[Fenster]

UFC 155

In case you're gonna be busy on fight night, this post will give you an idea of how things will play out:

Christopher "The Crippler" Leben to defeat Derek "No Relation to Doyle" Brunson by knock-out in under 1.5 rounds.

Myles "The Rural Juror" Jury to defeat Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

Alan "The Talent" Belcher to defeat Yushin Okami via TKO stoppage.

Erik Perez to defeat Byron Bloodworth ITD.

Constantinos Philipou to defeat Tim Boetsch via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).

Joe Lauzon to defeat Jim Miller via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28).

[Vaughany]

hmm Lauzon's first ever decision win to come against Jim Miller...get +615 on tht

[Bradbatross]

That's one fight I'm not going to bet on, just going to sit back and enjoy...But if anyone wins a decision it's going to be Miller.

[sideloaded]

Myles "The Rural Juror" Jury to defeat Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27).

Cool story broseph, do tell at parties

[Fenster]

hmm Lauzon's first ever decision win to come against Jim Miller...get +615 on tht

Chances of it ending with Lauzon by Sub, Miller by Sub, and Miller be Decision are better, but I think Lauzon has a good enough chance at winning the decision and at that price, it is certainly worth a wager.

I'm on Lauzon +200 and +185 small and will also have small plays on Lauzon by Decision and Lauzon by Sub. If he loses, it will be the equivalent of losing one semi-large straight ML wager. I'm not overly confident in him, I just think getting him at +140 or better is great value.

[Fenster]

Cool story broseph, do tell at parties

I wouldn't play Jury at +120, as I think this fight is closer to a coin-flip, but at above +200, I'd be crazy to pass it up.

I think there is a very good chance that Myles Jury stays undefeated by outpointing Michael Johnson.

[NunyaBidness]

I wouldn't play Jury at +120, as I think this fight is closer to a coin-flip

Just what this forum needed, one more dumbass.

[Broxbomber]

Just what this forum needed, one more dumbass.

[sideloaded]

this thread is gold

[PunisherIND]

maybe he just hammered the jury line b/c johnson is currently -210. ill take da menace at -210 all day.

[KushMoney]

Fukk yeah

I agree with every one of your picks except for Jim Miller. I think he takes that one by Split Decision...


Now let's talk Guillard/Varner

Holloway/Garcia

and Moraga/Cariaso

I was lookin to catch Moraga as a big dog vs. Cariaso, but he opened @ +125 and is now -200





Holloway opened at -350, was lookin to get a better number maybe around -250 since it's Garcia... guess Books are giving him no respect though!!




Guillard/Varner opened at nearly even again and is slowly moving towards Guillard..






Value on Leben I capped him at least -250.



Goodluck everyone.

[kripsak]

Holloway opened at -350, was lookin to get a better number maybe around -250 since it's Garcia... guess Books are giving him no respect though!!

That line is f'n crazy, Holloway took the fight on 10 day notice. Yeah he just turned 21, so his cardio should be in tip top shape, but knowing Hawaii Guys and their conditioning, eating Spam & Rice, got me smh! Game planning for Garcia is a moot point since he always looks for a brawl, but it looks like Holloway will be spending most of his time cutting weight.

Garcia has a good gas tank, there's a slight chance Garcia can steal this fight by Dec.

We'll just have to see at the weigh-in's to make a better judgement on Holloway.

[Dwil125]

I missed moraga at +125. I caught duffee at -250, ill probably add the under 1.5 also or duffee by tko/ko

[Mercersux]

Duffee at his current price is kind of a bummer. I was hoping he'd get undervalued but oh well. Still enjoy seeing Crippler coming in as a favorite tho. Guy on a year plus layoff with all the problems he's been having ? Brunson all day.

[Fenster]

Fukk yeah

I agree with every one of your picks except for Jim Miller. I think he takes that one by Split Decision...


Now let's talk Guillard/Varner

Holloway/Garcia

and Moraga/Cariaso

I was lookin to catch Moraga as a big dog vs. Cariaso, but he opened @ +125 and is now -200





Holloway opened at -350, was lookin to get a better number maybe around -250 since it's Garcia... guess Books are giving him no respect though!!




Guillard/Varner opened at nearly even again and is slowly moving towards Guillard..






Value on Leben I capped him at least -250.



Goodluck everyone.

I like Holloway but not playing him, might play Duffee. De Fries has no KO power and I don't think he can get the fight to the mat.

Cariasco as a dog is good value but I might pass. I don't love any plays on this card.

[Fenster]

Just what this forum needed, one more dumbass.

If you pounded every slight dog in a fight you believed to be a coin-flip, you would be one sorry loser.

[Dwil125]

I like Holloway but not playing him, might play Duffee. De Fries has no KO power and I don't think he can get the fight to the mat.

Cariasco as a dog is good value but I might pass. I don't love any plays on this card.

De fries is to big not to hit hard, he should be much slower then duffee though. I think duffee at -250 is fair

[Vaughany]

yeah sayin any HW doesnt hit hard is slightly naive. For all you know Duffee may never be same again after the Russow Fist of Doom!

[Fenster]

He may hit hard but he doesn't posses knockout power.

[NunyaBidness]

If you pounded every slight dog in a fight you believed to be a coin-flip, you would be one sorry loser.

That is only true if you are really bad at determining when a fight is a coinflip.

I'll tell you what then. We can flip coins all day and all night and you only have to lay me -110. If I'd get killed at +120, imagine how badly I'll do at +110!

[PunisherIND]

Nunya'll flip ya fereal

[Fenster]

That is only true if you are really bad at determining when a fight is a coinflip.

I'll tell you what then. We can flip coins all day and all night and you only have to lay me -110. If I'd get killed at +120, imagine how badly I'll do at +110!

In either scenario, you're likely to end up losing.

If you believe a fight to be a coin-flip and are in fact right and bet on the +120 dog, you could still lose 10 out of 10 times. So just because I think the fight is a coin-flip doesn't mean the slight dog is a great play.

[Bradbatross]

I wouldn't call that fight a coin flip.

[v1y]

In either scenario, you're likely to end up losing.

If you believe a fight to be a coin-flip and are in fact right and bet on the +120 dog, you could still lose 10 out of 10 times. So just because I think the fight is a coin-flip doesn't mean the slight dog is a great play.

Some would say any +EV play is great.
+120 on a 50/50 fight is +EV.

[NunyaBidness]

In either scenario, you're likely to end up losing.

Wow, you're serious.

I can fly to your location within 48 hours. How big can you gamble, how much money should I bring?

I'm feeling strong after my 4 figure Blokus win last night.

[NunyaBidness]

Some would say any +EV play is great.
+120 on a 50/50 fight is +EV.

It's not +EV, it's HUGELY +EV.

Some of you guys act like 20 cents means nothing. Baseball cappers are breaking their necks to pour money down at +105 at lines they cap at +103.

[Educ8d Degener8]

It's not +EV, it's HUGELY +EV.

Some of you guys act like 20 cents means nothing. Baseball cappers are breaking their necks to pour money down at +105 at lines they cap at +103.

20 cents ain't sh*t to ballers like us Nunya. We only pick WINNERZ!!!!!!!!!!

[Beelzebubzy]

Comedy

[Fenster]

20 cents ain't sh*t to ballers like us Nunya. We only pick WINNERZ!!!!!!!!!!

Mothaf*ck a 20 cent.

[PunisherIND]

Mothaf*ck a 20 cent.

Fenster, is you gabers?

[Fenster]

Body language report:

I like to watch press conferences and fighter interviews. I can often tell when a fighter is being dishonest about something. I'm no Tim Roth but I am pretty good at spotting lies.

I watched Jim Miller talking about his weight-cut going well. He was clearly lying. Makes me feel better about my Lauzon play.

Seeing Cain Velasquez talk about his fight, he is confident he is going to win. He believes it. I remember before their first fight, he would be saying one thing and his face/body language would be saying another.

JDS believes he is going to win, as well.

I am waiting to see some Jamie Varner interviews. If he doesn't believe what he is saying, then I will be making a play on Melvin.

[Fenster]

Fenster, is you gabers?

Only if it's a good thing.

[Beelzebubzy]

Body language rereported do you have a polygraph test

[Vaughany]

Body language report:

I like to watch press conferences and fighter interviews. I can often tell when a fighter is being dishonest about something. I'm no Tim Roth but I am pretty good at spotting lies.

I watched Jim Miller talking about his weight-cut going well. He was clearly lying. Makes me feel better about my Lauzon play.

Seeing Cain Velasquez talk about his fight, he is confident he is going to win. He believes it. I remember before their first fight, he would be saying one thing and his face/body language would be saying another.

JDS believes he is going to win, as well.

I am waiting to see some Jamie Varner interviews. If he doesn't believe what he is saying, then I will be making a play on Melvin.

Well Miller had to cut 20lbs from yesterday so not surprising.

[Beelzebubzy]

Leben looked poor