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I Am Stealing Gabe's Idea and Creating a Picks Thread With a Wacky Title
Here are my plays for UFC on Fox 2:
Russow -155: Risking 50 betpoints
Michael Johnson +195: Risking 15 betpoints to win 29.25
C. Weidman -165: Risking 60 betpoints
Playing with betpoints (I am aware I am a vagina) because I've been on a bit on a cold streak. However, I would be making the same plays as if I was betting real money on the event. Once again, yes, I am a vagina.
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Chris Weidman is one of the most dangerous prospects in MMA. Excellent wrestling coupled with an impressive submission game is hard to find in the MW division. Let's not forget this guy is a big MW who is super athletic and strong. To see this skillset possessed by such a young fighter is very scary. This could be a showcase fight for Weidman, but he will be facing quite a challenge in Maia.
While I don't think Weidman will submit Maia, a world class BJJ artist, I believe he has a well-rounded game to overwhelm Maia. Maia may be making great strides in his striking and wrestling, but his ceiling for improvement and development is significantly lower than Weidman. Weidman will control where this fight takes and probably cruise to decision or possibly a TKO.
good plays
This is a great opportunity for Michael Johnson to establish himself as a solid young fighter who deserves a spot on the UFC roster. Roller is an aggressive wrestler with a solid submission game, but I believe Johnson's wrestling translates better to MMA mainly due his superior athleticism and strength. Johnson was unfortunate to have been matched up with two very talented BJJ guys, an area he is weakest in. This is a much more favorable matchup for Johnson. Roller is always solid, but beatable. And, at +195, I will take the dog Johnson.
One more, Russow.
Russow is a solid, underrated fighter. Don't let his less than impressive physique fool you. You can argue that his win against Duffee was a tad fluke-y, but he made up for it with a solid TKO win against a streaking Jon Madsen. He will be facing Olav Einemo, who looked pretty bad in his UFC debut against Herman. Among the many holes in Einemo's game, his cardio remains the biggest one I can recall. He made no indication he can put together a complete, winning performance against any mid-tier UFC HW. Look for Russow to cruise to a decision win.
Thanks gabe. Good luck with your picks tomorrow.Originally Posted by gabe
good plays
You, too. I agree with your picks, except I don't think Einemo could go 3 rounds. By the third round, he'll be so tired, a fly landing on him would drop him. I think if he makes it out of round one, Russow puts him away.
in honor of you:
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : MMA Martial Arts
Chris "All American" Weidman 1/28/2012 9:15 PM - (EST)
Money Line -150 for Game
Select #2 : MMA Martial Arts
Mike Russow 1/28/2012 7:05 PM - (EST)
Money Line -165 for Game
Select #3 : MMA Martial Arts
Michael Johnson 1/28/2012 5:30 PM - (EST)
Money Line +195 for Game
Amount : Risking 11.00 To Win 75.86 USD
Weidman will cash for yah.
I think my problem with my last few events is that I was more concerned with the "odds" and "value" of certain plays when i should have been more focused on picking winners.
Russow line dropped down significantly
Added:
Russow -128: Risking 25 to win 20
Added:
Cub Swanson +107: Risking 30
Added:
Weidman -140: Risk 28 to win 20
Perfect day for me. Best night of MMA capping in a while.
Summary of plays:
1. Russow at -155: Risking 50 betpoints
at -128: Risking 25
2. Swanson +107: Risking 30 betpoints
3. Weidman at -165: Risking 60 betpoints
at -140: Risking 28
4. Michael Johnson at +195: Risking 15
Tracking Record: 4-0 (+164 SBR Profit)
ha Shame it was only betpoints bro! Good way to practice and get back in to it tho
It's been a really bad last few events for me so glad to be back on track. Hope you also had a good night V
Solid plays. I was tempted to buy out of my roller play but ended up sitting on him at -165.
Never liked Roller. Seems like a guy who is trying too hard to be a Hendo wannabe who doesn't play into his strengths.
He could have finished Johnson on the ground but chose to try to knock him out with an overhand right.
First Play for UFC 143:
Josh Koscheck -245 (To win 150 Points)
This is awesome value IMO. Kos remains one of the best WW in the world. He will continue to pound on mid-tier fighters like Hughes, Pierce and Daley because his wrestling is some of the best in the division, if not the best, and he has huge power in his hands. Pierce has solid wrestling, but he will not be able to consistently stuff Kos's explosive and superior takedowns. He may choose to stand with Pierce also, where I also feel like he has a slight power advantage. He should really focus on his wrestling here though, as he should have no trouble cruising to a decision or maybe finish him inside the distance. He is the one fighter I am most willing to lay the juice on on this card.
Had a good week under a thread w/ my name in it and are continuing to post in it the following week... I don't blame ya, buddy!
P.S.-
Yes Gabe. Last week was the first event since I first started capping that I focused on picking winners. The events where I found little to no success were the events where juice, and "value" clouded my judgement.
This event I will continue to pick winners and accept that juice is very much a part of MMA capping. There can be tremendous value in any line whether it be -300 or +300.
I'm glad to have inspired you to make that parlay! Maybe you should do the same with my plays this week also. It'll be a tradition for us. Sort of like when I shit in my grandma's shoes every Christmas eve.
I'm thinking
Kos/Poirier/Nelson
Cool, I'll be on that.
LOL @ xmas line
Sad part is that it's absolutely true. Can't say she's not asking for it.
lol wow
I don't really do that.
haha
Laying the big juice again on another big favorite. I don't love doing this but...
Matt Brown -345 (Risking 285)
I don't see the love for Cope as a dog here. I'm going to fade him as much as in I can in the UFC, if the matchup is right of course. He looked decent in a very bad season of TUF. His best MMA win is a close decision win against Shamar Bailey. Even that win is inflated because Shamar Bailey is a one-dimensional can who has also found no success in the UFC. Matt Brown may have had his ups and downs in the UFC, but those downs were against the likes of Brian Foster, Stun Gun, Chris Lytle, all legitimate UFC level competition. Brown will seize this opportunity to get back on the win column. His win against John Howard, albeit not exactly in convincing fashion, is enough for me to take Brown against a fighter I don't consider of the UFC's caliber. Matt Brown will push a pace Cope will not handle.
Going to lay the juice again. I love this value...
Herman -222 (To win 150)
I see a major gap in skill here. Herman may be the less physically imposing fighter, but I like the Ginger here.
Starks was a fish out of water on his back.
2-0 so far.
Gotta love Jorgenson at these odds...
Jorgensen +190...(Risking 45)
I was leaning Barao since the odds were released but was scared away by the juice. I took value over who i thought was more likely to win.
Shoulda showed more patience and stayed away
The HOFF gave Vitooch 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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