[Fragoel2]

All right guys, I like to start the brainstorming early, so here it is:

Main Card (PPV)
Anderson Silva vs Stephan Bonnar
Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Dave Herman
Glover Teixeira vs Fabio Maldonado
Jon Fitch vs Erick Silva
Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado
Demian Maia vs Rick Story

Preliminary Card (FX)
Rony Mariano Bezerra vs Sam Sicilia
Gabriel Gonzaga vs TBA
Gleison Tibau vs Francisco Trinaldo
Diego Brandao vs Joey Gambino

Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Sergio Moraes vs Renee Forte
Luiz Cané vs Chris Camozzi
Cristiano Marcello vs Reza Madadi

Odds so far:





Fighters I'm probably going to bet on (so far):

A Silva: I'm pretty much parlaing this with everything to get a bit more juice. I do not recommend it though.

Fitch @ +100 or more: Seriusly, WTF is wrong with the bookmakers? How can they have Silva as favored when his most relevant win is against Charlie Brenneman? Brenneman was also able to take him down more than once, but it wasn't able to keep him down long enough. Fitch has better striking, better takedowns and better control on the ground, he should easily be able to keep Silva on the mat. Am I missing something?

Nogueira: Herman is a can. Period. Nog is far better than Herman, the only way he can lose is by a KO in the first round, but that won't happens since Big Nog has a granite chin. Then, as cherry on the pie, Herman gasses out. Hope to get good lines since Nog comes off a loss and a long layoff.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Teixeira -325, decent

[Jesus Christ]

I agree with Fitch but I'll prolly have to lay off since he's my fav fighter and I'm prolly biased.

[PunisherIND]

I agree with Fitch but I'll prolly have to lay off since he's my fav fighter and I'm prolly biased.

are you related to him or something?

[Grabaka]

are you related to him or something?

Jesus doesnt like violence...he loves hugs. Maybe?

[Jesus Christ]

are you related to him or something?

I had about 5k on him against Alves the second time around and even with pressure to be "exciting" he fought his fight and won me some real money as a slight dog.

It was my first ever large wager on mma and since then I've always liked him.

[GunShard]

Erick Silva might be over hyped.

I'm going to rewatch the past fight footage of Erick Silva and Jon Fitch before making a conclusion.

[GunShard]

Joe Rogan is overrating Stephen Bonnar to make it sound like he has a legit chance to defeat Anderson Silva. I don't see it in the past fight footage.

[Jerseychi]

I like Fitch by his usual fitching. He's been able to fitch almost all of his opponents except GSP and Hendricks.

[GigaOuts]

I have 2.6g on Eric Silva. My 3rd largest bet ever.

largest is 1g on Carlos Condit vs Nick Diaz @+160, add 2.5g on Carlos Condit @+184 (3.5g)
2.7g on Mr. Wonderful vs Rasha Evans --fail--
2.6g on Daniel Pineda vs Mike Brown -- fail --

now this bet, hoping I am 2-2 not 1-4 for big bet.
My only concern with this bet is how well Eric preform if goes deep. Fitch will be fitch from the get go to end of 3rd round. Eric for sure will slow down as the fight progress, I see this fight like Aaron Simpson vs Mike Pierce fight or Danny Castillo vs Michael Johnson fight. Eric for sure will dominated 1st round but if he can't finished, how much he have left for 2rd and 3rd round? But Eric is much younger than Castillo or Aaron Simpson.

[Mercurial]

I think it's all gonna depend on the first round. If Fitch gets a hold of him and wears him down, he'll have an advantage in the 2nd and 3rd ( something he couldn't do with BJ ). Silva is young and hungry, you can definitely see fire in his eyes. I somehow see Silva winning but its a risky pick.

Edit: Other picks hmm...
Silva vs Bonnar match-up left me speechless.
Nogueira > Herman
Texiera > Maldonado

Story vs Maia is the matchup I wont bet on. Maia looked good in the DHK fight, he has been working on his takedowns obviously, but I see him as an inconsistent fighter. Story doesn't have the best takedown defense but comes out swinging every fight. If Maia shows up for the fight, he can finish/grind out a decision, otherwise its gonna be Weidman Maia 2.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

+109 on Fitch is hard to pass up, does the 12 second KO loss to Hendricks really drop him down that far. The guy was basically the 2nd best welterweight for the last 4 years and can still grind out most welterweights.

[gabe]

I have 2.6g on Eric Silva. My 3rd largest bet ever.

largest is 1g on Carlos Condit vs Nick Diaz @+160, add 2.5g on Carlos Condit @+184 (3.5g)
2.7g on Mr. Wonderful vs Rasha Evans --fail--
2.6g on Daniel Pineda vs Mike Brown -- fail --

now this bet, hoping I am 2-2 not 1-4 for big bet.
My only concern with this bet is how well Eric preform if goes deep. Fitch will be fitch from the get go to end of 3rd round. Eric for sure will slow down as the fight progress, I see this fight like Aaron Simpson vs Mike Pierce fight or Danny Castillo vs Michael Johnson fight. Eric for sure will dominated 1st round but if he can't finished, how much he have left for 2rd and 3rd round? But Eric is much younger than Castillo or Aaron Simpson.

u should be 0-3, diaz was robbed

[Fragoel2]

Joe Rogan is overrating Stephen Bonnar to make it sound like he has a legit chance to defeat Anderson Silva. I don't see it in the past fight footage.

Hyping fights is his friggin job.


Fitch is far better than Brenneman in every aspect, so he should be able to do what Brenneman did (take Silva down) but far better. I see him eating less shots and keeping Silva on the ground more. Also, worst comes to worst, Fitch has an okay standup (Charlie doesn't).

As for Maia - Story, I give a technical edge to Maia but Story is bigger and stronger... too close.

[GigaOuts]

u should be 0-3, diaz was robbed

Robbed? I think that word is over use but I do admit it a close ass fight.

[Imsmarterthanu]

Demian Maia all day

[Mercurial]

I see people repeating what Joe Rogan says over and over again. He's a very good commentator just a bit too biased sometimes. And no I'm not saying go rewatch Rua vs Machida but go rewatch Couture vs Machida, Vera vs Shogun or Tibau vs Nurmagomedov.

Regarding Fitch vs Silva - Silva is still considered a newcommer, therefore it's a close call. Comparing Brenneman and Fitch is plain stupid, since this is MMA not math. You could've compared Hendricks with any other Fitch's previous opponent the same way and make a point that Fitch would win.

[PunisherIND]

damnit, missed the +370 on maldanado.

[Crassus]

Phil Davis at -335, beautiful.

[PunisherIND]

parlaying texeira -290 and big nog -215

[Vaughany]

surprised money came in on Herman on sportbet/5dimes. I played Big Nog

[Crassus]

surprised money came in on Herman on sportbet/5dimes. I played Big Nog

events like this cause bias against Nog.

[Beelzebubzy]

Nog is the play for me. If this hits the ground it's over in a minute
I'm guessing the V approved play is Nog Sotn hedged with Herman by ko

[Vaughany]

Nog is the play for me. If this hits the ground it's over in a minute
I'm guessing the V approved play is Nog Sotn hedged with Herman by ko

yes, I would have to approve that squire

[gabe]

Robbed? I think that word is over use but I do admit it a close ass fight.

Nah, only thing missing was holding a gun to Diaz's head while Dana wrapped the belt around Condit's waist.

[ShotgunRua]

I'm planning on allocating £600 to this event. So far I've put £50 on Erick Silva and £50 on Maia. I feel very very strong about both, but doing some more research on the undercard fights before putting any more down on them. I'm planning on making a big play on Nog, moderate on Davis and tiny bet on Maldonado as I like him a lot but don't really think he has a great shot. Probably see what the Anderson KO/round 2 odds come out at also.

[Mercersux]

I'm surprised Maldonado isn't getting a bit more love. While i think Texiera may have the slight edge, Maldano is one tough dude and should give him all he can handle. Only thing that sucks is body blows apparently don't score as many points as everything else in mma. I still think he's a live dog though.

[ShotgunRua]

I've been rewatching Maldonado and Glover fights this afternoon and I think I'm actually gonna make a decent play on Glover. I hate when a fighter is massively hyped after doing virtually nothing but this will not go well for Maldonado. He defense is not adequate for what Glover will be throwing at him. Glad I spent some time on this as I think this will be one of my major plays.

[Vaughany]

Didnt Kingsbu win tht fight because of takedowns and some brief periods of top control? Surely Glover can get Maldonado to the mat if Kingsbu can

[Rubber Guard]

Erick Silva is the strongest play on the board.

Hmmm, how can it be that the oddsmakers have it pretty even? Probably because he is a beast in the making and squares will be on Fitch...because of his name.

The UFC hates Fitch. They see a prospect in Erick Silva in a division lacking good Brazilian fighters. Hmm, they gave Fitch coming off a KO loss a upcoming Brazilian fighter...in Brazil? Hmmm... If they didn't think Erick matches up well why would they make that fight? They want Fitch to lay on an exciting prospect? Don't think so.

Also this is in Brazil. You think there won't be quicker stand ups?

Fitch is almost 35 years old. People need to get off names of the past. He has never had explosive TDs. He drags guys down and hold them. He got his ass whooped by BJ Penn an old 155er. Until BJ gassed like he always does. Silva is a legit WW, very strong. Very well-rounded. Very motivated to win this.

Erick Silva win probably inside the distance.

[Rubber Guard]

LOL that Fitch has better striking than Erick Silva.

On what planet?

[ShotgunRua]

Didnt Kingsbu win tht fight because of takedowns and some brief periods of top control? Surely Glover can get Maldonado to the mat if Kingsbu can

Yeah, not that I think he'll need to make that a priority, Maldonado's defense standing is severely lacking.

[Vaughany]

Erick Silva is the strongest play on the board.

Hmmm, how can it be that the oddsmakers have it pretty even? Probably because he is a beast in the making and squares will be on Fitch...because of his name.

The UFC hates Fitch. They see a prospect in Erick Silva in a division lacking good Brazilian fighters. Hmm, they gave Fitch coming off a KO loss a upcoming Brazilian fighter...in Brazil? Hmmm... If they didn't think Erick matches up well why would they make that fight? They want Fitch to lay on an exciting prospect? Don't think so.

Also this is in Brazil. You think there won't be quicker stand ups?

Fitch is almost 35 years old. People need to get off names of the past. He has never had explosive TDs. He drags guys down and hold them. He got his ass whooped by BJ Penn an old 155er. Until BJ gassed like he always does. Silva is a legit WW, very strong. Very well-rounded. Very motivated to win this.

Erick Silva win probably inside the distance.

yeah you are right, UFC probably do want FItch to lose and want to push Erick Silva...but these kind of situations have not gone to plan and been a surprise in the past

[Mercurial]

Also this is in Brazil. You think there won't be quicker stand ups?

You make an AWESOME point there. Remember the Mirgliotta stand-up on Vitor vs Rumble after the crowd started booing?

Also, I sometimes find it difficult to bet on fights where I haven't seen one of the fighters fight at least 2 or 3 times before, like Davis vs Prado. I know Davis is awesome but Prado ?

[Vaughany]

Yeah, not that I think he'll need to make that a priority, Maldonado's defense standing is severely lacking.

It is, but he's a lot less dangerous off his back then if he's standing...no-brainer if your priority is to win the fight