I love today's card, I will have a few big plays and might have a VERY big play.
Indians Vs Mariners UNDER 7.5 -120:
Under is 6-1 in Hernandezs last 7 starts overall.
Under is 5-1 in Hernandezs last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
Under is 4-0 in Hernandezs last 4 road starts vs. Indians.
Under is 10-1-1 in the last 12 meetings in Cleveland.
Felix is one of the best, we all know that, he will do his job as he always does, but he won't get good run support, which he never does. To add to that a weak Seattle offense, and this game should go well UNDER even though Masterson is not very good lately.
Braves -131:
Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Dodgers are 2-12 in their last 14 road games.
Braves are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Braves are 4-0 in Jurrjens' last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Braves are 6-0 in Jurrjens' last 6 home starts.
Home team is 4-0 in Estabrooks last 4 Sunday games behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Estabrooks last 5 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
Jurrenjs is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA in last eight starts. He is VERY solid at home and with the fact the Braves are one of the best home teams and the Dodgers are terrible on the road, this should be another win for the strong Braves.
Padres +1.5 -145:
This match up has been very one-sided this season, and even though the Giants won yesterday, it still is. The Padres and Giants showed great defense and not a lot of offense is a low scoring game. Today Timmy the pitcher I have tailed for 2 seasons, became fade material. His control is off, he gives up a lot of runs and doesn't last a lot of innings. His pitches well against the Pades but LeBlanc also pitches well against the Giants.
I expect another 1 run win for one side, and I do believe the Padres can pull it off. I love the price for the +1.5 here and I will take advantage of it, big.
* MONSTER play.
WhiteSox -140:
Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.
Tigers are 1-4 in Galarragas last 5 starts.
Tigers are 1-5 in Galarragas last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
White Sox are 22-4 in their last 26 home games.
White Sox are 6-0 in Garcias last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
White Sox are 5-1 in Garcias last 6 home starts.
White Sox are 14-2 in Garcias last 16 starts vs. Tigers.
White Sox are 5-1 in Garcias last 6 home starts vs. Tigers.
Home team is 8-1 in Danleys last 9 games behind home plate.
This is my 3rd biggest bet of the season.
The Tigers didn't win a road series in three months. Garcia is 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA in three starts this season against Detroit and 18-5 with a 3.66 ERA in 29 career outings, including 9-1 in the last 12. The 18 wins are his most versus any opponent. Galarranga is 0-4 with a 5.31 ERA in seven starts and 0-1 with a 5.60 ERA in his last three road starts against the White Sox.
The WhiteSox are the most dominante team in the last two months, the lose yesterday was a total fluke and against a team that is done this season and is playing terrible on the road with one of the best home pitchers in the league and a VERY home favorite ump, this should be an easy and very big pay day.
* MONSTER play.
Nats Vs Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 +110:
Over is 9-2 in Diamondbacks last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 12-3 in Diamondbacks last 15 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Strasburgs last 5 starts overall.
Over is 6-1 in Campos' last 7 games behind home plate.
Two important things here: pretty weak pen's and great OVER ump. With that Strasburg won't pitch more than 6 innings leaving the pen a lot of work. With the price and a low total this should hit big time.
Jays +120:
This game has a few interesting things to it. First of all Romero which is a very good pitcher that is a little struggling lately signed a very big new contract with the Jays until 2015 and will look to give a strong performance after that sign of trust from his club. With that the Jays have a strong away record, some of the best hitters in the league and had a few very nice wins lately.
On the other side the Angels that had a lot of ups and downs this season with Haren on the mound, he is having a terrible season. Bu he loves playing the Jays. He is 5-0 in his last six starts against the Blue Jays despite a 5.85 ERA.
I don't take a lot of importance in that stat, Haren won 1 game in his last 11 that is a crazy stat. Romero will pitch well and the Jays always hit. With the price I love this spot.
Mets Vs Phillies UNDER 8.5 -105:
So far in 5 games between the teams at Queens there was a SO. Today, with two strong pitchers that struggled but generly pitch very well, and with the Phillies with their top hitters out and the Mets that never really score that much, the UNDER here is very strong.
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in New York.
Under is 8-2 in Pelfreys last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Kendricks last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
Pelrefy started the season as the Mets best pitcher, struggled and played amazing in his last game. He also does very well against the Phillies. He is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four career outings at Citi Field against the Phillies. Kendrick was pitching very well until his last outing. He was 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his previous three starts.
They both should keep this game very tight to the end.
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Facts behind the picks - 8.15
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