[THE_LOCKSMITH]

MAIN CARD (FOX Sports 2, 3 p.m. ET)
Lyoto Machida vs. Mark Munoz
Melvin Guillard vs. Ross Pearson
Ryan Jimmo vs. Jimi Manuwa
Norman Parke vs. Jon Tuck
Nicholas Musoke vs. Alessio Sakara
Phil Harris vs. John Lineker

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 11:45 a.m. ET)
Piotr Hallmann vs. Al Iaquinta
Luke Barnatt vs. Andrew Craig
Jessica Andrade vs. Rosi Sexton
Cole Miller vs. Andy Ogle
Jimy Hettes vs. Mike Wilkinson
Michael Kuiper vs. Brad Scott

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

this is an early one for next week, facebook fights get underway 11:45 AM EST

[brooks85]

dam hate cards like this during football season

[hougigo]

Go Mark Munoz

[mmaed]

I don't see how mark munoz beats Machida. Talk about a tough stylistic matchup. I see Linkeker going through Phil Harris, anyone disagree? Maybe Phil could pull off a sub...other than that Lineker should win the standup.

[MD]

I don't see how mark munoz beats Machida. Talk about a tough stylistic matchup. I see Linkeker going through Phil Harris, anyone disagree? Maybe Phil could pull off a sub...other than that Lineker should win the standup.

Literally anyone can beat Machida. He may be one of the p4p most skilled fighters in MMA, but going to decision will be the death of his career.

[Vaughany]

I don't see how mark munoz beats Machida. Talk about a tough stylistic matchup. I see Linkeker going through Phil Harris, anyone disagree? Maybe Phil could pull off a sub...other than that Lineker should win the standup.

Yee harris should be outclassed completely. Maybe lineker has another tough cut thomwhat with the travelling and all

[reigle9]

Machida-Munoz o2.5 -150 seems like a no-brainer.

[mmaed]

Literally anyone can beat Machida. He may be one of the p4p most skilled fighters in MMA, but going to decision will be the death of his career.

I just went through the list of everyone that's beaten Machida and I don't see anyone Mark Munoz can match skill wise. The closest opponents would be Quinton Jackson and Phil Davis just because of their wrestling ability. Munoz lacks QJ striking technique and Phil Davis athleticism. I'm sure you know this already but I just don't see what Munoz can do here. He would have to get lucky and get Machida up against the fence for three rounds because you know he is screwed at range. Machida has had 15 fights in the ufc. Shogun ko'd him, Jon jones choked the crap out of him and phil davis timed some excellent takedowns in a way that Munoz probably doesn't have the speed or athleticism to do. The only guy that held him up against the cage was Quinton Jackson and it was for one round.

[BIGDAY]

Machida gets his sh!t pushed in.

[MD]

I just went through the list of everyone that's beaten Machida and I don't see anyone Mark Munoz can match skill wise. The closest opponents would be Quinton Jackson and Phil Davis just because of their wrestling ability. Munoz lacks QJ striking technique and Phil Davis athleticism. I'm sure you know this already but I just don't see what Munoz can do here. He would have to get lucky and get Machida up against the fence for three rounds because you know he is screwed at range. Machida has had 15 fights in the ufc. Shogun ko'd him, Jon jones choked the crap out of him and phil davis timed some excellent takedowns in a way that Munoz probably doesn't have the speed or athleticism to do. The only guy that held him up against the cage was Quinton Jackson and it was for one round.

Davis didn't time the takedowns that well at all, Machida gave them up. I was literally yelling at my screen when Machida rushed him in R1, then I calmed down when he started to back away, then he rushed him again and got taken down. The guy is incredibly smart, but the mistakes he does make cost him massively because he needs to do so much to win on the judges' cards. Some people thought that Henderson beat Machida, and that alone should tell you how much people undervalue his style, because he absolutely dominated Dan Henderson.

[mmaed]

I see what your saying. Machida cant let himself get taken down period because his style usually leads to only a few strikes landing per round and if his opponent lands one takedown it will negate machidas offense. He also has a tendency to be the guy that isnt pushing forward.

i will say that i still think machida starches him. I guess i already listed the reasons. I hope machida learns from his loss to davis. Like you said he lost because he overcommited. I think he should have an easier time avoiding the takedown from munoz. The new weight class could also benefit machida, at least in this matchup. 185'ers will be faster than 205's but they should also be weaker. I think machida should still hve the speed advantage over munoz and the strength shoukd at least be comparative.

The most important part is munoz probably has to win a decision to beat machida. He isnt submitting him and he would be lucky to knock him out. This means five rounds of out wrestling him without getting countered and knocked out. Im not sure who fades faster but i would think it will be munoz.

[The iron sheik]

Going to fade Guillard, I think. Pearson isn't exactly my favorite selection for a title run, but at +130 I'll take him over a fighter like Melvin. I'm also liking the o1,5 on Jimmo-Manuva -170.

[mirinquads]

Played those 2 as well, also Craig / whatever over should hit easily

[PunisherIND]

Played those 2 as well, also Craig / Andrews over should hit easily

lol craig andrews. I also like the over on craig/barnatt, and tuck/parke

[Thor4140]

All this talk about how Machida loss to Davis is comical. Not one serious fan of this sport thinks Davis won lol. But now people are brainwashed because of shady judging that Machida actually lost. Hell even Dana had it 3-0 Machida.

[MD]

All this talk about how Machida loss to Davis is comical. Not one serious fan of this sport thinks Davis won lol. But now people are brainwashed because of shady judging that Machida actually lost. Hell even Dana had it 3-0 Machida.

Funnily enough, my Machida ticket was graded a loss. Against Rampage, too. I thought 5Dimes paid the judges off, but now you're saying that the judges have brainwashed 5Dimes? The plot thickens.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Machida gets his sh!t pushed in.

[Boddhissatva]

I wonder what the prop odds for machida in the distance will be...

Either way I have machida winning dominately.

[Sykes]

Looking at this now, should be a few good KO's on this card. Pearson is probably a good style match up for Guillard to get the KO. Cant decide on the Manuwa/Jimmo fight one of them should get KTFO, its bs that its on early but should be a decent night of fights.

[Thor4140]

Funnily enough, my Machida ticket was graded a loss. Against Rampage, too. I thought 5Dimes paid the judges off, but now you're saying that the judges have brainwashed 5Dimes? The plot thickens.

Dude im saying u guys are now talking like he actually lost that fight to Davis. I know he lost the fight to the books and his record but to talk about the Munoz fight like Machida is coming off a bad loss is brainwashing 101. Everyone with an ounce of sense knows Machida won that fight but to talk about this upcoming fight like he is coming off a lost is silly. Got it now? Machida lost that fight like CB Dollaway lost his the other night

[Thor4140]

Funnily enough, my Machida ticket was graded a loss. Against Rampage, too. I thought 5Dimes paid the judges off, but now you're saying that the judges have brainwashed 5Dimes? The plot thickens.

Your still bring up that nonsense where u said i said 5 dimes paid off the judges lol. I ask u to show me once but ya never did. Now if u continue to use this line could u show me where i said it. Do u watch a lot of Fox News?

[MD]

Your still bring up that nonsense where u said i said 5 dimes paid off the judges lol. I ask u to show me once but ya never did. Now if u continue to use this line could u show me where i said it. Do u watch a lot of Fox News?

You said that the sportsbooks pay off the judges, so when I bring up one of the biggest sportsbooks, your response is "I DIDN'T SAY THAT SHOW ME WHERE I SAID THAT"? It's irrelevant regardless. Would it have mattered if I had made my Machida bets with Pinnacle? They'd still be graded losers. You can easily replace 5Dimes with "random book I made my Machida bets on".

As for your other post, Machida did lose that fight and he is coming off a loss. Did he deserve to win? Clearly, but what's relevant here is how judges are going to score his fights and how it works for and against him. This is a gambling forum, after all.

[omalley21]

The dolloway decision was the worst Ive ever seen. The machida davis couldve gone either way. Not a robbery at all.

[mmaed]

Guillard has more speed and power but he is a moron. Pearson has the tools to win so for me its a no bet. Maybe pearson plus 3.5 points would be worth it if you could get a great melvin by ko hedge.

Craig vs barnatt: i dont know much about barnatt. I still have to see his fight against colin hart. From what i read it was competitive. I did a little reseach on colin hart and on paper he doesnt look that impressive. Im going to have to watch the tape but at this point i am thinking craig is probably a solid bet. He has a good ground game, wrestling that might be good enough to take barnatt down, a brown belt in jiu jitsu and hes tough as nails. Im actually suprised by the line. Granted, craigs line is padded with great luck. Noke blew out his knee in their fight and natal was beating his ass before he lost.

I think machida trounces munoz. Munoz is just too damn slow for machida. His wrestling hasnt transitioned to mma very well either. On top of that i see him getting tired by the fourth and fifth rounds which will compound his lack of speed. Machida ITD is a really good bet in my opinion for the reason i mentioned last. Oh yeah, munoz striking sucks as well. So hes slow, his striking sucks, and he will probably be tired from chasing machida by the fourth round. I cant see him winning unless he lands a luck shot on machida.

Manuwa vs jimmo. I think jimmo is the much more talented fighter, by a huge margin. The only problem is manuwa hit kyle kinsbury so hard it made me feel bad for him. He hits like a truck and could catch jimmo. The positive is jimmos style is karate based like machidas and usually revolves around svoiding strikes and landing lone counters which could prove cery effective against manuwa. On top of that manuwa will probably gas before the fight is over. That is my hunch at least. He is heavily muscled. I like jimmo at dog odds and i like him itd as well. Fight doesnt go to decision is probably a good bet as well. The reasons being manuwas power, jimmos power and the likelyhood that manuwa wilk gas amd get koed or submitted.

Phil harris vs john lineker: lineker is a beast. Phill harris seems somewhat decent though. He has a lot of submissions on his record as well. I expect lineker to knock him out in this one but phils submission ability makes me a little nervous given the fact that lineker was recently tapped out. Granted i think that was his ufc debut.

Kuiper vs brad scott: i read brad scotts bio, thats about as much as i know about him. He normally fights at 170. He had a southwest muay thai title. No idea how good that is. It says he started training in the royal navy to get in shape. Hes 24 so that would mean hes only been training for a coupe of years unless he started muay thai as a youth. I amnguessing kuiper wins this one handily but it would be worth watching his fiht against robert whitaker becaus he is pretty decent.

[MD]

Guillard has more speed and power but he is a moron. Pearson has the tools to win so for me its a no bet. Maybe pearson plus 3.5 points would be worth it if you could get a great melvin by ko hedge.

Craig vs barnatt: i dont know much about barnatt. I still have to see his fight against colin hart. From what i read it was competitive. I did a little reseach on colin hart and on paper he doesnt look that impressive. Im going to have to watch the tape but at this point i am thinking craig is probably a solid bet. He has a good ground game, wrestling that might be good enough to take barnatt down, a brown belt in jiu jitsu and hes tough as nails. Im actually suprised by the line. Granted, craigs line is padded with great luck. Noke blew out his knee in their fight and natal was beating his ass before he lost.

I think machida trounces munoz. Munoz is just too damn slow for machida. His wrestling hasnt transitioned to mma very well either. On top of that i see him getting tired by the fourth and fifth rounds which will compound his lack of speed. Machida ITD is a really good bet in my opinion for the reason i mentioned last. Oh yeah, munoz striking sucks as well. So hes slow, his striking sucks, and he will probably be tired from chasing machida by the fourth round. I cant see him winning unless he lands a luck shot on machida.

Manuwa vs jimmo. I think jimmo is the much more talented fighter, by a huge margin. The only problem is manuwa hit kyle kinsbury so hard it made me feel bad for him. He hits like a truck and could catch jimmo. The positive is jimmos style is karate based like machidas and usually revolves around svoiding strikes and landing lone counters which could prove cery effective against manuwa. On top of that manuwa will probably gas before the fight is over. That is my hunch at least. He is heavily muscled. I like jimmo at dog odds and i like him itd as well. Fight doesnt go to decision is probably a good bet as well. The reasons being manuwas power, jimmos power and the likelyhood that manuwa wilk gas amd get koed or submitted.

Phil harris vs john lineker: lineker is a beast. Phill harris seems somewhat decent though. He has a lot of submissions on his record as well. I expect lineker to knock him out in this one but phils submission ability makes me a little nervous given the fact that lineker was recently tapped out. Granted i think that was his ufc debut.

Kuiper vs brad scott: i read brad scotts bio, thats about as much as i know about him. He normally fights at 170. He had a southwest muay thai title. No idea how good that is. It says he started training in the royal navy to get in shape. Hes 24 so that would mean hes only been training for a coupe of years unless he started muay thai as a youth. I amnguessing kuiper wins this one handily but it would be worth watching his fiht against robert whitaker becaus he is pretty decent.

I thought he was cut for holding that leg lock too long against Pierce?

[Thor4140]

You said that the sportsbooks pay off the judges, so when I bring up one of the biggest sportsbooks, your response is "I DIDN'T SAY THAT SHOW ME WHERE I SAID THAT"? It's irrelevant regardless. Would it have mattered if I had made my Machida bets with Pinnacle? They'd still be graded losers. You can easily replace 5Dimes with "random book I made my Machida bets on".

As for your other post, Machida did lose that fight and he is coming off a loss. Did he deserve to win? Clearly, but what's relevant here is how judges are going to score his fights and how it works for and against him. This is a gambling forum, after all.

The point im making which has clearly flown over ur head is that u guys are talking down Machida like he is somehow coming off a bad loss when again anyone worth two cents knows he won that fight. As for five dimes being the biggest book? I would have to say it is Cris aka bookmaker aka DSi. The place where the line originates. let me try to explain something to u that a two year old should be able to see or understand. Last night there was so much money bet on Peyton Manning and probably the biggest lopsided game of the year. I know for a fact this was huge one sided money on Denver. The line was 6.5 half hour before the game the line drops to 6. Now why when all the money is coming in on the favorite the line moves the other way? U want to know why? Cause these crooks know a little more than they should. They know they have refs, coaches and some players in their back pocket and that is why they can drop a line when in fact all the money is on the favorite. Now if u want to play the gullible role have at it.

[Thor4140]

The dolloway decision was the worst Ive ever seen. The machida davis couldve gone either way. Not a robbery at all.

nobody said it was a robbery cous.

[MD]

The point im making which has clearly flown over ur head is that u guys are talking down Machida like he is somehow coming off a bad loss when again anyone worth two cents knows he won that fight. As for five dimes being the biggest book? I would have to say it is Cris aka bookmaker aka DSi. The place where the line originates. let me try to explain something to u that a two year old should be able to see or understand. Last night there was so much money bet on Peyton Manning and probably the biggest lopsided game of the year. I know for a fact this was huge one sided money on Denver. The line was 6.5 half hour before the game the line drops to 6. Now why when all the money is coming in on the favorite the line moves the other way? U want to know why? Cause these crooks know a little more than they should. They know they have refs, coaches and some players in their back pocket and that is why they can drop a line when in fact all the money is on the favorite. Now if u want to play the gullible role have at it.

I couldn't give two shits if American football is corrupt; nothing to do with the discussion at hand. Also, I said that 5Dimes was "one of" the biggest books, I'd assume Pinnacle would be the biggest book, though. MMA lines generally originate on 5Dimes, not Cris, by the way.

"Don't talk bad about Machida like that ". What is this, kindergarten? The guy lost because judges don't score his style as they should. That's a problem that isn't going to disappear, and it's pretty much the only good reason to bet against him here.

[Thor4140]

I couldn't give two shits if American football is corrupt; nothing to do with the discussion at hand. Also, I said that 5Dimes was "one of" the biggest books, I'd assume pinnacle would be the biggest book, though. MMA lines generally originate on 5Dimes, not Cris, by the way.

"Don't talk bad about Machida like that ". What is this, kindergarten? The guy lost because judges don't score his style as they should. That's a problem that isn't going to disappear, and it's pretty much the only good reason to bet against him here.

MD i forgot u know everything. Sorry i question ya. I should know better.

[MD]

MD i forgot u know everything. Sorry i question ya. I should know better.

It's ok bro. I'll throw a value play your way once I finish 'capping the card as an olive branch.

[Thor4140]

It's ok bro. I'll throw a value play your way once I finish 'capping the card as an olive branch.

Maybe make ur own thread at the beginning of the night like u did last time so i don't have to go thru ten pages of ur thread to find out who u like. Then pass this post on to Vaug.

[MD]

Maybe make ur own thread at the beginning of the night like u did last time so i don't have to go thru ten pages of ur thread to find out who u like. Then pass this post on to Vaug.

WAT?! Isn't that the opposite of what you advise everyone to do?

What the actual f-ck?

[Thor4140]

WAT?! Isn't that the opposite of what you advise everyone to do?

What the actual f-ck?

yeah exactly but if it is easier on me then it is okay.

[MD]

That's my kind of thinking. You're all right, Thor.