Well I'm going to start tracking my picks so I can brag about my wins (and get ridiculed for my losses).
UFC 142:
0.5 units on Stout (+118) to win 0.59 units
0.5 units on Mendes (+220) to win 1.1 units
1 unit on parlay Pyle/Silva (-214) to win 0.467 units
0.5 units on Arantes (+188) to win 0.94 units
Maybe the UFC Countdown brainwashed me but I think Mendes' wrestling will be just good enough to steal 3 rounds from Aldo. I think Mendes will take zero risk and Aldo hasn't looked as incredible as of late.
I think Stout is more proven against top talent and will be as motivated as ever. I couldn't resist taking him as a slight underdog in this fight and may add more him later. I think home field advantage is very overrated so I don't really care about it being in Brazil. Only time I think it matters is travelling a long distance too close to a fight.
I'm staying away from the Johnson/Belfort fight. Waaay too many question marks. Beflort has unproven cardio, Johnson supposedly may have better cardio fighting at 185 but I don't think that's necessarily true. Belfort has quicker hand speed by far but Johnson has a decent reach advantage. I think right around even is the correct odds for this fight so I may make a play if either reaches +130 (unlikely). I think I'm more stoked for this fight than any other on the card.
Good luck to everyone!!!