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Diaz @ +180 and Hendricks at @ + 110....
I was thinking of laying down a couple units on Hendricks and Diaz at the odds listed. I already put one down on Hendricks, but I am not as confident in Diaz. Miller is a beast, and I could see a fight resembling the McDonald fight.. Thoughts on both of the fights...?
I'm on both. I think next week is going to be a BIG NIGHT for the dogs.
Both are fighting exactly the kind of guys that give them problems. I'll probably go the direct opposite.
I'm playing Diaz, but I'm going with Koscheck. Koscheck has shown pretty good fight IQ and definitely knows how to look for the win. I see this fight being fairly close on the feet, but Koscheck will likely get a couple strong double legs to edge it out.
I def. think Kos could wrestle-F__K Hendricks for three rounds for a UD, but I thought Fitch was going to do that and he flash KOed him. Do you think the Diaz line will get better than +180, or could you see the line moving back towards even?Originally Posted by Oblivian
I like Koscheck to win here by decision. Think it has the best value of any other play. Getting Hendricks at +money is a decent play as well though. For me this isn't really one of those fights I'm looking to go big on though. This could very easily end up in a split decision.
For the Diaz fight I initially liked Diaz. People on this forum have posted that the judges will likely have a bias for Miller in this fight. Miller is very tough to finish. While Diaz may get something going I don't think he finishes Miller often enough and wins enough rounds often enough to make a play on him. This isn't really a fight I would be looking to make much of a play on.
All that being said if I had to bet these fights I would take Diaz at the number and Hendricks at +money was a decent play.
I think the Diaz line will get a little bit better, but it's been moving around both ways. If I wanted to play him I'd take +200 if it was available.
Ya I agree with you on Kos, but I couldn't pass up Hendricks at + odds. If they were even, I prob would have played Kos. I still think I am going to play Diaz at +180. I like Miller at anything under -150, but at -220 ill take the underdog in Diaz. Thanks for your input.
you didn't get hendricks at + money, dummy... OH SNAP!!! He never got better than -110 on coast.Ya I agree with you on Kos, but I couldn't pass up Hendricks at + odds. If they were even, I prob would have played Kos. I still think I am going to play Diaz at +180. I like Miller at anything under -150, but at -220 ill take the underdog in Diaz. Thanks for your input.
Kos is my 'pick on paper' but this is a no play fight for me unless kos moves in the +120 range or better, then I might put a line on kos.. Only like johnny as a good sized dog, otherwise I stay away as I think he gets grinded to a UD. Really hard to call how this fight goes, don't understand why people are so high on it when there will prob be better plays once the rest of the lines are out and much easier fights to call.... And while johnny is the bettter striker, a lot of people on these forums are shitting on kos' stand up. While I agree kos' stand up is far from perfect, I don't think its bad enough and john's is good enough to where kos is at some significant disadvantage on the feet - he can def hold his own against john I think, but will lose most exchanges. If he comes in with a wrestle minded approach and utilizes what he's good at - wrestling with power singles and doubles - johnny is not gonna have many chances to get off on the feet and get the ko. Could def see johnny koing kos, but if kos comes with a grappling game plan and not a brawl, then it really will limit that ko possibility. Kos has openly stated he's focusing on his wrestling at his camp. If he fights smart he is totally capable of smothering john in the clinch and getting good tds here and there. This is such a hard fight to call it really is a coin flip toss up - its either a no play or a play on whoever ends up being the bigger dog come fight time...
And I know I've said it before and I'll say it again, Pierce arguably beat both kos and hendricks... I scored both fights 29-28 pierce (as did 2 of 3 sherdog judges in both fights), I know I'm biased as I had money on pierce in both fights, but I've rewatched them and he clearly beat kos although I could see the argument for johnny getting the w.
Anyways, I bring it up because its funny that handricks and kos are in contention talks when pierce arguable beat both these dudes... It sucks for pierce, guy is so underrated.
Like a 50 sprinkle on diaz if he reaches +200, sit on that one as I've been saying and wait to see where the line moves...
Hendricks opened at around +125
Bet Masta, you are correct. I got a unit on Hendricks at -110, not +110. I stand corrected, unintentional mix up.
Yo, are you going to touch Palhares at -280??? That is a no play imo, but I know you love Palhares, so I was curious...?
Maybe not on their site
I don't see any value in diaz.
Miller is the type that beats diazs...scrappy wrestler that can defend the sub. Miller won't be in the pocket in diaz's punching range. It will go down to the ground right away. diaz has no takedown defense and his kimura defence won't work on miller. Bottom line: miller will be on top most of this fight, diaz won't get the sub or sweep. The few moments on the feet...diaz isn't explosive or powerful enough to put miller away
How do you guys see diaz winning?
I have never seen a diaz keep it on their feet when someone wants them down.
I'll discuss this in the main event thread.... but yes, liking him A LOT more than initially planned after I've done some thorough research last night...
BTW, stick with that johnny play. I'm not trying to scare anyone out of that...Its a solid play if you're not going too heavy.
I can't call that fight with confidence therefore I'm staying away (or play kos if he gets to legit dog status), but perhaps you and other johnny backers like Big Day see something I don't... At that price it really doesn't hurt, I wouldn't buy out, I would stick with it just don't go too heavy / put much more down. I agree with the arguments made for hendricks, I just like the arguments for kos more I guess.
I know I was just busting Dirty's little dirty balls, we have the same account / book... He had a typo and put +110 for hendricks when I think he meant -110, as I never saw johnny get better than -110 on our site.
On 5 dimes? Possibly as it's a bit higher on other books. I have a hard time predicting line movement unless it's obvious, and it's pretty tough in general with the Diaz brothers. I think a lot of people see the potential for Miller winning this, but I think the 5 round aspect is throwing a loop in it.
Whats everyones thought on Sell in May? Should I take my moneys out and put it on JDS?
Man I totally spaced on the fact that this is a five round fight... I think I like Diaz more now. Think I am going to throw at-least half a unit on him at +180.
Pete Sell?!
"sell in may and go away."
There seems to be some investors in here or people smart enough to make some coin in the stock market and I am just trying to see popular opinion since this is an election year.
*cough Nunya cough*
Ahh... "Stay away till St. Ledgers day"...I get ya! I read somewhere that markets generally do well in the summer of a presidential year? where u at Nunya
Why does 5 rounds favour diaz? Do you expect miller to fade? Does he ever fade?
No, but I think Miller fades before Diaz does. Diaz has better cardio and will have the edge in the later rounds imo. Miller has never gone five rounds with anyone. I think he was well on his way to gassing against Bendo and Maynard, had those fights been five rounders. The longer the fight goes, the more of an advantage I give to Diaz, with his peppering punches and superior cardio. Could be wrong though.
maynard was too long ago, and bendo he was sick.
so you cant really tell.
will diaz have better cardio? yes.
will it be the different between a W and a L? not as much as everyone thinks IMO
Diaz has improved more than a lot of people expect.
Whatever the excuse is, Miller was fading in those fights. Diaz is going to do a lot better than people think, watch it happen. I got Diaz via UD. Miller takes the first two rounds, and Diaz takes rounds 3-5 via Cardio, Heart and sheer tenacity...
I don't expect miller to exert himself like it was necessary against strong wrestlers in bendo and maynard
yeah, Bocek, Maynard and Bendo very different kind of fighters...they actively looked to grapple with Miller and take it to the mat which is more exerting, Diaz most likely wont look to do tht and even if he did he probably wouldnt be able to. Miller actually dropped Hendo in the second round with a counter hook as well
Yes very true, as Diaz isn't a stud wrestler. Didn't think of it from that perspective.. I still think Miller's gas tank is suspect and at +200, I will gamble on the younger Diaz. Miller is the favorite as he should be.
I have seen nothing from diaz to indicate that he will remain up right and land his punches.
I think he will be taken down quite easily and miller will win being on top
Certainly cant knock a play on Diaz at +200.
I def. could see that happening early on in the fight. I see Miller winning the early rounds, but I don't see him finishing Diaz. Diaz has improved more than people are realizing. He is bigger than he has ever been, and I doubt Miller throws him around like McDonald did. If McDonald couldn't pound out Diaz and finish him, then Miller won't. I think Diaz will out point Miller in the later rounds for the Decision win and make a statement just like he did against Cerrone. He will be ranked in the top ten if he defeats Miller.
Diaz is still at +180 on my book.. I am waiting to make a play, hoping the line will go to +200 like it is on other sites. You think it will move back towards even and I should hit it at +180, or waiting might be a wise move?
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