wins the fight and not by decision and I lose the prop I still walk away with a nice win because of the larger straight win bet..

Struve has a decent guard and you just know Rosholt is gonna work for take downs and get them all fight long.. He should man handle Struve in this fight.. Most likely Rosholt wins the fight and by decision unless Struve lands a bomb on the chin late or locks up a lucky submission which is not likely to happen..

Outside chance Rosholt could finish Struve with the ground and pound also but that's not likely to happen because of Struve's long guard...

[Thor4140]

This is the only time i actually thought someone had a chance to beat Rousey. Very slim but a chance. I think Rhonda will get picked apart standing. She will impose her will but that bull rushing boxing style works well with girls who have no skills and less brains. Holly will side step that nonsense. If she only had some power i would be all over her. I can see Rhonda fighting as dumb as most of the girls who have fought her. Trying to prove she can stand with Holly. This won't be a one rounder.

[Thor4140]

Anyone know if Hunt is under 400 lbs?

[Kermit]

[JIBBBY]

Anyone know if Hunt is under 400 lbs?

Lol..

Not a bad question as Hunt barely made the weight in his last fight.. http://www.mmamania.com/2015/5/11/85...o-injuries-mma

Big Foot Silva - Their first fight went 5 rounds to a draw 2 years ago and Hunt isn't getting any younger..

I think ya gotta try Silva at +odds even without the test injections in the rematch... Silva is on the one fight win streak.. lol.. He did look decent though against Soa Palelei. Hey, but it's always a real gamble betting on Big Foot Silva against anyone with big punching power..

Bigfoot Silva has to be the smart play here I think... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Antonio-Silva-12354

[Sanity Check]

Yeah. Hunt cut down to 265 in his last fight.

Afterward he said he would never do it again.

[UncleChael]

Give me Big Foot Silva @ +221 ALL DAY!

Meh. Wtf do I know. Retired. It's MMA anything could happen. I don't care who wins, but I know it will be great.

[Heyeverybody99]

Mmmmm. Look at dem titties jiggle.

[PaperTrail07]

Beware th HippO!

Jared Roshold should simply grapple fock Skyscraper.. At +118 I think he is the call..

Roshold probably also wins this fight on points and by decision if I had to guess with Struve on his back the entire fight..

1407 Rosholt wins by 3 round decision

+175

[mirinquads]

That boxing technique makes my penis even more flaccid that that man body.. Yikes

[Thor4140]

if i knew hunt was just half serious and in halfway decent shape he would knock Silva senseless. Jibby Silva looked awful his last fight. His opponent happen to put on the worst performance i have ever witness in MMA. Prolly why he got out of the sports. Pitiful. Silva off the juice wouldn't last a minute against Hunt if Hunt was serious. For all i know Hunt may be coming right from the tap room to the fight. Then after he wins a hard five round fight where he gassed after 1 he can tell us all about it giggling while i wagered my money on him. no thanks.

[JIBBBY]

Event write ups - Lock and load boys!!!

Mmm mania prelims Part 1 - http://www.mmamania.com/2015/11/9/96...-melbourne-mma

Bleacher report main card preview - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...nd-predictions

Combat Press - http://combatpress.com/2015/11/toe-t...d-predictions/

[UncleChael]

[JIBBBY]

Ummm am I missing something here? I remember Bigfoot Silva and Hunt fighting to a draw in a 5 round fight 2 years ago.. Just happened to look at the 1.5 over in this fight and the odds are set at +160... My eyes lit up..

I understand these are big guys with suspect chins, but I also remember betting large in the 1st fight that it wouldn't go the 5 round distance and I lost my asss... That loss left me scratching my head... Now I see this over line....

What do you do with this? Do you take the over now at favorable odds or is it a sucker bet?

UFC 193 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - Etihad Stadium - Melbourne, Australia - PPV
Sat 11/14		1201 Antonio Silva		+225	o1½ +160
11:00PM		1202 Mark Hunt		-265	u1½ -185

[Sanity Check]

Ummm am I missing something here? I remember Bigfoot Silva and Hunt fighting to a draw in a 5 round fight 2 years ago.. Just happened to look at the 1.5 over in this fight and the odds are set at +160... My eyes lit up..

When Bigfoot and Hunt last met, Bigfoot was on TRT.

With TRT banned, Bigfoot has no way to treat his medical condition and has looked like a vastly inferior version of himself.

Bigfoot has a condition where tumors form on his pituitary gland and need to be surgically removed intermittently. AFAIK, the pituitary gland is the organ responsible for producing testosterone in the body. Over time Bigfoot has had pieces of his gland removed to treat his medical condition and with TRT banned its been hampering his ability to fight.

Whether or not Bigfoot might find a legal way to raise his testosterone to where it needs to be for him to be 100%, I'm clueless.

But in Bigfoot's fights post TRT ban he has looked vulnerable and just not like the same fighter, most will probably go with the under expecting Hunt to finish Bigfoot with the first solid punch he lands as Bigfoot's chin has looked suspect once he got off the TRT.

[Unwritten Law]

I would lean the over but wouldn't get too crazy. Hunt's chin can go past 1 round but can't really say that about Big Foot. If somebody wins in the first I'm betting it's Hunt. His 3 KO losses occurred in the 3rd vs Jr Dos Santos; 2nd vs Werdum, and 5th vs Miocic.

Meanwhile Big Foot has displayed his glass chin in the 1st round against Mir; Arlovski; Cain, and Cormier.