[govolz]

Machida
-325

Browne
-300

Anyone else on either of these?

[jjgold]

what is it?

[Mikeyanks23]

your avatar is sexy

your avatar makes me hard

hopefully thats you and you will come over and be my sex slave next weekend

[The Bet Master]

I'm on Machida. I think Rothwell could give Browne problems. Little early for this parlay anyways.

[Jesus Christ]

Ben takes out Browne in my opinion.

[AdamB]

I feel Machida is a very difficult stylistic match-up for Bader, and Machida should win that fight 9/10 times. In regards to Rothwell, it'd be worth waiting to see the weigh-ins before betting - if he comes in lean like his last fight, he could well give Browne trouble.

[scofflaw]

I feel Machida is a very difficult stylistic match-up for Bader, and Machida should win that fight 9/10 times. In regards to Rothwell, it'd be worth waiting to see the weigh-ins before betting - if he comes in lean like his last fight, he could well give Browne trouble.

Well said. I really like Machida over Bader and that will be my largest play of the night. I'll be waiting for the weigh-ins to see if I want to make a play on Browne/Rothwell. We'll see the lines close up a little if Rothwell shows up looking even better than his last fight. I do lean Browne to win this fight but I won't touch it at the current line.

So far I've parlayed Machida + Rousey. 100 to win 53.5. Might parlay Machida + Varner too

[Kaladarus]

I'd rather be on the other side for both fights. Machida has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights and his only win was against a 54 year old Randy Couture. Bader looks like he getting better and may be able to figure Machida out. If he controls the pace and stays all the way out or goes all the way in, he could get the decision. Rothwell is very tough and may be able to out last Browne or even give him trouble from the start of the fight. Browne has had problems with guys that have lasted past the first half of the fight.

[govolz]

I just don't see machida losing here... No chance... But I do agree the Browne fight is going to be a little closer. I went on a jumped on it just in case the public moved the line up... I think browne will win by decision

[Playmaker]

I like Machida myself but feel Shogun is a great bet over Vera at minus 345 ..Seems like the safe play for Fox

[Crassus]

I'd rather be on the other side for both fights. Machida has lost 3 out of his last 4 fights and his only win was against a 54 year old Randy Couture. Bader looks like he getting better and may be able to figure Machida out. If he controls the pace and stays all the way out or goes all the way in, he could get the decision. Rothwell is very tough and may be able to out last Browne or even give him trouble from the start of the fight. Browne has had problems with guys that have lasted past the first half of the fight.

Rothwell and Machida are good bets.

Bader is the best match-up for Machida, a slow plodding wrestler with not the best takedowns and a very simplistic stand up. Machida isn't going down and he will pick Bader apart standing. Bader's got a chance sure, but I'd play Machida.

I like Rothwell at + odds against Browne. Browne barely beat Kongo (iirc) and Rothwell has a much stronger chin as well as better punching power. He looked awesome against Schaub and I'd he has a good chance of beating him.

[Jesus Christ]

Rothwell and Machida are good bets.

Bader is the best match-up for Machida, a slow plodding wrestler with not the best takedowns and a very simplistic stand up. Machida isn't going down and he will pick Bader apart standing. Bader's got a chance sure, but I'd play Machida.

I like Rothwell at + odds against Browne. Browne barely beat Kongo (iirc) and Rothwell has a much stronger chin as well as better punching power. He looked awesome against Schaub and I'd he has a good chance of beating him.

Browne basically lost to Kongo but came away with a draw cause of a point deduction...and I agree I think Rothwell is an awesome play at the current odds.

[gabe]

Browne basically lost to Kongo but came away with a draw cause of a point deduction...and I agree I think Rothwell is an awesome play at the current odds.

Let me ask you this, let's say you can get both fighters at even money, who would you take? Browne for +100 or Rothwell for +100?

[bogbat]

Browne basically lost to Kongo but came away with a draw cause of a point deduction...and I agree I think Rothwell is an awesome play at the current odds.

lol Kongo blatantly cheated that entire fight. He was lucky he didn't get 2 or 3 point deductions.

[Jesus Christ]

Let me ask you this, let's say you can get both fighters at even money, who would you take? Browne for +100 or Rothwell for +100?

Personally I have this at -150 for Browne so at the current numbers I will bet Rothwell...if hypothetically I could get Browne at evens, yes I would bet him.

[Jesus Christ]

lol Kongo blatantly cheated that entire fight. He was lucky he didn't get 2 or 3 point deductions.

I'm not arguing that..but truth is Travis won the first round then faded the rest of the fight and was a 29-28 decision for Kongo without the deduction..I was very happy to see Kongo finally get deducted for his cheating whether it be holding the shorts, cage, or kneeing someone's balls into next week.

[bigjah15]

Machida will not be taken down therefore machida wins

[illmatick]

Personally I have this at -150 for Browne so at the current numbers I will bet Rothwell...if hypothetically I could get Browne at evens, yes I would bet him.

-150? How?

Even though he faded a bit against Broughton, I think he's done a much better job at pacing himself since that Kongo fight-- a lot less wasted motion in his footwork and feints. I think he was just trying to overly showcase his Dominick-Cruz-footwork in that first round with Cheick.....similar example would be Mike Easton's first round against Byron Bloodworth. Since those fights, they've both abandoned that bullshit to an extent .

That said, I could still see there being value on Rothwell by submission, might be able to score a takedown late in the fight.

[JerseyRobby]

Ben Rothwell was in great shape but how much of that performance was his training and how much of it was just Schaub having a glass chin. The fact that the fight was so short kind of hurts when grading his striking improvements. While Ben has always been a striker he has never been an explosive one punch KO guy but if you watch Schaub he pretty much makes all people look like a one punch KO guy. When anybody touches his chin he folds up like a lawn chair in hi-light reel fashion.

[GunShard]

You should watch full fight videos of Machida and Bader's past fights.

Bader is a wrestler, look for Machida footage on his takedown defense and how he defends against it. Remember when Ortiz did a triangle choke against Machida? You have to consider if Bader will do that to him.
Machida is a striker, look for Bader footage on how he dodges and absorbs opponent strikes and how he fights back.

That's how I analyze videos as well as other factors not mentioned.

[Crassus]

You should watch full fight videos of Machida and Bader's past fights.

Bader is a wrestler, look for Machida footage on his takedown defense and how he defends against it. Remember when Ortiz did a triangle choke against Machida? You have to consider if Bader will do that to him.
Machida is a striker, look for Bader footage on how he dodges and absorbs opponent strikes and how he fights back.

That's how I analyze videos as well as other factors not mentioned.

Has Bader ever attempted a submission? I can't really remember a fight where he has. I also haven't done much research into it but Bader's had...serviceable striking at best.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Has Bader ever attempted a submission? I can't really remember a fight where he has. I also haven't done much research into it but Bader's had...serviceable striking at best.

Against Marrero, he went for a kimura, an armbar, and an arm triangle.

[Crassus]

Browne basically lost to Kongo but came away with a draw cause of a point deduction...and I agree I think Rothwell is an awesome play at the current odds.

WOO! JC agreed with me. **** yeah!

Against Marrero, he went for a kimura, an armbar, and an arm triangle.

Well color me shocked.

Ben Rothwell was in great shape but how much of that performance was his training and how much of it was just Schaub having a glass chin. The fact that the fight was so short kind of hurts when grading his striking improvements. While Ben has always been a striker he has never been an explosive one punch KO guy but if you watch Schaub he pretty much makes all people look like a one punch KO guy. When anybody touches his chin he folds up like a lawn chair in hi-light reel fashion.

Fair point. But, Ben Rothwell being in crazy good shape would beat Travis Browne at this point. Browne is good don't get me wrong but Big Ben Rothwell is a bad bad man. Not to mention this will be one of the first times Browne is facing a dude roughly as strong and big as him, who won't get bullied.

[scofflaw]

Also on the parlay subject... Not Henderson by Decision is a freebie @ -1800 if you don't mind your money being tied up that long

[Vaughany]

Also on the parlay subject... Not Henderson by Decision is a freebie @ -1800 if you don't mind your money being tied up that long

lol

[Vaughany]

lol

Meant to "lol" at Gunshards Bader triangle comment and not tht Henderson one!

[Vaughany]

Against Marrero, he went for a kimura, an armbar, and an arm triangle.

Bader also beat Kingsbu by arm-triangle to get in to the house on TUF...nonetheless...he aint subbing Machida!

[v1y]

Remember when Ortiz did a triangle choke against Machida? .

clearly a pressing question in analyzing this fight.