[raiders72001]

Indictment will be unsealed in the morning.

[raiders72001]

Hearing 10am EST

[eidolon]

BREAKING: SBF has been charged with wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering, per NYT.

Will there be a public stoning?

[bigtymer56]

US Attorney SDNY: Earlier this evening, Bahamian authorities arrested Samuel Bankman-Fried at the request of the U.S. Government, based on a sealed indictment filed by the SDNY. We expect to move to unseal the indictment in the morning and will have more to say at that time.

Somebody high up didn't want him speaking at that hearing. Lmao.

[Sawyer]

Bitcoin cannot be regulated. I'm against regulations actually. I don't need state to protect or control me. My money is my money. I'm a free man. I can do whatever I want.

Regulations will kill altcoins btw. SEC will call %99 of them as unregistered security.

[Yulia74]

Will there be a public stoning?

denied bail

[icon]

Almost 2,000 Bitcoin are being withdrawn from Binance. EVERY SINGLE HOUR.

[JIBBBY]

Crypto can't be trusted anymore after this FTX scam crap!

Many investors will be pulling out of Crypto when this thieving fat kid is extradited from the Bahamas and goes to trail and when this story REALLY gets plastered all over the world news daily.

[Optional]

Crypto can't be trusted anymore after this FTX scam crap!

Many investors will be pulling out of Crypto when this thieving fat kid is extradited from the Bahamas and goes to trail and when this story REALLY gets plastered all over the world news daily.

If the bleeding stops and no other big disasters happen, FTX will be no more important to investor types than Mt Gox is now, in time.

In fact if they believe this exposed an issue that gets plugged and more oversight put in place, it could have a positive effect in the not too distant future.

I'm still buying weekly.

[JIBBBY]

If the bleeding stops and no other big disasters happen, FTX will be no more important to investor types than Mt Gox is now, in time.

In fact if they believe this exposed an issue that gets plugged and more oversight put in place, it could have a positive effect in the not too distant future.

I'm still buying weekly.

Maybe you are right.

I still have some chump change sitting in Bitcoin and Litecoin now that I probably won't touch as the prices are still very low considering. I hate selling at low prices.

I'm personally not confident in Crypto anymore. That's just me, not a lot of oversight and regulations in place so fraud can happen.

[raiders72001]

If the bleeding stops and no other big disasters happen, FTX will be no more important to investor types than Mt Gox is now, in time.

In fact if they believe this exposed an issue that gets plugged and more oversight put in place, it could have a positive effect in the not too distant future.

I'm still buying weekly.

Good points. Bad news better than no news.

[Arky]

Here's a positive:

June 2018 to September 2020 - the last bear market - the total market cap never went over 400B for a 2+ year period.

Current total market cap is hanging around 850B. Translation = this bear market is better off than the bear market 2-3 years ago. More people are invested, there is more money in crypto despite the recent calamities.

So far. If we see total market cap dip below 400B, now that would be concerning....

[Optional]

Maybe you are right.

I still have some chump change sitting in Bitcoin and Litecoin now that I probably won't touch as the prices are still very low considering. I hate selling at low prices.

I'm personally not confident in Crypto anymore. That's just me, not a lot of oversight and regulations in place so fraud can happen.

Natural reaction.

I suspect the few alts I bought in to might end up as losses but my long term faith in BTC hasn't wavered at all. I'm pleased to have had a chance to buy in slowly for more for the past few months.

[homie1975]

holding nicely at 17,400 even after the worst NASDAQ day in 3 mos.

this is good news !

[Yulia74]

Calvin O'Larry

https://twitter.com/i/status/1603419542801321987

[raiders72001]

Natural reaction.

I suspect the few alts I bought in to might end up as losses but my long term faith in BTC hasn't wavered at all. I'm pleased to have had a chance to buy in slowly for more for the past few months.

I think APE will be fine even if they call it a security. It's insane the contacts they've made and I'm hoping they are real instead of SBF type contacts. When APE almost immediately went up on most of the exchanges, that was enough for me to make me a believer.

[Optional]

I think APE will be fine even if they call it a security. It's insane the contacts they've made and I'm hoping they are real instead of SBF type contacts. When APE almost immediately went up on most of the exchanges, that was enough for me to make me a believer.

I only bought $1000 each of APE, XRP, ETH and SHIB. They are worth $695, $992, $819 and $245 today.

[raiders72001]

I only bought $1000 each of APE, XRP, ETH and SHIB. They are worth $695, $992, $819 and $245 today.

Bull run can't come soon enough.

[Arky]

I only bought $1000 each of APE, XRP, ETH and SHIB. They are worth $695, $992, $819 and $245 today.

You are not alone. The drop in the bull market was sudden and didn't make sense at the time. I had so many alts I should have unloaded. Now, it is wait-it-out time again. It's probably going to be another 20 months or so of sideways/lower....

[Arky]

Bitcoin cannot be regulated. I'm against regulations actually. I don't need state to protect or control me. My money is my money. I'm a free man. I can do whatever I want.

Regulations will kill altcoins btw. SEC will call %99 of them as unregistered security.

I'm with Sawyer. Regulation is a bad thing. Regulation is asking the crooks to run off all the other crooks so one can feel "safe". No doubt, regulation of some kind is on the way. Will you like it when you see what they have in store?

[milwaukee mike]

I'm with Sawyer. Regulation is a bad thing. Regulation is asking the crooks to run off all the other crooks so one can feel "safe". No doubt, regulation of some kind is on the way. Will you like it when you see what they have in store?

even the threat of regulation has auditors quitting every crypto project, miner, etc... just imagine the reporting requirements for an alt coin, and how the heck are you going to even find someone in the accounting or legal world willing to file that stuff? us government could essentially make alt coins illegal overnight

[raiders72001]

even the threat of regulation has auditors quitting every crypto project, miner, etc... just imagine the reporting requirements for an alt coin, and how the heck are you going to even find someone in the accounting or legal world willing to file that stuff? us government could essentially make alt coins illegal overnight

They could but if they overshoot, I think it'll backfire.

[milwaukee mike]

They could but if they overshoot, I think it'll backfire.

who knows... even owning gold was illegal from 1933-1974, can you imagine turning in your gold for $20/ounce, holding the $20 in cash while gold goes to $1800 lol... now you can rebuy 1 ounce for every 90 your grandpa turned in

[raiders72001]

Coinbase Reaches $100 Million Settlement With New York Regulators

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/04/b...aundering.html

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Raiders, do you make anything of the recent BTC price move? Has gone from 16.8 to 17,268 in last week or so.

Move has been gradual, too. If BTC's limited supply is a hedge against inflation, I think this can continue.

IE, supply/demand should move the price up at a rate of inflation. So, purchasing power remains constant.

Next BTC halving event about 14 months away.

[homie1975]

Raiders, do you make anything of the recent BTC price move? Has gone from 16.8 to 17,268 in last week or so.

Move has been gradual, too. If BTC's limited supply is a hedge against inflation, I think this can continue.

IE, supply/demand should move the price up at a rate of inflation. So, purchasing power remains constant.

Next BTC halving event about 14 months away.

BTC considered a risky asset to the Institutional Investors who make up about 70% of the stock market so probably the same percentage of Crypto market namely BTC and ETH.

the "risky assets" in stocks are the Tech high fliers and cloud kings so if those went up huge on Friday i think it was natural for BTC to also.

the correlation between nasdaq and crypto is probably 80% now.

as nazzy goes up big or down big, crypto seems to follow right after the session closes and typically in the evenings.

[raiders72001]

Raiders, do you make anything of the recent BTC price move? Has gone from 16.8 to 17,268 in last week or so.

Move has been gradual, too. If BTC's limited supply is a hedge against inflation, I think this can continue.

IE, supply/demand should move the price up at a rate of inflation. So, purchasing power remains constant.

Next BTC halving event about 14 months away.

The only thing that I'm sure of is that there will be another huge bull run. It'll start before the halving. The question is when. Ethereum layer 2 solutions could be big when the run starts.

[homie1975]

When is the Next Bitcoin Halving? The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place in 2024 at block 840,000. On Mar 25, 2024 02:25:26 AM UTC the Bitcoin block reward is scheduled to drop from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The only thing that I'm sure of is that there will be another huge bull run. It'll start before the halving. The question is when. Ethereum layer 2 solutions could be big when the run starts.

Thank you, Raiders. You're a learned man.

I have to think back about the Halving. There's one video that explained the cycle the best.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Here's the video I was looking for:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xshrNzAqisk

This guy explained the ratios over time. He released that video in 2020 and called for BTC to hit $50,000 in 2021.

He was quite accurate in his prediction. And he didn't overdo it.

Raiders, why do you see the BTC price taking off BEFORE the Halving? Isn't the historical move AFTER the halving?

[Legions36]

The only thing that I'm sure of is that there will be another huge bull run. It'll start before the halving. The question is when. Ethereum layer 2 solutions could be big when the run starts.

I'm feeling the same way as you. Sure of what I know but this bear market is the hardest to figure out so far out of all of them. I used to be confident around the bottoms but this one I have no clue this time, my instincts usually kick in but not this time yet. GL I hope your doing good.

[bigtymer56]

Here's the video I was looking for:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xshrNzAqisk

This guy explained the ratios over time. He released that video in 2020 and called for BTC to hit $50,000 in 2021.

He was quite accurate in his prediction. And he didn't overdo it.

Raiders, why do you see the BTC price taking off BEFORE the Halving? Isn't the historical move AFTER the halving?

Seems like its pretty common knowledge now (at least for ppl in crypto) that bull markets happen after the halving, so more people are going to buy ahead of it in anticipation. That would be my guess.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Seems like its pretty common knowledge now (at least for ppl in crypto) that bull markets happen after the halving, so more people are going to buy ahead of it in anticipation. That would be my guess.

OK. That makes sense.

My basic thesis on this is that I think BTC will at least stay with the PACE of inflation.

Let's assume that BTC demand stays level. We know that BTC supply is MOSTLY fixed. I know it grows as a slow-pace.

Inflation has to go up in 2023, imho. So, any commodity price goes up in lock-step.

I easily see BTC hitting 20,000 soon (in months) based on the inflation tie alone. If we get appreciation based on the Halving and/or more Use-case, then it goes higher.

So, I'm bullish on BTC at the moment. Good time to get in, boys (IMHO).

[StackinGreen]

It'll draw down the first few months here with the markets, which will also deflate ... then by the mid to end of the year it'll finally decouple. New ATH in 2024.

[raiders72001]

Thank you, Raiders. You're a learned man.

I have to think back about the Halving. There's one video that explained the cycle the best.

It's really surprises me that everyone doesn't take halving into consideration. Most institutions invested at an awful time and these guys are brilliant. MicroStrategy is down about 30% with their total BTC purchases. When you throw $1b in long term it really doesn't matter.