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My Belcher/Okami breakdown
This is my breakdown of the Belcher/Okami fight from an MMA betting perspective. Enjoy!
Alan Belcher vs. Yushin Okami
The Odds
The odds for this fight are about even. Belcher is going for around -110, which computes to him having a 52% chance to win. And Okami is going for around -120 which compute to him having a 55% chance to win.
My handicap
I have this at about a 50/50 fight with Belcher having a very slight edge. At best for Belcher he is about a 60% favorite to win. Since the odds are about 50/50, I would need to have Belcher winning this fight around 70% of the time for me to have at least a 20% margin of safety and consider betting on this fight. Since my odds are close to the moneyline odds, I will not be betting on this fight and I recommend that you do not bet on this fight either. There are too many unknowables going into this fight (which I will discuss below) for there to be any value in these moneyline odds.
Paths to Victory
Let’s start with Okami. Okami has one likely path to victory, and that is by decision. Belcher is competent in submissions and Okami has never submitted anyone (from BJJ) in the UFC, so I do not expect Okami to get his first BJJ submission against Belcher. I do not expect a ko/tko win from Okami either. He has never been one to knock people out and Belcher has a better-than average-chin. The chances of Okami getting a standing knockout on Belcher are very slim. And as for a ground and pound tko, this is not very likely either. For Okami to do this, we would have to see better ground and pound from him than we ever have before, while at the same time seeing a Belcher who is unmotivated and who will give up once this fight hits the floor. The chance of both these things occurring is very small, so a ground and pound tko win for Okami is not likely. If he does get it, it will probably be late in the third round. But again, this is not likely.
Okami is down to one path to victory and that is by getting a decision. This is somewhat likely. Alan Belcher has been put on his back in recent fights by Palhares, Akiyama, and Cote. Again, I just said that Patrick Cote put Belcher on his back. Patrick. Cote. Belcher threw a body kick, Cote caught it, and put Belcher on his back. This is a liability for Belcher. Unless Belcher comes out and knocks out Okami in a minute with punches, knees, or kicks, he is probably going to end up on his back at some point during the fight. All Okami has to do to win this fight is put Belcher on his back twice, stay on top, win two rounds, and call it a night. Belcher is susceptible to being put on his back, Okami is pretty good at putting opponents on their backs, and to me it is logical that this makes an Okami decision a likely path to victory. I thought that Belcher won the Akiyama fight, but it was close enough for the judges to give it to Akiyama. If Akiyama can snag a three round decision from Alan Belcher, then Yushin Okami most certainly can as well.
For Belcher a submission win is not likely. Belcher has two likely paths to victory, a decision victory or a ko/tko victory. Belcher can knockout Okami and stop him with strikes. Or he can win at least two rounds by getting the best of the stand up and win a decision. Both paths are somewhat likely. Okami has been stopped by strikes in two of his last three fights and Buddy Roberts hurt Okami a little on the feet in Okami’s last fight. Belcher has serious power and if his punches land they could hurt Okami. And Belcher could also out strike Okami, stay on his feet, and win at least two of the three rounds.
As we can see at this point, both fighters have likely paths to victory. Okami can get a decision, and Belcher can get a ko/tko or a decision. As to the likelihood of these outcomes, it is just too difficult to predict what is going to happen with any certainty. The unknowables make this fight very difficult to predict and that is why I am calling it at about a 50/50 fight. The intangibles section will cover what these unknowables are.
Intangibles
Career points
The most important intangible for this fight is each fighter’s career point. Belcher is on the up and up. He is 28 years old, improving, and heading towards his prime. After his fight at UFC 113 against Cote, Belcher injured his eye while training in Brazil. I believe that he had to get surgery to repair it. He was losing his vision and I think that retirement from MMA was seriously considered. But instead of retiring, Belcher healed up and came back better than ever. In his two fights since his recovery, Belcher is 2-0 with two first rounds ground and pound stoppages.
In his last fight against Palhares, Belcher got taken down, played footsies with Palhares, never lost his confidence, found his way into Palhares’ guard, and pounded him out. Seeing Belcher go toe-to-toe in a leg lock battle with Palhares was inspiring. It showed that he is preparing extremely well in his camps and is highly motivated to train hard and get his title shot.
For Okami things have not been going so well as of late. He battled for his title shot for years, and when he finally got it he was absolutely destroyed by Anderson Silva. Then in his comeback fight he looked great for the first two rounds. Okami looked better than ever. And then he suffered a brutal third round knockout. In Okami’s last fight he fought a low caliber fighter in Buddy Roberts. Roberts appears to be a journeyman who’s a threat on the feet but not much else. Robert tagged Okami on the feet in rounds one and two, but got taken down, mounted, and pounded out by Okami in round two. While Okami got the easy win, on the feet he looked bad against a bad opponent. Okami was hesitant to strike with Roberts and he did not react well to getting hit. I do not know if Okami’s chin is cracked. I do not know where his head is at. And I do not know his motivation level these days.
All of these questions make knowing which version of Okami will show up against Belcher an unknowable. Will it be the Okami who looked better than ever against Boetsch for the first two rounds? Or will it be the Okami who was getting tagged on the feet by Buddy Roberts? This is an unknowable and makes me very hesitant to call a winner in this fight. Okami looked GREAT in his first two rounds against Boetsch. He looked like he had come back from the Silva loss with a desire to improve and that he was highly motivated. His striking was diversified and powerful. He was strong. His top game was great. But then he got knocked out and did not look too good in his last fight against Roberts. If the Okami that fought Roberts shows up to fight Belcher then I would be betting on Belcher. But if the Okami that fought the first two rounds against Boetsch shows up, I think the fight against Belcher is even and I might even give an edge to Okami. Which Okami will show up on Saturday is an unknowable and is one of the main reasons why I am calling this fight at about 50/50.
Belcher’s kicks and Okami’s takedowns
One of Belcher’s best tools is his kicks. His leg and body kicks can be devastating. At some point Mike Goldberg will probably say something about Belcher’s legs and how they could easily be those of an NFL running back. The man has powerful kicks and they help him win fights. But kicks also leave a fighter susceptible to being taken down and Okami is pretty good at getting fights to the ground. How this battle between Belcher’s kicks and Okami’s takedowns will play out is an unknowable and another reason why I am not betting on this fight.
Belcher’s Improvement
Belcher is an improving fighter. He has looked great in his last two fights and seems highly motivated to continue his run and get his title shot. I believe that he edged Akiyama in their fight and won. If you count that fight as a win, then Belcher has won seven fights in a row and not lost since 2008. There is a chance that Belcher has improved to the point where we could see him steamroll Okami and get a first or second round tko. Not the most likely outcome, but there is a chance that this happens.
Belcher’s Opponents
While Belcher has been improving, his opponents have not been the top guys of the division that Okami has faced for years. Okami is a significant step up in competition for Belcher. They fought back in 2006, but that fight means nothing. Belcher was 22, and it was both of their UFC debuts. This Okami is the toughest opponent Belcher will have ever faced and by a large margin.
Three rounds
If this fight was five rounds I might favor Belcher more, but it is only three rounds. The short length of this fight gives Okami a decent chance of getting a decision. Belcher gets hit a lot on the feet in his fights, and he also ends up on his back a lot. Okami just has to get Belcher down twice, stay on top, win two rounds, and avoid getting knocked out and he’s got a decision win. The fact that this fight is three rounds, coupled with the styles matchup, makes this fight difficult to predict with much certainty and is a factor in me calling it about 50/50.
Okami’s chin
Is it cracked? He got stopped by strikes against Anderson and Boetsch. And in his last fight against a not so great opponent in Buddy Robert, Okami looked hesitant on his feet and did not react well to getting punched. His chin might be cracked, or he might bounce back fine and look like he did in the first two rounds against Boetsch. Another unknowable.
This fight is a trap
Just like an overseas’ CIA agent should never trust a beautiful women who approaches him in a hotel bar, MMA bettors should never trust their first instincts. This fight is a value trap. At first glance, this fight seemed likely to be a sexy bet. We have the veteran who has lost his title shot but still has a respected name against the up and coming fighter in Belcher who is motivated and entering his prime. The odds are saying 50/50, but it doesn’t take much for someone to convince themselves that Belcher, because of his ability to finish, should be a big favorite. This is nonsense. The moneyline odds are priced correctly. Although at first glance this fight appears to be a sexy betting opportunity on Belcher, if you do your homework and watch the tape, you will see that the unknowables make this about a 50/50 fight and that the moneyline odds are priced correctly.
This fight is a difficult fight to predict. Like my mentors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, I prefer to sit back and wait for the fat pitches right down the middle. I am in no rush to gamble my money on these difficult-to-predict fights. I am content to save my capital for the no brainers like Benson Henderson over Nate Diaz and Cain Velasquez over Brock Lesnar. The unknowables make this fight difficult to predict and I am putting it at about a 50/50 fight. The odds are priced correctly here, and there is no betting opportunity on this fight. I advise just sitting back and enjoying this one as a fan.
-Jason Rothman
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Originally Posted by JasonRothman
