Originally Posted by
EaglesPhan36
Rays/Pirates OVER 8.5
A little bit of a gut feeling play here as the #s might be hard to decipher with a rookie set to throw for PIT tonight. Jimmy Barthmaier is the righty set to take Ian Snell's spot in the PIT rotation. He has adequate #s in a combo season at Double & Triple-A with an ERA just over 4.00. Opposing him is Scott Kazmir and while his totals #s look like an UNDER play every time out (7 of 10 starts) ... I see some stats that could indicate a nice shot for the OVER tonight. Kaz has run up significant pitch totals in 5 straight starts, averaging over 110 per game and lasting just over 6 IP per start. In his last 2, he hasn't made it past the 6th. While the TB pen is sturdy, they have been a bit less so on the road with a 4.84 ERA compared to 3.21 on the season. Pirates remain a hot OVER team, hitting 8 of their last 10 in that direction. TB bats are hot with the sweep of the Marlins yielding no less than 6 runs in any game for the offense while PIT pitching is struggling, giving up 15 runs in two games to NYY & 8 in a prior game to TOR. Their pen is getting hosed lately with an 8.31 ERA in their last 10. If TB gets to Barthmaier early, I like the chances here even with Kazmir likely to stifle the PIT bats. One more note ... Kazmir's lone start at PNC Park in '05, he was torched for 9 ER in 4.2 IP. He was 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA that season.