[sirchadwick1]

Junior Dos Santos ( -165 --- 10u to win 6.06u)
will hedge with Carwin via (T)KO upon release

This is a large play for me because JDS has been on a roll and making me cash for a while now... Gotta keep going with him until he crashes... same w/ Anderson. I know Carwin could possibly wrestle him down to a decision, but I feel that's unlikely unless his gas tank has tripled within the last year. Carwin has a few question marks surrounding him, also including his new diet/shedding fat and muscle, and how it will impact his power. JDS has the better technique and is faster with his punches and I love his odds of catching Carwin with a big uppercut. But just to be safe I'm hedging this one with Carwin via (T)KO or I may go with Carwin KOTN if its a good line.

Maia ( +105 --- 5u to win 5.25u)

Maia is a beast. His standup continues to improve and when he's on the ground it's like rolling around with a boaconstrictor who won't let you go. I still don't believe Munoz has the better standup and his takedown setup is extremely telegraphed and sloppy in the octagon. And honestly I think Munoz will choose to stand w/ Maia as long as possible, considering his credentials. I expected Maia to open up at -200 so this was an easy call. If Munoz makes the mistake to grapple and tie up with Demian, he's eventually going to tap.

Weidman ( -200 --- 5u to win 2.5u)

I know we still have a lot to learn on Weidman, but the few fights I've seen of him he's looked very composed and his wrestling is very effective in MMA. Bongfeldt is legit, but he hasn't fought a wrestler the calibur of Weidman yet. I don't really feel this is much of a step up for Chris from Sakara and this match was set up to build him up so I couldn't resist the play.

Stout ( -115 --- 3u to win 2.61u)

This is a close fight and it may be hard for many to call, including myself. The main reason I threw down here is b/c I saw Sam at -115 upon opening at bodog and he was -140 at 5dimes and well, I really went w/ my gut. Stout is younger and has fought the tougher competition lately. Yves may have the edge in experience, but I wasn't all that impressed in his last fight against Cody considering his talent level. This will probably be another split decision win for Stout that will have some of us biting our lips as Buffer makes the call and possibly chugging our beers after the call. Either way, I like Stouts chances at this price. Or just bet straight up on this fight to go to a decision.

EDIT: Just added the following parlay (2u to win 1.83u)

• 6/11/2011 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 3 round distance* -460 vs Carwin/Santos goes 3 round distance
• 6/11/2011 6:00 PM Props Fighting 1503 Edwards/Stout goes 3 round distance* -175 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

I will be adding another play or two as the prop lines are released at 5dimes. Best of luck to all of you guys this weekend!

[xelance]

I like them all, good luck

[MMAbetMASTA]

Solid picks! How did you get weidman at -200!!!! I am tempted to still play him at the -300/-350 lines...

I highly disagree with your maia pick and breakdown though. Everyone will see that mark is by far the superior striker (and has power, something maia doesn't possess), and the fight doesn't hit the mat once unless mark wants it to... and if it does, it will be on mark's terms. Maia's subs in the ufc have all come within 3 minutes of the 1st round... People keep saying he can sub elite wrestlers by comparing his fight with Chael - that doesn't say much to me, considering we know chael's sub defense. Mark will be very powerful and more strong, and I think he will power out of an clinches on the feet or tangles on the ground with maia. Also gotta add that maia had grove and miranda on the ground for the majority of those fights and couldn't do much but control and pepper, they fended off all his sub attempts. Mark needs to survive early and keep it on the feet so he can bully and clobber maia. 1st round KO for munoz imo... One of us will lose on this one, and I hope its not me cause I will be broke haha! Either way good luck man!

I'm also thinking about a play on stout, but I just can't pull the trigger. Yves is hot and cold, but when he is hot the guy is a stud, hard to bet against such a veteran. But I'm very tempted and like stout in this one overall.

Cheers.

[Ladle]

everyone will see that mark is by far the superior striker (and has power, something maia doesn't possess)

He's more powerful and should be favoured in the stand-up on that merit alone. But far superior? Not really. Munoz is one of the most hittable high level fighters I've ever seen and Maia's striking has gradually improved over the years. He was good enough to out-strike Dan Miller.

and the fight doesn't hit the mat once unless mark wants it to... and if it does, it will be on mark's terms.

Not necessarily. Maia is one of the best in the world - only rivaled by Shinya Aoki - at deftly pulling guard when he can't secure a takedown. He pulled guard on Nate Quarry and Jason MacDonald and swept both of them.

Maia's subs in the ufc have all come within 3 minutes of the 1st round... People keep saying he can sub elite wrestlers by comparing his fight with Chael - that doesn't say much to me, considering we know chael's sub defense.

What evidence suggests that Munoz's submission defense is notably better the Sonnen's?

I think he will power out of an clinches on the feet or tangles on the ground with maia.

Munoz would be best to not clinch with Maia at all. Demian has no explosive first step, but once he gets to the body, he can finish a takedown, even on a high level wrestler (case in point: Chael Sonnen).

If it hits the ground, Munoz's ability to "power out" isn't going to get him very far against a grappler of Maia's caliber.

Also gotta add that maia had grove and miranda on the ground for the majority of those fights and couldn't do much but control and pepper, they fended off all his sub attempts.

Grove and Miranda also happen to be black belts. Munoz isn't. In fact, he doesn't seem to have much of a grappling game beyond winging haymakers on top.

Mark needs to survive early and keep it on the feet so he can bully and clobber maia.

Somewhat agree with this. Keeping his distance and occasionally closing the distance to clobber is his route to victory in this one.

[The HOFF]

I played Stout at -115 also. Edwards is getting to be too old.

[Kaladarus]

I'm with you on all your picks, hopefully it's a good night. Good luck.

[MMAbetMASTA]

He's more powerful and should be favoured in the stand-up on that merit alone. But far superior? Not really. Munoz is one of the most hittable high level fighters I've ever seen and Maia's striking has gradually improved over the years. He was good enough to out-strike Dan Miller.



Not necessarily. Maia is one of the best in the world - only rivaled by Shinya Aoki - at deftly pulling guard when he can't secure a takedown. He pulled guard on Nate Quarry and Jason MacDonald and swept both of them.



What evidence suggests that Munoz's submission defense is notably better the Sonnen's?



Munoz would be best to not clinch with Maia at all. Demian has no explosive first step, but once he gets to the body, he can finish a takedown, even on a high level wrestler (case in point: Chael Sonnen).

If it hits the ground, Munoz's ability to "power out" isn't going to get him very far against a grappler of Maia's caliber.



Grove and Miranda also happen to be black belts. Munoz isn't. In fact, he doesn't seem to have much of a grappling game beyond winging haymakers on top.



Somewhat agree with this. Keeping his distance and occasionally closing the distance to clobber is his route to victory in this one.

Sorry Ladle, I don't know how to quote line by line so I will go point by point to counter-argue. Love the debate, let's do it!

-Yes, far superior could be exaggerated, but there is no denying Munoz' hands have been looking better each fight. Since he brought in raf cordiero and this philipino boxing champ (forget his name, but he's pretty old skool) to refine his striking before he fought Atrain, he has looked really crisp. I'll say that Maia too, has also vastly improved stand up. I've watched the majority of both their fights, and i'm telling you I can really see the improvement in his stand up from his early wec/ufc bouts. He is wreckless at times, which might play into maia's game, but then again, I wouldn't be afraid of Maia's hands if I were Mark. I don't want to sound arrogant, but I think mark could fight with his hands down, that is how little power I give maia credit for. He can pepper, but he ain't got bombs. Mark will showcase his stand up in this bout and people will finally realize this guy has made vast improvements and is one of the better strikers in the division. Dan Miller I wouldn't call outstriking him too great a feat.

-Yes, I'd actually call maia one of the best, and considered aoki isn't an abudabi champ (right?), I'd say he is better than aoki in pure grappling. Yet pulling guard against quarry and macdonald are a different story than pulling guard against a D1 wrestler - let alone a fighter who is much more athletic and physically powerful than quarry and macdonald imo. Yes, his offensive wrestling hasn't translated well, but his defensive wrestling is solid imo (outside of catone, he has looked good in this aspect). D1 ASU captain A-train is a beast and munoz powered out of most hairy spots when they would clinch or scramble on the ground. Mark's clinch work can be dirty and if maia does get that close to pull guard I think he will be smashed with short shots from the inside or tossed aside. Obviously mark wants to avoid any close quarters / clinch game with maia, and will do his best to keep it at a distance so he can bomb away. I'll eat my words, but I don't think this fight hits the ground once unless munoz takes it there or makes a stupid ass mistake.

-MOst of sonnen's losses have come by sub (I think 9 of his 11 losses by either triangle or armbar only), and if you've watched him fight for a while, you know this. Furthermore, while I think chael is a great offensive wrestler, his defensive wrestling has always been questionable, as he has been taken down time and time again in his fights. While munoz has never fought anyone near the rolling ability of maia, he has never been subbed. While I don't think it says much, Munoz was rocked against grove, and while still in a daze he fended off sub attempts. I think its easy to see that munoz has better defense than chael... I also think his transitioning during scarmbles in his fight with Atrain was very pretty and showed his defensive grappling skills and ability to return to a favorable position.

-I agree that 'powering out' against maia might be far-fetched, but I see it happening (but again, I don't think it even gets to this point).

-Don't have a rebuttal for grove/miranda. I knew grove was a bb, but didn't know miranda was. I just think it says something that maia hasn't subbed anyone in a while, and the subs he did get were within the first few minutes of rnd 1. And not to discredit the guys he did finish, but I think there is a clear case of better competition as his time progressed in the ufc, and that may be a result of his lack of sub wins as of late. I'll say that subbing J Mac was impressive because I know that guy can roll really well.

I'll eat my words on this one, I normally don't act so confident, but I truly like munoz in this one. I think its lopsided, not as close as people are making it out to be, and I really can't believe so many people are picking maia. I'll say it again, 1st round KO for mark. Good luck to us both!

[Ladle]

Appreciate the response.

Yes, far superior could be exaggerated, but there is no denying Munoz' hands have been looking better each fight. Since he brought in raf cordiero and this philipino boxing champ (forget his name, but he's pretty old skool) to refine his striking before he fought Atrain, he has looked really crisp.

Offensively crisp? Yes, perhaps. He blew Dolloway out of the water with deliberate speed. But defensively crisp? Not at all. He's still an enormous liability in that department. It's no coincidence that he's been dropped in four of seven of his UFC fights, and in spite of Cordero's influence, he still got tagged with clean, hard shots from Aaron Simpson consistently. You don't go from having a strike-magnetic face to being defensively crisp in the period of one year.

I'll say that Maia too, has also vastly improved stand up. I've watched the majority of both their fights, and i'm telling you I can really see the improvement in his stand up from his early wec/ufc bouts. He is wreckless at times, which might play into maia's game, but then again, I wouldn't be afraid of Maia's hands if I were Mark. I don't want to sound arrogant, but I think mark could fight with his hands down, that is how little power I give maia credit for. He can pepper, but he ain't got bombs.

I agree that Maia isn't a dangerous striker. He tends to lift his rear foot off the ground when throwing which is a boxing no-no in the sense that it detracts greatly from your power. That said, he's still decent enough in the stand-up to put some leather on Munoz. There's little evidence to suggest that Munoz isn't as defensively porous as he's always been.

Mark will showcase his stand up in this bout and people will finally realize this guy has made vast improvements and is one of the better strikers in the division.

That claim is unsubstantiated right now. The Dolloway fight didn't show us much other than Munoz's ability to throw a nasty hook. We'll see.

Dan Miller I wouldn't call outstriking him too great a feat.

Dan Miller's boxing isn't going to win him the Val Barker Trophy, but he's at least competent on the feet, and Maia was a step above him.

Yes, I'd actually call maia one of the best, and considered aoki isn't an abudabi champ (right?), I'd say he is better than aoki in pure grappling.

I'm speaking purely in terms of pulling guard and working from there.

Yet pulling guard against quarry and macdonald are a different story than pulling guard against a D1 wrestler - let alone a fighter who is much more athletic and physically powerful than quarry and macdonald imo.

Actually, MacDonald was much better equipped than Munoz to deal with Maia pulling guard because of his grappling ability. In spite of that, Maia nearly triangle choked him within 20 seconds. Later on, he swept him almost instantly.

D1 ASU captain A-train is a beast and munoz powered out of most hairy spots when they would clinch or scramble on the ground.

You forgot the part where Simpson took his back standing on a couple of occasions. Pretty significant in a discussion of a fight with Demian Maia, no?

Yes, his offensive wrestling hasn't translated well, but his defensive wrestling is solid imo (outside of catone, he has looked good in this aspect)

He was briefly taken down by Dolloway, was taken down by Okami, was taken down by Simpson, and (as you pointed out) was taken down by Catone (in a fight which he should have lost in my opinion). Grove tried to stand with him and Hamill kicked his head off. Not an awesome record of defensive wrestling.

Mark's clinch work can be dirty and if maia does get that close to pull guard I think he will be smashed with short shots from the inside or tossed aside.

Or Maia will lateral drop him like a JV wrestling castoff, as he did to Chael Sonnen. Like I said, Maia is very efficient at finishing takedowns once he gets inside. You're overvaluing Munoz's ability to "power out".

I'll eat my words, but I don't think this fight hits the ground once unless munoz takes it there or makes a stupid ass mistake.

Maia will definitely pull guard if he has to. He might even do that before trying to get a takedown.

While I don't think it says much, Munoz was rocked against grove, and while still in a daze he fended off sub attempts. I think its easy to see that munoz has better defense than chael...

So, apart from a Kendall Grove d'arce attempt (a submission which isn't at all easy to secure in an MMA fight), where is the other evidence to suggest that he has notably better submission defense than Sonnen? I don't think there is any.

I'm not saying he's worse than Sonnen, or even equally as bad. I'm saying there's no evidence to suggest that he has considerably better sub defense.

I also think his transitioning during scarmbles in his fight with Atrain was very pretty and showed his defensive grappling skills and ability to return to a favorable position.

Once again, Simpson took his back in one of those scrambles. We also saw barely anything of Munoz's defensive prowess off of his back (which is what's really significant).

-I agree that 'powering out' against maia might be far-fetched, but I see it happening (but again, I don't think it even gets to this point).

Unless Maia gets clobbered early, it will definitely get to that point. Maia will successfully pull guard at the very least.

I'll say that subbing J Mac was impressive because I know that guy can roll really well.

Not only did he submit MacDonald, but he absolutely dominated him on the ground for two and a half rounds. It was impressive that MacDonald lasted as long as he did.

I'll eat my words on this one, I normally don't act so confident, but I truly like munoz in this one. I think its lopsided, not as close as people are making it out to be, and I really can't believe so many people are picking maia. Good luck to us both!

All I'll say is, don't bet the house on Munoz. There's a reason why the line is close: Maia has a very clear path to victory too.

Best of luck to you as well.

[sirchadwick1]

Thanks for the responses and input guys... I'm always open to debate/solid discussion. I can completely understand why a lot of guys are on Munoz... but I'm not one of them, as I don't think he's improved to the point where he can handle Maia with the exception of a big shot. Maia's strength is regularly underestimated. I still remember when he fought against Miranda, I thought he'd be fighting off his back for most of the fight. But Maia was actually the one who gained top control for most of the night and that fight was so one-sided it's rarely even talked about. It seems that some are putting a lot of weight on the fact that Marquardt KO'd Maia in addition to Munoz' power. I wouldn't put too much on that seeing as how Maia has only been KO'd once in his career on a perfectly placed punch that caught him off guard early. Anderson couldn't even KO him in 5 rounds and Maia was getting some good shots in on him. And the way Maia took Sonnen down into the triangle position and then turned it over was a thing of beauty. I don't see why he can't do the same thing to a Munoz or at least find his back sooner or later. To me it still seems people are underrating the level of Maia's JJ in the ocatagon just b/c he has some decision wins as of late. Anyway, he's the favorite now on 5dimes.

Current line
-105 Munoz
-115 Maia

[bjpenn85]

Good points

[sirchadwick1]

Solid picks! How did you get weidman at -200!!!! I am tempted to still play him at the -300/-350 lines...
Cheers.

I wouldn't play Weidman at anything over -250 as he's still too green and could get caught. He's -500 now at bodog. I caught him at -200 on the early surprise bodog opening lines. Seriously, bodog rarely ever opens lines early so I was all over this one in addition to Kongo at -115.

[sirchadwick1]

Watch the first round of Munoz' fight with Grove. Grove almost KO's him w/ an uppercut and puts him in numerous bad positions (d'arce, guillotine, RNC, etc.) That shit won't fly against Maia. Munoz' takedowns look horrible here. I know Munoz went on to TKO Grove... but his chin isn't exactly steel and I think the "W" here is clouding everyones judgment in addition to his latest KO against Dolloway. Also, watch Maia v. Grove after Munoz v. Grove. Maia does fine going toe to toe with Grove, while Munoz can't quite get in on him. Maia also has an easier time taking Grove down with a single leg and keeping him there. I seriously feel that Munoz will find himself outclassed here and will definitely eat crow if I'm wrong.

http://www.mmabettingblog.com/2010/0...k-munoz-video/
http://www.ultimatefighter.com/fight...ve-demian-maia

[Vaughany]

Who's Maia been training with? He's been with Wanderlei in last few fights but Wanderlei has been trainin at Reign with Munoz recently which is interesting.

[kmdubya]

Who's Maia been training with? He's been with Wanderlei in last few fights but Wanderlei has been trainin at Reign with Munoz recently which is interesting.

If it's Steven Segal, watch out for the front leg kick from Maia (removing Munoz's head from his shoulders).

[sirchadwick1]

Who's Maia been training with? He's been with Wanderlei in last few fights but Wanderlei has been trainin at Reign with Munoz recently which is interesting.

JDS and the Blackhouse guys believe it or not lol.
So yeah Segal will probably give him a special move!

http://www.5thround.com/78060/mark-m...e-for-ufc-131/

[Vaughany]

haha yeah

Looks like Maia has been training with the Blackhouse guys...

Submission specialist Demian Maia, Munoz’s opponent at UFC 131, held his training camp in San Diego, California with Nogueira and dos Santos by his side.

“I know it’s a business and I’m not gonna take anything personal,” Munoz told TapouT Radio.

Some would be hurt or see it as an act of betrayal, but Munoz is a different breed of fighter. He’s widely known as one of the nicest, if not THE nicest, fighters in the sport.

“I trained with Junior dos Santos because he’s part of Black House and Junior’s actually training with Demian,” Munoz explained. “Nogueira was actually training with Demian before he found out that I was fighting Demian. It’s kind of a tangled web we’ve weaved.

“It’s pretty much like who has been training where. I’ve been training with Anderson for his last fight [against Vitor Belfort] and for Chael [Sonnen]. When he’s in L.A., I’ll train with him,” Munoz shared.

“Nogueira was training down in San Diego and I know that Maia was training there and Junior dos Santos is training there. It’s no hard feelings man. I come from the sport of wrestling, you had to wrestle your friends and your friends had to wrestle your friends.”

The 33-year-old understands there’s a lot on the line when he enters the Octagon this weekend, including the potential of putting himself in a position to possibly fight one of his friends down the road.

“I know that with a win over Demian it’s definitely gonna put me in the [title] mix. I’m just very prepared to step in there and prove a point,” stated Munoz.

[Vaughany]

JDS and the Blackhouse guys believe it or not lol.
So yeah Segal will probably give him a special move!

http://www.5thround.com/78060/mark-m...e-for-ufc-131/

haha posted above at same time!

[sirchadwick1]

Looks like we are on different sides in this one V... hehe.

[kmdubya]

So yeah Segal will probably give him a special move!

That dude is everywhere! This morning he jumped out of my cereal box and gave me a judo slap before disappearing in a cloud of smoke.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Appreciate the response.



Offensively crisp? Yes, perhaps. He blew Dolloway out of the water with deliberate speed. But defensively crisp? Not at all. He's still an enormous liability in that department. It's no coincidence that he's been dropped in four of seven of his UFC fights, and in spite of Cordero's influence, he still got tagged with clean, hard shots from Aaron Simpson consistently. You don't go from having a strike-magnetic face to being defensively crisp in the period of one year.



I agree that Maia isn't a dangerous striker. He tends to lift his rear foot off the ground when throwing which is a boxing no-no in the sense that it detracts greatly from your power. That said, he's still decent enough in the stand-up to put some leather on Munoz. There's little evidence to suggest that Munoz isn't as defensively porous as he's always been.



That claim is unsubstantiated right now. The Dolloway fight didn't show us much other than Munoz's ability to throw a nasty hook. We'll see.



Dan Miller's boxing isn't going to win him the Val Barker Trophy, but he's at least competent on the feet, and Maia was a step above him.



I'm speaking purely in terms of pulling guard and working from there.



Actually, MacDonald was much better equipped than Munoz to deal with Maia pulling guard because of his grappling ability. In spite of that, Maia nearly triangle choked him within 20 seconds. Later on, he swept him almost instantly.



You forgot the part where Simpson took his back standing on a couple of occasions. Pretty significant in a discussion of a fight with Demian Maia, no?



He was briefly taken down by Dolloway, was taken down by Okami, was taken down by Simpson, and (as you pointed out) was taken down by Catone (in a fight which he should have lost in my opinion). Grove tried to stand with him and Hamill kicked his head off. Not an awesome record of defensive wrestling.



Or Maia will lateral drop him like a JV wrestling castoff, as he did to Chael Sonnen. Like I said, Maia is very efficient at finishing takedowns once he gets inside. You're overvaluing Munoz's ability to "power out".



Maia will definitely pull guard if he has to. He might even do that before trying to get a takedown.



So, apart from a Kendall Grove d'arce attempt (a submission which isn't at all easy to secure in an MMA fight), where is the other evidence to suggest that he has notably better submission defense than Sonnen? I don't think there is any.

I'm not saying he's worse than Sonnen, or even equally as bad. I'm saying there's no evidence to suggest that he has considerably better sub defense.



Once again, Simpson took his back in one of those scrambles. We also saw barely anything of Munoz's defensive prowess off of his back (which is what's really significant).



Unless Maia gets clobbered early, it will definitely get to that point. Maia will successfully pull guard at the very least.



Not only did he submit MacDonald, but he absolutely dominated him on the ground for two and a half rounds. It was impressive that MacDonald lasted as long as he did.



All I'll say is, don't bet the house on Munoz. There's a reason why the line is close: Maia has a very clear path to victory too.

Best of luck to you as well.

Hey man, good response... 'Now allow me to retort!' Btw, how do you quote me line by line like that? I am not too tech savy and don't know how to do it, it would make our discussion easier for me...

-He might not be defensively 'crisp' or 'sound' per se, but I feel he has improved enough that he has much better stand up defense. Atrain did land some solid shots, yet munoz took them and did get the better of the stand up exchanges with a guy who has mean KO power - I think that nods a little of improvement in his defense either way you look at it. Furthermore, I don't think he needs to worry too much on striking defense against maia's plentiful, but weak shots. He might land some small peppers on munoz, but nothing that will hurt him (I will shoot myself if maia (t)KO's him haha). Mark on the other hand, its bombs away. If anything, I was talking about Mark's offensive striking, which I think has certainly improved. I'm either giving mark too much credit on the feet, or maia too little. But I really think Saturday's fight will show us that mark has a clear stand up advantage and has vastly evolved his stand up game. I could be completely wrong, but we shall see!

-I disagree on J mac being better equipped to defend guard pulling or tds in general. He has been taken down by guys with much less td ability, whether it is pulling guard or str8 shooting. I think the better your hips and lower back strenght, the better you are at defending guard (and tds in general)...this ability is most apparent among elite wrestlers. I think an OSU D1 champ and wrestler's in general have better TD defense than BJJ practicioners or guys without collegiate experience (I realize this is a hotly debated subject right now, but I still favor my wrestling!)

-Indeed, Atrain got his back a few times. Yet Mark was getting in close on his own accord (as a matter of fact I think two of the times he got his back was when munoz attempted clinching or tds), he won't be stupid enough to pull that or get in close and tie up with maia. And unlike Atrain who couldn't do much when he got munoz' back, munoz reversed a few times in that fight when in a tie up, and at one point got Atrains back and dropped some serious leather on his dome piece.
Again, I don't see any successful guard pulling. munoz knows maia's strenghts and I would be surprised if he allows him the opportunity to capatilize on them. There will be no successful guard pulling imo, and I will be suprised if maia gets munoz down. But I've been surprised and completely wrong before, it's just how I envision and break this fight down in my head.

-I think its easy to see that munoz has better sub defense than chael. I think almost anyone in the ufc mw division has better sub defense than him (sorry, Chael).

He's also brought in to train one of the only guys to beat maia in BJJ tourneys numerous times, Marcel Louzado... I think this is an interesting factor when discussing munoz' potential bjj defense. Grove did go for a darce, but also went for a guillotine and I think another sub attempt too - all while munoz was rocked - which is impressive to me. Grove is not maia, but are we going to see munoz rocked against maia? I think not. Yet I will agree and say that we don't know about mark off his back. However He's popped up almost every time he was taken down - this is what I mean by his grappling defense, he is great at scrambles and transitioning and returning to a favorable position. Against maia that likely won't be easy and perhaps even possible (he is a BkofAma constrictor), but this is only applicable if it hits the ground for more than a few moments, which I don't think it will. Getting down munoz is a completely more challenging feat than maia's previous opponents, it will be much more difficult for maia to get munoz down and he won't be as successful like he was against other opponents. He also shot in on Anderson over a dozen times if I remember and failed miserably. Not to knock the great Anderson, but I think munoz has better Td than he does...

I feel like I am reapeating myself and rambling. Sorry if my rebuttal was weak lol. I am not betting the house, but I am making a larger than normal play, about 30% of my play stack. I'll either be broke, eating my words in this thread and contemplating suicide, or I'll be a very happy man raking in some nice cash after this fight!

Either way man good discussion. Check out this link below from mmamania. I love this guy's breakdowns and he broke it down in a similar manner. He didn't pick a winner, but I think you can tell by the article's tone that he favors munoz. http://www.mmamania.com/2011/6/8/221...n-maia-preview

Good luck and enjoy the fights brotha!

[sirchadwick1]

+4.71u on the night thanks to JDS, Weidman, and Stout.

Thought Maia looked great in the first round... but he lost aggression and Munoz did enough to get the nod.
That line was accurately set... moreso than I originally thought. Congrats to the Munoz backers!