[Eccocide]

I haven't had much time lately to be posting here, but I'm going to go ahead and start a thread for myself to track my plays. Instead of making a new thread for each event, I'll post my plays here and the reasoning behind them if I have time. I'm actually doing this so I can track and summarize how I'm doing. Anyway, here we go.

UFC 109:

Some of these lines are stale so I apologize. This is another reason I wanted to have a running thread instead of making a new one with writeups for each event. Now I can post the plays as I make them at the price I get them.

Paulo Thiago (+185) 3 units to win 5.55 units

This is my favourite play of the night. I think Swick is getting way too much credit in this fight, some due to name recognition. He will be the faster and more crisp of the 2 on the feet, but I don't think he will be able to avoid the ground for the entire fight. Once it does go to the floor, I definitely see Thiago controlling the positioning and having a good chance to pull off a submission to finish the fight. Even if it does stay standing, Thiago has shown that he has a solid chin, and Swick hasn't been able to replicate the power he had at 185. Although Thiago is somewhat green in the standup game, I can definitely see the improvement fight over fight.

Matt Serra (-120) 3.6 units to win 3 units

Trigg hasn't been an elite level fighter for sometime and I really don't know what he's doing in the UFC. I don't see what threat he can pose to Serra. He has 1 TKO win over the last 5 years and he is obviously outclassed if this fight happens to go to the ground. The only thing Trigg has going for him in this fight is his size, although I believe Serra has the power advantage. Overall, I think this fight is Serra's to lose.

Mark Coleman (+340) 0.75 unit to win 2.55 units

This play is based purely on value. I think Couture should be a decent sized favourite in this fight, but this price is out to lunch IMO. What advantages does Randy have to make him this big of a favourite? How much is really left in his tank? I guess we'll find out, but anytime I can get these kind of odds on 2 similar fighters I'll take my chances. Couture's biggest strength in this fight will be his cardio. I think if Coleman can pace himself, and has actually taken his training camp seriously, he has a solid chance of winning a decision.

2 Fight Parlay: Marquardt/Davis (-125) 3 units to win 2.4 units

I missed the boat on both of these plays at the opening lines so I decided to go ahead and parlay them. I think both guys have a definitive advantage in their fights so I'm not too worried about the added risk of the parlay. Marquardt is going to roll over Sonnen and Davis will have no problem getting Stann to the ground and GnP'ing him out.

Dan Miller (+310) 0.5 units to win 2.05 units

Shot in the dark here. You never know how a guy will respond coming off his first loss, nevermind the nasty KO that Maia experienced. Miller is experienced on the ground and has sound enough wrestling to hopefully keep this fight standing for a while. I'll go small here and hope for the best.

UFC 109 Recap:
Paulo Thiago (+185) 3 units to win 5.55 units
Matt Serra (-120) 3.6 units to win 3 units
2 Fight Parlay: Marquardt/Davis (-125) 3 units to win 2.4 units
Dan Miller (+310) 0.5 units to win 2.05 units
Mark Coleman (+340) 0.75 unit to win 2.55 units

[illmatick]

good to see you around Ecco, bunch of guys have migrated to gamelive.com, bread sends you an open invitaion

[The HOFF]

Yeah where the F have you been?

I like the Serra play.

[Eccocide]

I got a new job so I was in the moving transition to a new city, etc etc. Glad to be back!

Ya I missed that who Bread fiasco, not sure what happened lol. I'll check that site out though!

[JohnGalt2341]

Nice analysis although I don't agree with your picks entirely. Especially the Maia vs Miller pick. Miller is a pretty good fighter but he's not a KO artist. I don't think Miller has any chance of beating Maia unless he can get the KO, and with only 1 KO on his resume I seriously doubt that that will happen. I like Maia via Triangle choke in the 1st or 2nd round.

I agree that Coleman is a good value at +340 but I think Randy's work ethic will be too much for Coleman to keep up with, and the longer the fight goes the worse off Coleman will be. Randy by Unanimous decision.

[Eccocide]

Nice analysis although I don't agree with your picks entirely. Especially the Maia vs Miller pick. Miller is a pretty good fighter but he's not a KO artist. I don't think Miller has any chance of beating Maia unless he can get the KO, and with only 1 KO on his resume I seriously doubt that that will happen. I like Maia via Triangle choke in the 1st or 2nd round.

I agree that Coleman is a good value at +340 but I think Randy's work ethic will be too much for Coleman to keep up with, and the longer the fight goes the worse off Coleman will be. Randy by Unanimous decision.

There's a reason those are my 2 smallest bets lol. I never said Miller will KO Maia, but I do believe he has the advantage standing in terms of handspeed and diversity. My point was that he has a better chance in the fight if he keeps it standing rather than going to the ground. As I said, a small bet. As for the Couture fight, like I said Couture should be the favourite and will most likely win. But I can't justify the price on him at all. Think he's highly overvalued from a betting prospective here. GL with ur bets!

[JohnGalt2341]

There's a reason those are my 2 smallest bets lol. I never said Miller will KO Maia, but I do believe he has the advantage standing in terms of handspeed and diversity. My point was that he has a better chance in the fight if he keeps it standing rather than going to the ground. As I said, a small bet. As for the Couture fight, like I said Couture should be the favourite and will most likely win. But I can't justify the price on him at all. Think he's highly overvalued from a betting prospective here. GL with ur bets!

Both Coleman and Miller are up to +375 on Bodog. I have to admit that at those odds I'm almost even tempted. I will likely stay away from both of these fights unless the odds even out a bit come fight time.

[RobbReport]

like Nate, Serra and Paulo as well.

[Eccocide]

1 more play....like the price. Hopefully Guillard can keep it standing.

Melvin Guillard (+115) 1.5 units to win 1.725 units

[Eccocide]

UFC 109 Results:
3-3: +6.025 units

Marquardt stopped me from having a monster event, but I'll take +6 units any day. I didn't realize he wasn't going to gameplan or work on takedown defense. He looked lost out there. Other 2 losses were on my small heavy dog bets.

I'll be placing some UFC 110 bets soon.

[illmatick]

nice ecco, one of the few guys who turned a profit

fukin nate

[The HOFF]

UFC 109 Results:
3-3: +6.025 units

You Son of a Bitch. Come in off the street after being gone forever and then show everyone up with a great night.

Marquardt crushed all of my hopes and dreams.

[Eccocide]

lol well hopefully I can keep it going.

Couple booked for UFC 110. I'll do a little blurb later on why I like these plays but I wanted to post these now.

UFC 110:

Wanderlei Silva (-135) 4 units to win 2.96 units

Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units

Mirko CroCop (-135) 2 units to win 1.48 units

[Eccocide]

A lot of nostalgia on this card for me so I may get burned but these prices have came all the way to where I believe there's value in all of these plays.

UFC 110:

Wanderlei Silva (-135) 4 units to win 2.96 units

I'll admit, Wanderlei is my favourite fighter ever but that has nothing to do with this selection. If you match skill sets in this fight, I have a hard time seeing where Bisping can win. In the standup, Bisping has no power and Wanderlei has a great chin. Before the argument comes that Wandy's chin has deteriorated, look at how and who he's been knocked out by. Bisping will have the speed advantage and thats one area that he may be able to use to his advantage. If he can replicate his strategy that he employed against Leben where he jabs and runs, he could possibly pull off a decision win. Problem with that is Wanderlei is more aggressive than Leben and has a more versatile standing attack. I believe we will see more of the vintage Muay Thai from Wanderlei in this fight based on the training clips I have seen for this fight. As for the ground, Bisping has next to no takedowns and Wanderlei has solid takedown defense. I don't see this fight entering that domain. The only worry I have is that this will be Silva's first fight at 185lb. He had a hard weight cut to get to 195lb vs. Franklin so this is all new territory for him. However, I have watched and read a lot of interviews as well as watched a lot of his training videos for this fight and he already looks much leaner and adapted to the new weight class. He has said he has changed his diet and feels much lighter and faster and doesnt see a problem making weight. All and all I see Wanderlei ending this one either late in the first or early in the second via looping right hand on the temple. Good night Mr. Bisping.


Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units

I was going to try and stay away from this fight, but this line is way too hard to pass up. The experience differential alone is outstanding in this fight. Cain hasn't fought anyone close to the skill level of Big Nog and I think he will realize that early in this one. Obviously as we know Cain is a great wrestler. However, how willing will he be to sit in Rodrigo's guard for 3 rounds fending off submission after submission? Cain hasn't developed the power nor the GnP skills to finish off fighters let alone someone who can take as much punishment as Nog. IMO I think Cain is going to try and avoid this scenario, at least early in the fight. So if this fight does stay standing early, I think Cain is once again outclassed by Nog's boxing. Cain is still green in the standup game, while Big Nog has shown repeatedly that he is no slouch on the feet. He may not be the caliber of boxer his brother is, but he has the technique and power in his hands to earn the edge pretty decisively in this one. In the end I see Nog either winning a decision or pulling off a late submission.

Mirko CroCop (-135) 2 units to win 1.48 units

This is probably the most volatile bet of the 3. Mirko has shown nothing since he has came to the UFC. He has looked severely one dimensional and uninterested in his fights. But no matter how far past his prime he is, Ben Rothwell is not exactly a top-flight contender. Rothwell is also very one-dimensional standing. He does have some power in his hands, but his technique is very sloppy and his striking is very slow and lethargic. This is one fight where I do believe Mirko will have a significant speed advantage even at this stage of his career. Ben also tends to keep his hands pretty low so I believe there is still a chance we could see a vintage high kick from Mirko. He was extremely tentative to through it in his last fight vs. JDS but I believe that had a lot to do with the threat of the takedown that he won't have to worry about as much in this one. One last thing I would like to point out about Mirko is that he has totally changed up his training camp for this fight. Instead of training with friends and partners he has been with for numerous years, he spent some time with Ivan Hyppolite, a former Muay Thai champion who Mirko has stated has pushed him to places he hasnt been for some time. Hopefully the change in scenery will lead to a change in his octagon results.

I will prolly have a few more plays once the lines are released.

[Eccocide]

Lots of lines released today. Saw some I loved so booked em now. I'll post my reasonings when I have time.

UFC 110:

Brian Foster (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units

UFC 111:

Ricardo Almeida (-115) 5.75 units to win 5 units (my largest bet in a while for me - opened another account on a separate site to add some more on it)

UFC 114:

Antonio Rogerio Noguiera (-215) 3.5 units to win 1.65 units
Quintion Jackson (-135) 4 units to win 2.96 units

[terpkeg]

Was leaning on Foster as well.

Almeida also caught my eye being so close to even. I think he should be able to put Brown on back. Wanted to re-watch some fights there though.

Looks like you beat me to the Lil Nog line, i got -250.

BOL

[Eccocide]

Not sure if you are on Sportsbook Terp, but they usually open with some pretty soft lines and take some time to adjust. Lil Nog was sitting at -215 for a while even after I posted the play.

[Eccocide]

CroCop bet voided. Adding some more on Foster and Wanderlei. Like what I saw at the weigh-ins. Also a couple other small plays that i feel have value.

Adding:

Brian Foster (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Wanderlei Silva (-145) 2 units to win 1.4 units
CroCop/Bader parlay (+101) 1 unit to win 1.01 unit
Stevenson by 3 round decision (+212) 0.5 units to win 1.06 units

Just some quick thoughts on the last two. CroCop will not lose to Perosh and I feel Bader is going to use his wrestling to keep this fight on the ground and grind out a decision. I don't think he will go all out and gas if he sees an opening like last time. I see him pacing himself better and using top control to win this fight.

As for the Stevenson fight, I feel there's some good value in taking him by decision. I don't think he will be able to submit George and I think he will be cautious due to George's own submissions. This fight will prolly take part mostly on the feet for the first half of the fight and I don't think either fighter possesses the standup game or power to finish each other. So in closing, I see this going to a decision no matter who wins, and I give Joe a pretty large edge in controlling where this fight goes.

UFC 110 Recap

Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera (-105) 3.15 units to win 3 units
Wanderlei Silva (-135) 4 units to win 2.95 units and (-145) 2 units to win 1.4 unts
Brian Foster (+140) 1 unit to win 1.4 units and (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
CroCop/Bader parlay (+101) 1 unit to win 1 unit
Stevenson by 3 round decision (+212) 0.5 units to win 1.06 units

[Eccocide]

UFC 110 Results:
2-3: -.29 units

A Negative night but not by much. Hit my biggest bet of the night in Wanderlei. Wish I would have added more on Bader. Most impressive performance of the night for me was George S. I was thoroughly impressed by his wrestling as he handled Stevenson on the mat.

[Robyn]

Miss me, too?

[36mafia]

Miss me, too?

nice call on the g sot play

[Eccocide]

Miss me, too?

Robyn!!! Nice to see you around. You guys floating over here again or is there still some kind of war going on lol. What a night you had eh? Very nice. You got a little lucky with the Krysztof play but who's complaining??

[Eccocide]

Adding a couple more for some upcoming events:

UFC 111:

Jake Ellenberger (+133) 2 units to win 2.66 units

UFN 21:

Takanori Gomi (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units
Jorge Rivera (+220) 2 units to win 4.4 units

[Eccocide]

Forgot my longshot for some action.

Strikeforce Challengers VI:

Karl Amoussou (+330) 0.5 units to win 1.65 units

[ufcmma36]

Adding a couple more for some upcoming events:

UFC 111:

Jake Ellenberger (+133) 2 units to win 2.66 units

UFN 21:

Takanori Gomi (+250) 1.5 units to win 3.75 units
Jorge Rivera (+220) 2 units to win 4.4 units

May even add Struve... He tends too actually do pretty good against fat big dudes... You know dana white hates him big country.... Im going for struve,gomi,and rivera

[Eccocide]

I personally don't think Struve is a good play. His strength is in bjj and Nelson is better than him at it. Nelson is also the better grappler and striker, so I don't see many areas where Struve can win this fight. I will most likely have a play on Nelson in a parlay of some sorts.

[Eccocide]

Amoussou was a push due to the eye-poke. He was looking good in the standup until that point, although Prangley looked like he was about to go into full takedown mode.

Adding:

UFN 21:

Roy Nelson/Yushin Okami 2-fight Parlay (-165) 3.5 units to win 2.14 units

[Eccocide]

WEC 47:

Missed the opening lines on this event so I'm going to wait it out and see where some of them go. Lines might be a bit pricey so I may have more parlays. Only one parlay for now:

Jorgenson/Bowles 2 fight parlay (-135): 2.5 units to win 1.85 units

[Jrod124]

Digging that 2 fight parlay

[The HOFF]

I also think that is a pretty solid parlay. Bowles should have no problems.

[Eccocide]

Ya I'm pretty satisfied with that parlay. I see some money is coming on on Cruz but I just don't see it. I don't have time for much analysis for this card but Cruz's strength is obviously his standup but he has limited power and I think Bowles will be able to dictate where this fight goes. I expect a lot of takedowns and GnP throughout. I have absolutely no worries about Jorgensen. I don't see this fight going very long.

One more parlay that I am adding.

WEC 47:

Fredson Paixao/Karen Darabedyan 2 fight parlay (-107) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units

Paixao shouldn't have any trouble getting Buck to the ground as he is the far superior grappler - I expect a 1st round sub in this one. As for the other fight, I dont see Darabedyan having as much of an advantage as some cappers have been saying. Bart is a pretty well rounded fighter that doesnt excel in any specific category. However, Darabedyan should have a big edge in the standup game and I think that will be enough for him to take a unanimous decision.

Anyway, I'm off to Columbus....hopefully I'll be celebrating some winners as well as enjoying a great event!

WEC 47 Recap

Jorgensen/Bowles 2 fight parlay (-135): 2.5 units to win 1.85 units
Paixao/Darabedyan 2 fight parlay (-107) 1.62 units to win 1.5 units

[Eccocide]

Forgot to summarize my results for WEC (or lack there of lol).

WEC 47 Results:
0-2: -4.12 units

Hit one leg of each parlay. Karen was a big dissappointment. He was laying a beatdown but left his arms in pretty much the whole time. He was very sloppy and it was no surprise that he fell into a sub the way he was flailing. Bowles...well lets not talk about Bowles lol.

Adding a couple plays:

UFC on Versus 1:

Alessio Sakara (+120) 2 units to win 2.4 units
Gabriel Gonzaga (+260) 0.5 units to win 1.3 units
Kongo/Pierce/Miller (UFC 111) 3-fight parlay (-101) 3.03 units to win 3 units

I'm hoping to do some write-ups on my thoughts over the next couple days.

[ddream1]

looks good. goodluck

[Vaughany]

Kongo, Pierce, Miller parlay is a lock...im gonna add Pellegrino to it aswell. Also tempted to put 1 unit on Sakara.

[Vaughany]

BTW what odds did u get for Pierce? I havnt seen the odds for his fight anywhere yet?