1. 03-28-12 04:46 PM #36
    bogbat
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    *yawn* This long UFC break is killing me.
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  2. 03-28-12 04:51 PM #37
    Vaughany
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    ha same
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  3. 03-28-12 04:56 PM #38
    Vitooch
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    O come on, Bellator has been great. Curran demolishing Warren, Rodgers's flying knee KO, Woodard's sub, Lozano/Amoussou is going to be great, Lima might KTFO Askren next week....
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  4. 03-28-12 05:09 PM #39
    Vaughany
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    yeah great to watch, but not great to bet on seeing as there are only 5 fights and no props
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  5. 03-28-12 05:12 PM #40
    Vaughany
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    Sportsbook have released Smith and Rickels at -115 each
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  6. 03-28-12 05:14 PM #41
    Vitooch
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    O ya I agree with that. But solely from a MMA fan's perspective, we re not that bad off.
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  7. 03-28-12 05:15 PM #42
    Vaughany
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    Not at all
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  8. 03-28-12 05:15 PM #43
    Vitooch
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    I wish they moved TUF to Wednesday or Thursday night also.
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  9. 03-28-12 05:18 PM #44
    Vitooch
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    Sportsbook have released Smith and Rickels at -115 each
    I guess the books are watching us. Still think Rickels should be in the -140 range. Really glad I nabbed Rickels at +140. Jury is -290 on Sportsbook lol.
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  10. 03-28-12 06:16 PM #45
    PunisherIND
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    yeah great to watch, but not great to bet on seeing as there are only 5 fights and no props
    5d had props for curran-warren and prindle-silva ii. I was hoping they would continue but apparently not. Maybe they will offer em for certain events. Askren-lima would be nice.
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  11. 03-28-12 07:30 PM #46
    Hannibal
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vitooch View Post
    I guess the books are watching us. Still think Rickels should be in the -140 range. Really glad I nabbed Rickels at +140. Jury is -290 on Sportsbook lol.
    You are an idiot. The lines adjust according to where the money is going.

    Rickels is +156
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  12. 03-28-12 07:48 PM #47
    Grabaka
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    yeah great to watch, but not great to bet on seeing as there are only 5 fights and no props
    Woodard was +290
    Curran ITD was -120
    Rogers was +150
    Corey was +235
    Michel was +150
    I cant agree with you on this one. These were good dogs and plenty people cashed them at sbr. I know i did. I was so depressed because i didnt enjoy that much last season of bellator (specially betting wise) but im over the moon with it lately. Lets do it people!
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  13. 03-28-12 08:56 PM #48
    Vitooch
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hannibal View Post
    You are an idiot. The lines adjust according to where the money is going.

    Rickels is +156
    I was joking around with the books watching us comment. How am I idiot again? I could assure you that I am a better capper than you are.
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  14. 03-29-12 12:43 AM #49
    Libert1ne
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vitooch View Post
    I was joking around with the books watching us comment. How am I idiot again? I could assure you that I am a better capper than you are.

    I'm on Rickles too. Bit of a pickem so I'll take the +odds.

    Also gonna be on Amoussou but I'm waiting to see if the line improves for him as it has already as a small dog.
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  15. 03-29-12 12:47 AM #50
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libert1ne View Post
    Also gonna be on Amoussou but I'm waiting to see if the line improves for him as it has already as a small dog.
    Yep. Really surprised money is moving the other way on this line.
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  16. 03-29-12 01:37 AM #51
    Libert1ne
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    Bit the bullet.

    5u on Baker/Saunders parlay @ -130
    4u on Amoussou @ +140
    4u on Rickles @ +150

    Left Jury/Iaquinta. Probably won't bet unless Jury gets down to -200 or Iaquinta gets above +220 or so
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  17. 03-29-12 04:12 AM #52
    bogbat
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vitooch View Post
    O ya I agree with that. But solely from a MMA fan's perspective, we re not that bad off.
    That's true. The problem for me is since Bellator moved from Thursday nights many moons ago I have have had a hard time fitting it into my schedule. On the other hand, I can almost always free myself up on Saturdays for some UFC viewing pleasure. I used to love getting home and watching on a Thursday night and enjoying some weekday MMA action, now its just a fight here or there recorded on the DVR and half the time I already know the outcomes of the fights.
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  18. 03-29-12 06:49 AM #53
    illmatick
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    All over Jury here.

    These Bellator lines seem pretty spot on to me, though. Amoussou is the only play I'm even considering right now.
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  19. 03-29-12 10:53 AM #54
    MMAbetMASTA
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    Quote Originally Posted by illmatick View Post
    All over Jury here.

    These Bellator lines seem pretty spot on to me, though. Amoussou is the only play I'm even considering right now.

    Why do you guys like Amoussou???

    All in all, initially I was thinking Lozano was my fav pick on the card especially if I got him under -150... Right now he is pushing -175. Nothing really sticks out to me this weekend, would have taken saunders if he was ever under -250, but anythign over that is over valued imo, I'm still not sold on that guy and his fight iq. Would have loved to get miles at the opener, but now he is -270 on my site and I don't think I'm down to pay the juice on that...

    With regard to Lozano, he is a MASSIVE ww who seems pretty well rounded and the dude hits HARD. So is Amoussou he's pretty well rounded, but would you call him spectacular / better than lozano in any one area of the fight game? Also, Lozano's past comp seems much better...

    I haven't researched this fight too much - moving this week so I'm busy!

    Would appreciate any insight or feedback as to how you guys break this one down.....?
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  20. 03-29-12 10:56 AM #55
    Oblivian
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    I'll be pretty surprised if Saunders loses this fight. From the footage I've seen of Amaya, he's pretty sloppy. He stands very square, flat footed, chin up, and wild. I also think Saunders will be much larger than him. I see Saunders being better in the standup, much better in the clinch, much better on the ground, and probably better in the wrestling department due to size. I personally only give Amaya a small puncher's chance and feel -350 to -400 is more than fair.
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  21. 03-29-12 10:58 AM #56
    Vitooch
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    I think a Lozano/Amoussou is a no play at the current odds.
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  22. 03-29-12 11:18 AM #57
    MMAbetMASTA
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    Quote Originally Posted by bogbat View Post
    *yawn* This long UFC break is killing me.
    True statement...going through withdraws!!!
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  23. 03-29-12 11:28 AM #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vitooch View Post
    I think a Lozano/Amoussou is a no play at the current odds.
    Why, Vitooch??? Would love some insight / details as to why this is a no play for you...

    This is actually looking more and more appealing to me, I would have set the line myself at -200 for lozano. I did overlook that Karl is a massive ww as well, so I don't think lozano's normally large size for the division will be an advantage.

    However, I do think his wrestling will make the difference... I have yet to see Karl defend a td... He seems to get taken down at will when people have shot on him. Lozano is no champion wrestler, but it is his base and if other's got Karl down fairly easy, I think Lozano can. I think Karl has a more diverse striking attack, but its not the cleanest technique. They both hit hard, but lozano hits harder. I think Karl's leg kicks could prove the difference and give hiim an edge on the feet, but I wouldn't necessarily count out lozano if it does stay on the feet. Furthermore, I think if it doesn't work out on the feet he can definitely ground Karl. I could be wrong and could be putting too much faith in Lozano's tds and ground control, and I could be underestimating Karl's tdd, but as of right now this seems like a win / win fight for lozano. Also looking at their competition, Karl has lost to some some pretty 'meh' competition, although most were close split decision losses it seems (I could only read the alvey fight but that play by play seemed like a clear cut UD for alvey, not a split, but then again you can only judge too much from a written play by play), Lozano on the other hand has lost only to arguably the best two contenders for askren in BFC...

    Agree or where am I wrong?? Again limited time to research this one so I appreciate any detailed feedback guys!!!
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  24. 03-29-12 11:40 AM #59
    Oblivian
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    There are a lot of unknowns with Lozano/Amoussou. I think it's hard to cap, but I keep feeling it's around 50/50. Both have potential to knock the other out. If it goes to decision, I see Lozano either riding out top control or Amoussou winning through footwork and striking on the outside. I felt Amoussou was worth a play at + odds.
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  25. 03-29-12 11:58 AM #60
    Vitooch
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    I have a little breakdown in the other thread. Its not exaclty comprehensive and complete, just my thoughts on the fight. Reply in other thread.
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  26. 03-29-12 12:33 PM #61
    MMAbetMASTA
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    Right on thanks guys... Yea Oblivian I agree that my initial setting of -200 was overvaluing lozano... I now think that this will be closer than initially thought. I gave lozano too much credit for his past comp - while his two losses were against the two guys who imo are the best wws BFC has outside of askren, the rest of his comp is pretty 'meh' outside a couple dudes...Keep the discussion going - if anyone else has thoughts on this fight give me your insight / breakdown - I appreciate it!?!?!?!??
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  27. 03-29-12 02:31 PM #62
    Hannibal
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    this raul has some of the ugliest stand up i've ever seen
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIWWkHFaR2M
    he just comes forward swinging with his head straight up

    anyone have a feel for this grappling abilities? as a stocky guy it'll be difficult for saunders to work his rubber guard/omoplata from the bottom

    edit: he seems to be a decent wrestler with a respectable double and physical strength
    Last edited by Hannibal; 03-29-12 at 02:35 PM.
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  28. 03-29-12 03:15 PM #63
    Oblivian
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    I think his wrestling looks halfway decent only against subpar competition. He didn't compete past high school, and he wasn't a major standout there. I really think he'll look undersized against Saunders. Saunders should be a major step up in competition and I think it will show.
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  29. 03-29-12 11:12 PM #64
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    The Rickles line has worsened, glad I got in on him earlier. I don't think Smith should be a favourite here. It's close to 50/50 for me. I'm happy to take the +odds.

    Same with Amoussou. Very happy with making a play on him at +odds
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  30. 03-29-12 11:52 PM #65
    Vitooch
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    I think Rickels is a much better dog play. Amoussou at these odds are tempting and maybe worth a small stab, but would have liked to see him in the +170 ish range.

    Still think Rickels should be a favorite also. Gladly take him at +140
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  31. 03-30-12 02:53 AM #66
    Libert1ne
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    Weighin vid for the main event:


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d0fZ6BZOTY

    Amoussou looks freakin shredded @ 170. Size wise they're very similar. I wonder how his strength in the clinch will be at 170.
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  32. 03-30-12 02:58 AM #67
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    Highlight of Amoussou, showing some of his slick jits (sweeps and subs) GnP and kicks
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  33. 03-30-12 03:12 AM #68
    Vitooch
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    Very impressed at how quickly Amoussou gets into dominant postitions on the ground with that crushing strength in the clinch and on top. Amoussou may be a beast at 170, but also may face some cardio issues from his first cut to 170. We saw how Lozano took advantage of Weedman gassing in the second and third round of their fight. Looking forward to this fight and leaning towards a play on the Psycho.
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  34. 03-30-12 09:02 AM #69
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    Rickels is the dog because he's giving up a lot of size to Smith. Rickels has said that he is basically a 155 fighting at 170 because Bellator wants him to, and Smith is pretty big for the division. Rickels weighed in at 168 which probably means he didn't cut anything.

    If Smith uses his size he can have a real advantage clinching against the cage ect. but he probably wont because he is a moron. Although he has become a little more "tactical" since getting kayoed by Mckenzie.

    Here is the video where Rickels talks about his weight.

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  35. 03-30-12 10:03 AM #70
    rocky mattioli
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vitooch View Post
    I'm not sure Jordan Smith fighting marginally better competition is a major factor. I'm sure if Rickels fought those mentioned fighters he would give them an equal amount of trouble.
    i agree with v...i think smith`s competition is a little more than "marginally" better....but i admittedly don`t recall watching either guy live....i`ve seen them on youtube.....i`m impressed with rickels` "balls to the wall" style,though...matter of fact,both guys like to bring it......i think theres a real chance this ends quickly....

    smith looks the bigger guy....and he`s a lefty(not a small consideration for guys that are used to fighting orthodox opponents,imo)....but he seems almost too willing to get into firefights....and as we all know,anything can happen in a crazy throwdown....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYIFkAH-zmI

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MneaH0I3Ttk

    this one`s gonna be fun to watch(while it lasts)...
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