SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Boxing - Big Play with Analysis
"Sugar" Shane Mosely (USA)
47-8-1 (39 KO's)
Vs.
Anthony "the Man" Mundine (Australia)
44-5 (26 KO's)
(Vacant) WBC light middleweight title fight
Sydney Entertainment Centre (Australia)
So 7 time, 3 division world champion Sugar Shane; now way past his best at 42 and coming off 3 losses in his last 5 fights, is travelling down to Australia to fight Anthony Mudine in his own backyard, who is 4 years younger and has faster hand speed. Mosely will earn a million for this fight and many think he is just here for the pay day, as has been a recent trend with ageing fighters like Roy Jones jr and Frans Botha recently making the trip down to Australia for a pay day.
Mundine is the favourite at -125, although the odds are starting to even up as money continues to flow in for Mosley. So does Mundine deserve to be the favourite?
At first glance his record is impressive, 44-5 with 26 KO's, however let me tell you something about Mundine. He is an ex-rugby league player who has always had a bad temper and been full of himself, and his father Tony is a famous Australian boxing trainer, so it was inevitable that Mundine would get into boxing at some point. Since the very beginning of his boxing career his fights have been carefully managed, first through his management cherry picking his fights (what is called massaging a record) and then as a result of a weak resume then not being able to get the big fights he claims he wanted/deserved.
This guy is nowhere near as good as he thinks he is. I mean he truly believes if he beats Mosely that Saul Alvarez will fight him, and that Mayweather will notice him - WTF? Like Mayweather even knows who this guy is? And why would anyone in their right mind volunteer to get into the ring with Mayweather unless you were truly world class and at the top of your game. Saying you stepped into the ring with Floyd means nothing if all anyone remembers is how badly you were beaten. Mundine has failed on the rare chances he has had to actually fight decent fighters - notice I said decent fighters and not great.
Mundine vs.
Sven Ottke - was beaten up and KO'ed
Manny Siaca - put up a good fight but still lost a SD
Mikkel Kessler - UD loss. Totally outclassed.
Danny Green - his 1 and only career defining victory (7 years ago)
Daniel Geale #1 - Mundine took a highly controversial SD in a fight where the previously unbeaten Geale clearly out boxed him.
Daniel Geale #2 - Order was resorted to Australian boxing and Geale gave "the man" a good old fashioned boxing lesson. Convincing victory.
On the other side of the coin Shane Mosely has been in the ring with the who's who of the boxing world. Win or lose he has squared off against Holiday, Molina, De La Hoya x 2, Forrest x 2, Winky Wright x 2, Vargas x 2, Cotto, Mayorga, Margarito, Mayweather, Mora, Paquiao, and Alvarez. That is the most rediculously stacked boxing resume you could find. I say win or lose as just to get into the ring with many of these guys you have to be at a certain level (a level that is way out of Mundine's reach).
In a recent perhaps similar case of an old champion coming to Australia for a payday we had the "White Buffalo" Frans Botha, who at 45 was fat and far from in shape fighting the insanely athletic 28 year old Sonny Bll Williams. A fat 45 year old white guy fighting a physically imposing (think of a white Lebron James) guy who was undefeated in his first 5 fights and 17 years his junior. On paper it looked real bad for the White Buffalo, yet despite SBW dominating the fight early with speed and movement, Botha actually got stronger as the fight wore on and was within seconds of knocking SBW out at the end of the 10th round when the bell sounded. It was supposed to be a 12 round fight and SBW would have been in a world of hurt and lucky if he survived the 11th and 12th rounds, however in a monumental fukc up the fight was stopped after 10 and SBW declared the winner on points.
The moral of the story - Botha has fought every big name heavyweight in the era when the heavyweights dominated boxing (Tyson, Lewis, Hollyfield, Moorer, etc) and despite losing most of those fights, his class and world class experience shone through against the younger, faster, stronger fighter who was meant to make short work of him. A classic gulf in class fight.
There is a saying in boxing - "A great old boxer will beat a good young boxer" and this saying holds true probably 8 or 9 times out of every 10.
Mosely is definitely a "great old boxer" and Mundine is also a "good young boxer", except that Mundine isn't actually that young. He is 38, only 4 years younger than Mosely, so why they are making a big deal about Mosely's age I have no idea?
Mundine is good no doubt, but he will NEVER be anywhere close to great. He has excellent hand speed and footwork, this is his main strength, however he lacks KO power and gets way too cocky, leaves his hands down too low, has a very suspect chin, and can disappear for 2-3 rounds at a time during fights.
Mosely has never been stopped and Mundine doesn't have real KO power, so is he going to do what guys like Alvarez, Pacquiao, Margarito, etc could not? Not a chance. This fight will most likely be decided by the judges score cards, and Mundine is probably slightly faster than Mosely but nowhere near as experienced, despite having boxed only 17 less rounds over his career than Mosely - it's the quality of the rounds boxed that counts.
Mosely has gone the distance against (or KO'ed) every big name fighter of his era. Who the fukc is Anthony Mundine? Do you Americans and Euro's even know who he is? The gulf in class is massive, it really is. Mosely has ring savvy, he is smarter, and he will dictate the fight and the pace. In Mundine's last fight Daniel Geale easily dictated the pace of the fight and he also is not at Mosely's level.
Remember Mosely's last 4 losses were against Mayweather, Alvarez, Cotto and Pacquiao, there is no shame in losing to these guys, and in between these losses he has solid victories over Mayorga, Margarito (greatest win of his career) and (in his comeback fight) this year over Cano in his last fight. Mundine would struggle to go the distance against most (if not all) of these guys. Again the gulf in class shows.
So the main concern with Mosely is that he has seriously slowed down, not as much his fighting but in his speech, I.e - brain damage? According to Mosely himself, a plethora of neurosurgeons and doctors say he is fine and more than capable of fighting. In his most recent interview on Australia's Fox Sports he sounded alert and fine to me, as usual probably just media hype. In reality probably he has slowed down, he is 42 after all, although Mundine is no spring chicken at 38 himself, and once again these are minor factors that I fully believe will be offset by the large gulf in class between the two fighters.
Mosely has bought Sergio Mora with him to Sydney as a sparring partner, a good sign that he is taking this fight seriously and is not just here for the pay day
Mosely is tough, real tough, and he hits hard, harder than Mundine. He will probably look to get inside of Mundine's slight reach advantage and rough him up and unsettle him. Mundine likes to fight from the outside as he flashy and likes to show off his hand speed. He thinks he is Muhammed Ali and constantly leaves his hands down, backing his speed and head movement. Mosely has a plenty big ego himself, and will not let Mundine get away with any show boating and will take it as an insult if Mundine does leave his guard down. Did I mention Mosely hits hard?
I could go on about this fight all day. I love boxing, always have, but I think I have said enough. You get the point - I'm quite confident Mosely takes this fight and that the odds are wrong. Mundine opened a -135 favourite, completely ridiculous. Mosely should be the -125 favourite for this fight in my humble opinion and you can still get him at +105 at some books although his price is dropping.
(My unit range is 1-5, so a 4 unit bet is a large wager for me)
4* Shane Mosely (+105/$2.05 Sportsbet/IAS Bet)
Louisvillekid1 gave sando 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Nick Papageorgio
