1. #1
    The HOFF
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    TUF 14 Finale

    Lines out on Bookmaker:

    Jason Miller +160
    Michael Bisping -200

    John Dodson +175
    TJ Dillashaw -235

    Dennis Bermudez +255
    Diego Brandao -355

    Yves Edwards +180
    Tony Ferguson -240

  2. #2
    JMUplayer
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    I'd take a shot @ dodson @ +175

  3. #3
    v1y
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    i'll take a shot on bermudez. athletic wrestler and a huge heart. tough matchup for anyone.

  4. #4
    KushMoney
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    -355 Is pretty steep.

    here are two videos, updates of each fighter letting fans know how training has been going and who they've been training with.



  5. #5
    Mikail
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    considering a massive wager on Bisping. I also like Dodson @ +175, Diego Brandau is practically as close to a sure thing as you can get in MMA. I will work that into a few parlays.

  6. #6
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by v1y View Post
    i'll take a shot on bermudez. athletic wrestler and a huge heart. tough matchup for anyone.
    same here. he has never been knocked out. has a real solid chin and a great gas tank, which is diego's weakness. i am loving dennis at this price.

  7. #7
    rocky mattioli
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    brandao is 13-7 as a pro....somebody`s beating him(i`m aware that he`s fought at a heavier weight)....i think that part of his(and that akira character`s) effectiveness was their mouths and attitudes....in caraway`s case,it seemed apparent that he was beaten prior to entering the cage...

    brandao`s a bit wild and a little careless(because he`s cocky as hell).....that makes him dangerous if you aren`t careful(but it also makes him vulnerable)......just not sure that bermudez will be as mentally weak as caraway appeared to be.... unfotunately he doesn`t appear to have much of a sub game so he`ll either have to ride it out for the full 3 or win a firefight with brabdao(not the easiest/safest road to victory)......

    i can see taking a shot at +2.5....but not a very big shot...

    bisping/miller is 5 rounds?.....whoa....

  8. #8
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    this finale is heavy on cast members

    MAIN CARD (Spike TV)

    • Michael Bisping vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
    • Dennis Bermudez vs. Diego Brandao ("TUF 14" featherweight finale)
    • John Dodson vs. T.J. Dillashaw ("TUF 14" bantamweight finale)
    • Yves Edwards vs. Tony Ferguson
    • Johnny Bedford vs. Louis Gaudinot

    PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

    • Marcus Brimage vs. Stephan Bass
    • John Albert vs. Dustin Pague
    • Roland Delorme vs. Josh Ferguson
    • Josh Clopton vs. Steven Siler
    • Bryan Caraway vs. Dustin Neace

  9. #9
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikail View Post
    Diego Brandau is practically as close to a sure thing as you can get in MMA. I will work that into a few parlays.
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    has a real solid chin and a great gas tank, which is diego's weakness. i am loving dennis at this price.

    Tough to pick a fade here.

  10. #10
    proposition joe
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    Anyone thinking Brandao is a lock is stupid. Making plays on Ferguson and Bermudez with a small stab at Dodson.

  11. #11
    THE_LOCKSMITH
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    Quote Originally Posted by proposition joe View Post
    Anyone thinking Brandao is a lock is stupid.


    remember some TUF finales of the past

    TUF 9
    Damarques Johnson -340
    James Wilks +280

    Ross Pearson +210
    Andre Winner -250


    TUF8
    Efrain Escudero +300
    Phillipe Nover -360

    Ryan Bader +180
    Vinicius Magalhas -220

    TUF 7
    Amir Sadollah +145
    CB Dollaway -165

  12. #12
    TheCalculator
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    There's a good amount of lag time between the taped final episode and the finals. It's enough time to get together with a camp and make improvements. All these fighters are still in the development stage and can have significant surge in skills in a few weeks/months at this point. Plus all the fighting/training from the TUF makes their nervous system gel from those experiences.

  13. #13
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Tough to pick a fade here.
    Not really, just fade the guy picking the big underdog. (me) Better chances. =)

  14. #14
    Vitooch
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    Nothing to see here people. Plan on sitting back and enjoying these fights.

    Brandao may be too a steep favorite, but has looked too good for me to pick against. Remember Bermudez was in trouble a few times with Akira. Imagine the trouble he will be in if he can't take down Diego. I like Dillashaw to grind a decision but not enough to pick him, considering also how good Dodson has looked. I like Bisping also, taking into consideration his UFC experience and the difference in skill level I think exists, but the opportune Miller has a legitimate shot of pulling an opposite. Bisping usually gives his opponents a small window to beat him (see Dennis Kang), but, once again, not confident enough in either guy to make a play.

    I'll pass.
    Last edited by Vitooch; 12-01-11 at 03:10 PM.

  15. #15
    SATERSTYLE
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Tough to pick a fade here.
    Not really... it is quite shocking but gabe is actually right... i think the end of days might be upon us

  16. #16
    Vitooch
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    Quote Originally Posted by SATERSTYLE View Post
    Not really... it is quite shocking but gabe is actually right... i think the end of days might be upon us
    Yep, you would have to fade the dude who claims that Diego is as sure a thing you are going to get in the UFC. The line seems a little too steep for a fighter will be experiencing a sizable step up in competition. Caraway was too meek and conservative and Siler...eh, well you get the point.

  17. #17
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    Not really, just fade the guy picking the big underdog. (me) Better chances. =)
    Was just being funny. I maxed that line as soon as it opened, I would've hit it at a much smaller number to be honest.

  18. #18
    bjpenn85
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    which line did you max?

  19. #19
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by SATERSTYLE View Post
    Not really... it is quite shocking but gabe is actually right... i think the end of days might be upon us
    why is it shocking? i've made a bunch of spot on picks for you guys.

  20. #20
    sideloaded
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mikail View Post
    considering a massive wager on Bisping. I also like Dodson @ +175, Diego Brandau is practically as close to a sure thing as you can get in MMA. I will work that into a few parlays.
    Miller it is then. Did you ever show up to fight Mayan?

  21. #21
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    which line did you max?
    Bermudez.

  22. #22
    BIGDAY
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    I will be placing Ferguson in a few parlays at that price. I think he controls this fight and wears down the veteran.

    Should be a great night of fights.

  23. #23
    bjpenn85
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    Im a little bit surprised that ferguson opened up at that price. I think if this was last year, he would have opened up at evens. That nikos guy is brutally greedy at the moment. Every damn time i see the openers, i just sigh in frustration...

  24. #24
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    I will be placing Ferguson in a few parlays at that price. I think he controls this fight and wears down the veteran.

    Should be a great night of fights.
    I think El Cucuy wins by knock out.

  25. #25
    TheCalculator
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Im a little bit surprised that ferguson opened up at that price. I think if this was last year, he would have opened up at evens. That nikos guy is brutally greedy at the moment. Every damn time i see the openers, i just sigh in frustration...
    YES! Nick is squeezing our nuts. We NEED more action from Joey Bagels! He's the guy who opened the Vila/Dantas line.

  26. #26
    TheCalculator
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    I was able to score some action on Ferguson at -220 at BetFair last night.

  27. #27
    rocky mattioli
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    sportsbook has bermudez at +285.....bastards(lol)......i can`t resist taking a flyer....

  28. #28
    gabe
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    Quote Originally Posted by NunyaBidness View Post
    Bermudez.
    what's your max?

  29. #29
    v1y
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    **** ferguson's like -300 everyone, and 5D still hasn't put up a line. seriously making me consider depositing in a second book.

  30. #30
    TheCalculator
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    Quote Originally Posted by v1y View Post
    **** ferguson's like -300 everyone, and 5D still hasn't put up a line. seriously making me consider depositing in a second book.
    I agree. They missed the boat here. Thankfully I have a bunch of other books. Paddy Power already has props out on this fight.

  31. #31
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by gabe View Post
    what's your max?
    $250 on openers at bookmaker. Gonna add on bodog and sportsbook now.

  32. #32
    BIGDAY
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCalculator View Post
    I was able to score some action on Ferguson at -220 at BetFair last night.

  33. #33
    terpkeg
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    Lines out, real quick movement

    Clopton shot up to +185 from -115, which seems ridiculous to me. Moved it on me as I was locking in though, down to +170, now +150. I think he will be favorite.
    Last edited by terpkeg; 12-02-11 at 09:40 AM.

  34. #34
    v1y
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    clopton lost to neace (in a controversial decision). he deserves to be the underdog.

  35. #35
    NunyaBidness
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    Quote Originally Posted by terpkeg View Post
    Lines out, real quick movement

    Clopton shot up to +185 from -115, which seems ridiculous to me. Moved it on me as I was locking in though, down to +170, now +150. I think he will be favorite.
    Yeah, I got +150, I'm happy with it. Expected to get value on this line.

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