[Ewoi]

Hi guys, decided to start a thread for tracking purposes.
UFC 136 plays:
Jose Aldo (-325): risk 800 to win 247.94
Chael Sonnen (-255): risk 200 to win 78
Aaron Simpson (-301): risk 200 to win 66.45
Nam Phan (-203): risk 200 to win 98.51
Jeremy Stephens (+252): risk 75 to win 189

-Note: I used the current odds not the opening lines to be fair.
Pinnacle hasn't released ov/un odds yet so I will be adding other bets sometime this week. Probably betting Gray/Frankie over, Lauzon/Guillard over, and Pettis/Stephens over.

Breakdown:
- Aldo over Florian
I think Aldo is a better overall fighter than Florian. Jose has very sharp striking, excellent takedown defense and a competent ground fighter. Though his last fight showed signs of fatigue, I was impressed by his accurate punches dropping Hominick twice. He also displayed that he is a cerebral/smart fighter by exploiting Hominick's wrestling inadequacies. I think this fight will be contested mostly on the feet, with Aldo stuffing Florian's takedown attempts. Aldo should outstrike Kenny with his thunderous low kicks to set-up his powerful right hand. Since Kenny is a southpaw, Aldo will aim to punish his inside leg. Aldo should also be cautious if he decides to take it to the ground because of Kenny's elbows from guard.
Despite being known primarily as a striker, I think Kenny's best asset is his clinch game. He uses the clinch to deliver elbows and usually gets a takedown. I suspect that Kenny's gameplan will be to clinch with Aldo and try to take him down and get the top position. All in all, Aldo's accurate striking and TDD will prevail. I am not sure how but KO, sub or decision are all possible with decision being more likely.

[bjpenn85]

are you playing all of these straight up?

[Vitooch]

If you're going to bet on Chael Sonnen you might as well bet on him to win by 3 round decision at better odds.

[bjpenn85]

If youre betting on this card, you should first and foremost bet on melvin guillard. Aldo and sonnen faces decent adversity in their fights. Guillard has already shown that he can KO people that are better than lauzon, within the first round.

[Educ8d Degener8]

are you playing all of these straight up?

His risk to win would suggest that is indeed the case.

[bjpenn85]

i meant to include just in the sentence. at least i gave you some time to spend.

[Educ8d Degener8]

i meant to include just in the sentence. at least i gave you some time to spend.

Ah...

No need to get butthurt. Was just answering your question - You're the one that forgot a word.

[bjpenn85]

are you just playing all of these straight up? understand?

[Educ8d Degener8]

are you just playing all of these straight up? understand?

Yes of course.

The way you worded it -- I answered based on the context of his original post.

[bjpenn85]

No you stole someones answer you lying peace of shit. Just kidding. what are your picks this event?

[Educ8d Degener8]

No you stole someones answer you lying peace of shit. Just kidding. what are your picks this event?

Thus far, minimal plays...

I have Aldo closing out a fricking 2.5 month, 5 fight parlay [Saffiedine, Woodley, Tate, Barboza came through], and will hedge with Florian bet since the odds are nice there.

Regarding that fight -- I really like Aldo. I do understand all the respect being shown to Kenny here, so maybe need to revisit that one... I'll likely just let that hedged bet ride... without adding more on Aldo. Quite a few things going on there -- Aldo's seeming weight cutting difficulties, Kenny having now made a cut down to 145, etc. I may be underestimating KFlo here, but I just don't see him taking Aldo out. He is a savvy and crafty vet though, so will likely just settle up as-is with my plays on that one.


I like Maia as well -- I think he outclasses Santiago in all facets of the game, though the odds reflect that opinion I suppose... but honestly, I'll probably weave Maia into a bet(s) in some fashion.

I'm intrigued by a potential play on Lauzon. I know Guillard is the flavor of the moment 155'er but we've seen how many of those guys get derailed -- Dunham, Pettis, etc... And stylistically, Lauzon's strength is Melvin's weakness (subs). Admittedly, I'd like to review Lauzon's fights with Stout and Stephens to brush up on his stand-up, just to see if he might be able to weather a Guillard onslaught... Lauzon by sub at +515 has my attention though... Granted, JLau might have to slap on some fancy sub from a non-dominant position as I don't recall him having great wrestling, and Melvin's TDD and scrambling is sharp as a tack if memory serves me correct. Might consider straddling this one perhaps...

Lil Heathen is on my radar as a doggie play as well.

[Ewoi]

Hi guys, decided to start a thread for tracking purposes.
UFC 136 plays:
Jose Aldo (-325): risk 800 to win 247.94
Chael Sonnen (-255): risk 200 to win 78
Aaron Simpson (-301): risk 200 to win 66.45
Nam Phan (-203): risk 200 to win 98.51
Jeremy Stephens (+252): risk 75 to win 189

Aldo, Sonnen, Simpson and Nam all won their fights. Jeremy Stephens lost in a split decision in a close fight.
-Aldo/Florian went down as I expected. Florian had success early with the takedowns and pressure taking the 1st rd, but Aldo settled in after that with amazing footwork. I was impressed, I dont see anyone on the radar for him at 145. People are saying he should move up but I was surprised at his size vs Kenny's. Kenny looked bigger than Aldo, I think Jose can should pack more muscle if he wants to move up in weight class
-Sonnen looked amazing. He hasnt lost a step since Anderson, in fact I think he looked better with his Jiu Jitsu work (passing the guard and submission). I think he has the edge over Anderson on the rematch, seems like it's happening at superbowl weekend
-Simpson won by sprawl and brawl like I expected. Schafer had horrible striking skills. I'd like to see Aaron against top 5 competition, maybe Brian Stann.
-Nam had awesome hands. His boxing looked incredible. However, it was closer than I expected. Honestly, I hate Leonard Garcia as a fighter but he dropped Nam in the 3rd round and came close to finishing him. Very exciting fight for both fighters.
-Stephens was very game last night. He held his own in the striking realm but he initiated the grappling by going for the takedown early. I really like Jeremy but his style need to change soon for the new talent that his will be facing. He has an enormous amount of talent and athleticism but he is far too timid in terms of striking volume (he should throw more strikes and be confident on his abilities). But he still put up a tough fight. I think when Pettis busted Stephens' nose up was a turning point in the fight, it was apparent that Stephens couldn't breathe properly leading to Pettis outwrestling him. As for Pettis, I was impressed with the wrestling work, he did all the right things. I still think his best asset is his Jiu Jitsu, he had a sweep in the third rd that pretty much sealed the deal for him.

Overall amazing card of fights.
UFC 136 results
Jose Aldo (-325): risk 800 to win 247.94
Chael Sonnen (-255): risk 200 to win 78
Aaron Simpson (-301): risk 200 to win 66.45
Nam Phan (-203): risk 200 to win 98.51
Jeremy Stephens (+252): risk 75 to win 189
overall for 136= +$415.9
YTD: 4-1 +$415.9

I'm posting soon for the next event. I wanna post early plays so you guys can play it at the best line, just like this past card I think you had to play the faves early (had Aldo at -283). Good luck to all and I hope you guys did well too.

[Ewoi]

Posting early plays for UFC 137
GSP (-405): risk 650 to win 160.49
Nick Diaz (+103): risk 150 to win 154.50
Matt Mitrione (-133): risk 100 to win 75.19
Roy Nelson (-270): risk 270 to win 100
Tyson Griffin (-245) risk 220 to win 89.80
Dennis Siver (+195): risk 100 to win 195
-will add more plays when odds come out

Breakdowns:
-GSP over Condit: GSP's wrestling will be the difference in this fight. I don't think Condit has what it takes to stop GSP's takedowns.
-Nick Diaz over Penn: I think Nick's size and length will cause problems for BJ. Nick also has an unlimited gas tank and we all know about BJ's cardio issues. Nick's toughness and chin is also a big factor in case BJ clips him with a punch. I may add more units on Nick, I think this matchup suits well for his style.
-Mitrione over Kongo: I think Matt has the striking advantage, but Kongo can use his wrestling to take Matt down and GNP him. I just think Kongo is not what he used to be.
-Nelson over Mirko: Mirko is just pure fade material. He is no longer the same fighter as he once was. Nelson looked horrible with his fight with Mir but I think he bounces back strongly and knocks out Mirko.
-Griffin: I think tyson can be a force at 145. Bart impresses me with his boxing but he still has problems with strong wrestlers. Griffin by dec
-Dennis Siver over Cerrone: I really like Siver in this matchup. His standup should be better than Cerrone's, which I think where most this fight will play out. Cerrone doesn't really use his wrestling, and I think his striking is overrated. I may add more money on Siver later.

[Ewoi]

Boxing Play for tonight:
Chad Dawson (-137): risk $206 to win $150.36
- Bernard's career has been amazing. His fighting IQ and ring generalship has to be up there with the all-time greats. However, I think Dawson's youth, talent, speed and overall skill will be enough to beat Hopkins. Dawson has the length and speed to frustrate Hopkins. Add that Hopkins does not possess enough power to hurt the younger boxer, Dawson should win this fight.

[Ewoi]

Boxing Play for tonight:
Chad Dawson (-137): risk $206 to win $150.36
i

-Ugly fight, but a win nonetheless. Can't really judge a fight by just 1.5 rounds but Bernard looked uncomfortable in there, he looked 'old'. I think Dawson deliberately threw him to the canvas, as he was expecting the righthand-clinch from Bernard. I thought he could've continued but we'll never know, he is still one of the all time greats. Dawson .
-For the future, I like Dawson to take the rematch against Pascal.
MMA results: 4-1 +415.90
Boxing results: 1-0 +150.36
Overall= + $566.26

[Ewoi]

Bellator 55 plays:
-Eduardo Dantas (-253): risk 253 to win $100

I think this kid is for real. He fought well against Wilson Reis last time around. His muay thai is deadly as one would expect coming out of Team Nova Uniao. He throws some nice kicks and knees, but his boxing doesn't look polished. Meanwhile, Ed West from what I see has a TKD/karate background. He throws fast, chambered kicks but they aren't very powerful. He seems to be primarily a striker.
If this fight plays out on the feet, Dantas should have an advantage. One of his problems analysts often mention is his take down defense. However, he moves really well standing in a lower base. Also I dont think Ed West can capitalize on Dantas' weakness as he is not much of a wrestler himself. Dantas should win this one to move on to the finals of the tournament
On the other semifinal match, Vila should have an advantage everywhere the fight goes except on his back. His striking ability is very impressive and he packs a lot of power in his hands. However, I think he is one of the more under-sized fighters in this tournament. Galvao on the other hand seems to be one of the biggest. His wrestling doesn't seem too bad either. I think this fight is closer than the line suggests. His line should improve and I'll take it if it goes to +300.

[Ewoi]

Bellator 55 plays:
-Eduardo Dantas (-253): risk 253 to win $100 WIN

MMA results for posted plays = 5-1 +$515.90
Boxing results: 1-0 +150.36
Overall profit= +$666.26

-Dantas pretty much outclassed his opponent.
-Galvao kinda got robbed. He was getting the better of Vila in the striking department.
-I like Dantas over Vila for the final
-Mpumbu needs to add more weight. However, in a 5 round fight he would have won that fight.

[Vaughany]

Good job bro

[FlashinLeather]

fast start, keep it up!

[TheCalculator]

Keep rocking!

[Ewoi]

Thanks for the kind words fellas! Just can't wait on upcoming cards. This gap between UFC cards has been torture. I like Bellator but nothing compares from a UFC card.

[TheCalculator]

Thanks for the kind words fellas! Just can't wait on upcoming cards. This gap between UFC cards has been torture. I like Bellator but nothing compares from a UFC card.

I'm with you on that one...

[Ewoi]

Posting early plays for UFC 137
GSP (-405): risk 650 to win 160.49 PUSH GSP got injured
Nick Diaz (+103): risk 150 to win 154.50
Matt Mitrione (-133): risk 100 to win 75.19
Roy Nelson (-270): risk 270 to win 100
Tyson Griffin (-245) risk 220 to win 89.80
Dennis Siver (+195): risk 100 to win 195

Updating my plays for UFC 137
- Nick Diaz (+111): adding 150 to win 166 ---> Now 300 to win 320.5
- Mitrione (-125): adding 100 to win 80 ----> Now 200 to win 155.19
- I might hedge out my Griffin play if the line gets better

[TheCalculator]

Good to see we're on the same page. I think hedging Bart by KO/TKO is smart. That's what I did.

Updating my plays for UFC 137
- Nick Diaz (+111): adding 150 to win 166 ---> Now 300 to win 320.5
- Mitrione (-125): adding 100 to win 80 ----> Now 200 to win 155.19
- I might hedge out my Griffin play if the line gets better

[Ewoi]

That's what I was thinking too. Bart's boxing is very technical and crisp. Plus we've seen Griffin out cold, albeit it was against a very powerful Gomi.

[Ewoi]

Adding more units to some plays:
Roy Nelson (-213): 319.50 to win 150
Dennis Siver (+211): 100 to win 211

[Ewoi]

Summary of final plays:
Nick Diaz: 300 to win $320.50
Roy Nelson: 589.5 to win $250
Mittrione: 200 to win 155.19
Tyson Griff: 220 to win 89.80
Dennis Siver: 200 to win $406

For Bellator I like Jay Hieron to beat Askren. I am waiting for it to reach +450. I'll just play it now at +430 as I might not be able to post it here by that time comes. I think Heiron has a real shot of beating the former NCAA wrestling champ. Jay has been training with very strong wrestlers in Xtreme Couture and if he can keep this fight standing for at least 2 minutes per round, he can hurt Askren in that department. Jay is not a slouch wrestling wise too, he wrestled in Div 1 college as well. He has a ton of experience and has been fighting since 2003. Jay is worth a shot here.

Bellator 56:
Jay Hieron (+430): $100 to win $430