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ESPN Insider UFC 141 breakdown.
Don't be confused by the UFC 141 promo material; the organization hasn't suddenly entered the business of body building. On Dec. 30, those two 6-foot-3, 265-pound men are actually going to fight each other. And aside from their cartoonish physiques, they're actually two of the best heavyweights in the division. While the size of Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem will be the focus, their underrated skill sets, and the statistics to back them, will most likely be overlooked by many in the betting public.
In addition to breaking down the betting values of Lesnar and Overeem, here are some of the other inefficient lines going into UFC 141.
Donald Cerrone (minus-260) vs. Nate Diaz (plus-220)
Lightweight (155 pounds): It's hard to believe that this will be Donald Cerrone's fifth fight of 2011. Even more impressive, Cerrone seems to improve with each new fight. This fight against Nate Diaz should be no different, as the stats support the dominance that "Cowboy" has demonstrated in his six consecutive victories.
Not only does Cerrone land more strikes per minute than Diaz (3.37 compared to 3.03), but perhaps more importantly, he has greater accuracy, successfully landing 46 percent of attempts compared to Diaz's 36 percent. The same advantage is seen in the takedown game. Cerrone averages 1.65 takedown attempts per 15 minutes compared to Diaz's 1.47, but again, completes 48 percent of his takedown attempts compared to Diaz, who completes just 30 percent.
And though Diaz is known for his exceptional submission game, Cerrone possesses the statistical advantage in this area as well, attempting 2.97 submission per 15 minutes compared to Diaz's 1.89. If Cerrone can dominate in every aspect of the fight as the stats suggest, minus-260 is a cheap price to pay for the privilege of being on the side of such a heavy statistical favorite.
Insider pick: Cerrone
Jon Fitch (minus-230) vs. Johny Hendricks (plus-180)
Welterweight (170 pounds): Against any other opponent, Johny Hendricks would be a very solid underdog value play. The stats the former two-time NCAA champ from Oklahoma State has amassed in his nine-fight UFC career are very impressive. Most notably are his 5.08 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and his 3.15 strikes landed per minute.
Two elite wrestlers like Fitch (above) and Hendricks make this bout a tough bet.
While both stats best the average performances of Jon Fitch, Hendricks has not sustained these averages against the level of opposition that Fitch has across a much larger sample size of a career. Perhaps the best pound-for-pound opponent that Hendricks has faced was Rick Story, a fight he lost by unanimous decision.
Compare that to Fitch, a four-year letterer at Purdue, who has fought the likes of Georges St. Pierre, B.J. Penn, Thiago Alves, and Paulo Thiago, and it puts the statistical comparison into a clearer perspective. For that reason, the statistical advantage probably doesn't tell a very accurate story and thus doesn't possess much predictive value. You're better off enjoying this one without a betting interest on either side.
Insider pick: Stay away
MAIN EVENT: FIVE ROUNDS
Alistair Overeem (minus-150) vs. Brock Lesnar (plus-130)
Heavyweight (265 pounds): With size comes dominance, and both Lesnar and Overeem hold dominion in each of their respective specialties. While Overeem might have won the last K-1 World Grand Prix, the most prestigious kickboxing event in the world, Lesnar holds a much more impressive statistical accomplishment that tilts things (although not the odds) in his favor.
On average, Lesnar lands 4.08 takedowns per 15 minutes. To put that into perspective, St. Pierre, who is considered by many to be the greatest takedown specialist in MMA, averages 4.3 takedowns per 15 minutes. The difference between the two men is about 100 pounds of muscle and Thor-like hammerfists that have historically ended fights from the top position.
The caveat here is Overeem's ability to keep the fight standing, having successfully defended 76 percent of takedowns attempted against him. However, Overeem's past nine opponents have an average takedown per 15 minutes rate of less than one. While the 76 percent defense rate is impressive, it has come against opponents that hardly possess the wrestling ability of Lesnar.
Overeem might have the goods on his feet to take out Lesnar, but he might not be standing for very long, and the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Consider this fight to be one probable takedown away from cashing a ticket worth plus-130.
Insider pick: Brock Lesnar
Alexander Gustafsson (minus-350) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (plus-250)
Light heavyweight (205 pounds): It's no news that youth is an advantage in a sport as physically demanding as MMA. This fight will most likely be a demonstration of this fact, as the favorite Gustafsson possesses a 16-year age advantage over Matyushenko. In addition to the difference in age, what gives Alexander a solid edge in this fight, even as a minus-350 favorite, is that his fighting style matches up perfectly with Matyushenko's, to negate Matyushenko's strengths.
When it comes to striking, Gustafsson on average lands 2.85 strikes per minute compared to Matyushenko, who lands just 1.9 strikes per minute. Unless Gustafsson gets knocked out (which has never happened in his MMA career), "The Mauler" should be able to keep a favorable pace against Matyushenko.
Gustafsson should be able to outpace and finish the elder Matyushenko.
The strength of Matyushenko, on the other hand, is in his freestyle wrestling background. Matyushenko averages 3.33 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Gustafsson's 1.71. However, Gustafsson is known for his exceptional takedown defense, successfully warding off 88 percent of attempts against him. In the event Matyushenko does happen to take Gustafsson to the ground, Gustafsson also possesses a very active submission game, averaging 2.85 submissions per 15 minutes.
Since all the numbers point in Alexander's direction, you can feel good about laying down the minus-350 on this very likely favorite.
Insider Pick: Alexander Gustafsson
Ross Pearson (minus-260) vs. Junior Assuncao (plus-180)
Featherweight (145 pounds): Pearson drops to featherweight for the first time in this fight, but he remains a decent favorite for two big reasons. First, he's much better known, having won Season 9 of "The Ultimate Fighter." He also averages 4.34 strikes landed per minute all while successfully defending 73 percent of strikes attempted against him. Translation: He is very good at delivering a significant amount of strikes to his opponent while avoiding getting hit in return.
So why is Assuncao considered to have value at plus-180? Assuncao has a few statistical advantages. While Pearson maintains a very high volume in his striking attack, Assuncao has averaged a 63 percent striking accuracy rate compared to 38 percent maintained by Pearson. So even though Pearson might have a greater volume of an attack, the stats suggest that Assuncao is much more efficient in the strikes that he does throw.
The reason for this is Assuncao is very good at getting his opponents on the ground. He averages 2.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Pearson doesn't attempt nearly as often. In the rare occurrence when Pearson actually attempts to take a guy down, he does it with great efficiency, at a 78 percent clip. Keep in mind that Assuncao's two losses in the UFC were both by quick submission.
Also note that Pearson has yet to even attempt a submission in UFC competition. Given that Assuncao can challenge the one-dimensional Pearson on a number of different levels in this fight, Assuncao looks to be a good value at plus-180.
Insider Pick: Assuncao
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